1. National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 8 May 2012

2. Outline Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden, Florida Climate Center Stream flows and ground water status Brian McCallum, US Geological Survey Outlook David Zierden, FCC, FSU Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center El Niño phase forecasts Klaus Wolter, U Colorado, Climate Diagnostics Center International Research Institute for Climate and Society Summary and discussion

3. Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

4. Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Past 180 days http://water.weather.gov/precip/

5. 7-day Rainfall Totals

6. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Previous Month:

7. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Current: Previous month:

8. Lake Lanier Inflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500) Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

9. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

10. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

11. Groundwater Status http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

12. 5-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

13. 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

15. Precipitation Outlook 1-month 3-month (MAM) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

16. U.S. Drought Outlook

17. Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

18. Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

19. Multivariate ENSO Forecast Although ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next couple of months, the latest MEI forecast suggests a surprisingly strong tilt in the odds towards La Niña later this year Source: Klaus Wolter MonthsP La NiñaP El Niño MJ 201227% JA 201247%12% SO 201273%09% ND 201275%00%

20. Most models predict neutral conditions to continue through the summer About 40% of models forecast El Niño to develop in the fall http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.gif

21. Summary Recent rains have provided some relief to short term drought, but streamflows and groundwater levels remain critical Rain expected in the next 7 days should be sustain crops, but will not likely recharge reservoirs, streams, and groundwater There is a very high likelihood that streamflows will be below normal for the next three months We are currently in a Neutral phase, which is expected to continue though the summer There are contradictory forecasts for the fall, with 2 of 5 climate models predicting the development of El Niño and the multivariate ENSO index forecast showing more than 7 of 10 odds that La Niña will develop Suggestion: Because water supplies are already low, it would be prudent to prepare for another La Niña though we have some hope that El Niño will develop and bring fall and winter rains

22. References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Jeffry Dobur, SERFC Moderator: Keith Ingramm SECC Additional information General drought information http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ http://agroclimate.org/climate/ Streamflow monitoring http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

23. Thanks for joining us! Next briefing: Tuesday, May 22, 1:00 pm EDT