1. Jennifer Murray Traffic Forecasting Section Chief, WisDOT Metropolitan Planning Organization Quarterly Meeting July 28 th, 2015

2. 2  Analysis  Respond to WisDOT business needs using data  Air quality modeling (Commercial VMT)  Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design software inputs  Cooperate and establish partnerships  Clarify WisDOT’s current statewide truck model capabilities  Truck traffic to, from, within and through Wisconsin  Truck forecasts, corridor truck growth rates, new routes  Truck vehicle-miles of travel (VMT)

3. SHRP2 Focus Areas 1) Safety2) Renewal3) Reliability4) Capacity C20 Implementation Grants Tour-Based Modeling  Create behavior-based freight models & data improvements  Take conventional practices, and integrate new model methods and data innovation  Break down barriers and create new interactions  Support freight transportation needs through good planning and operations management  Provide transferrable practices and methods, others can use 3

4. Create a statewide freight forecasting framework that  integrates travel demand modeling with freight analysis tools  provides performance metrics and  analyzes alternative strategies to move freight 4

5.  Create a Behavior or Tour -based Freight Model System  Improve and Expand WisDOT Knowledge  Standardize Analysis through Tools and Models  Freight Industry / Supply Chain Practices  Sound Economic Principles  Multi-modal Movement  Use Data at Appropriate Scale  Discuss Policies with Others  Compare to Current Model (Trip-based) 5

6. Scenario: Freight flows from the Port of Los Angeles to Madison through a distribution center in Kansas City 6 Trip-based Change in demand through Kansas City cannot be estimated given a new, more attractive interchange point in Milwaukee Tour-based The shift in Madison-bound freight flows through Kansas City to the new Milwaukee interchange point can be calculated

7. 7 Open TourClosed Tour I-94 WI/MN state line from Tomah to Maple Bluffs Cedarburg to Whitefish Bay to Greenfield with return to Cedarburg

8. 8 CharacteristicOpen (Supply Chain)Closed (Local Tours) Tour Type Open (chain start location is not the same as chain end location) Closed (tour start location is the same as tour end location) Origins and destinations One may end outside of the regionBoth ends are inside the region Distance May be hundreds of milesTypically <100 miles Duration One or more daysLess than one day Shipments included OneOne or more Cargos/commodities included OneOne or more Modes included Truck, rail, water, airTruck Vehicles included One or moreOne

9. 9 Open (Supply Chain) Data on industry locations Costs of using various methods Interchange points or transportation logistics nodes Closed (Local Tours) Location and type of land use activities at stop locations Truck touring data Number of stops per tour Distance between stops

10. 10 Madison Milwaukee Kansas City Halifax

11. 11 Closed tour originating in Dane County based on ATRI Truck GPS data during April 2015

12.  Assess tour- model usefulness vs trip- model  Potential to provide more detailed answers  May be more difficult to validate, operate and maintain (data hog)  May identify benefits of a given project, but those benefits may accrue outside of Wisconsin, or at facilities not under control of WisDOT  Improved technical capacity  Potential improved freight industry and stakeholder connections  Improved WisDOT’s understanding of freight flows in relation to economic, land use, and other factors 12

13.  Policy sensitivity/scenario testing. Examples include  Milwaukee intermodal rail facility testing  Diversion of Asian freight shipments from west coast to east coast ports with the Panama Canal Expansion Project  Increases in truck fuel prices  Capacity expansion projects  Model validation using truck registration data, TRANSEARCH data, Truck Counts, and Truck VMT  Continued coordination 13

14.  Two types of freight touring models  Statewide, all mode, open tour supply chain freight model  Closed tour freight truck model within urbanized (MPO/RPC) areas  Comprehensive calibration and validation  Scenario / alternatives analysis and sensitivity tests  Documentation 14

15.  Clarified forecasting capabilities  Consistent freight forecasting tool set to evaluate needs  Documented patterns of freight in Wisconsin  More robust forecasts  Information for other types of decision-making  Improved stakeholder relationships  Knowledge transfer to other states, MPOs and others 15

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