1. 2050 Global Energy Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th International Energy Week Moscow, 25 th October 2010

2. The Great Depression 1930th Industrialization State regulation 1950-1960th Crisis of virtual economy 2008-2010th Energy crisis of 1970th Battle for resources after the Cold war Crisis of the industrial phase 2050th Liberalization Postindustrial development 1980-2000th Industrial & ecological development State regulation 2020-3030th Global cycles & dynamics 1

3. Global energy consumption dynamics Crisis of the 2050th Crisis of the 2010th Crisis of the 193th Crisis of the 1970th Global primary energy consumption, btce Electricity & petrol Gas & nuclear Renewables New energy sources Coal 2

4. Globakl energy scenarios 2050 Divergence 2030th Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario 3 Global primary energy consumption, btce Crisis of the 2050th Crisis of the 2010th

5. Energy efficiency & global energy scenarios Global GDP, trln 2009 USD, PPP Global energy consumption, btoe 4 Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario - Energy-intensive - Energy savings - Energy efficiency

6. Energy sector shift to the developing countries CO2 emission, billion tonnes 5 Global energy consumption, btoe Fact OECD Reference scenario, OECD Stagnation scenario, OECD Innovative scenario, OECD Fact non-OECD Reference scenario, non-OECD Stagnation scenario, non-OECD Innovative scenario, non-OECD

7. Key trends in oil industry  Radical car fleet changes are possible  Gybrids & electric vehicles – up to 80% of car fleet in 2050 Oil consumption, mln tonnes 6 Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario Motor vehicle Electricity & heating Others Other transport Chemicals

8. Oil prices: wave dynamics by neural modeling  Downwards trend  From commodity market to service & technology market  Volatility reduction  The end of oil business Долл. 2009 г. за баррель 7 Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario

9. Key trends in gas industry Inevitable trends:  Shift to the developing countries  The share of unconventional gas rises  The share of LNG rises 8 Gas consumption, bcm Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario EU China US India Other OECDRussia Other non-OECD

10. Globalization VS regionalization International trade in oil consumption, % International trade in gas consumption, % 9 Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario

11. Key trends in electricity sector  Faster growth  Fuel competition  Renewables and new energy sources  Large potential market - electric vehicles  Innovation scenario - "Electric World" Electricity consumption, bln mWh 10 EU China US India Other OECDRussia Other non-OECD Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario

12. Key trends in renewables: maximum uncertainty and growth Renewables capacity additions, GW 11 Innovative scenario Stagnation scenario Reference scenario 2050 Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Renewable electricity consumption EU China US India Russia Other non- OECD Other OECD Renewables, % bln mWh

13. Reference scenario - carbon-intensive Geopolitics + consumption growth + technological inertia Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100% Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э. 12 Oil Coal Renewables (right axis) Gas Nuclear Oil Coal Biomass Renewables Gas Nuclear Hydro

14. Stagnation scenario - renewable Energy savings + climate policy+ renewables Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э. 14 Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100% Oil Coal Renewables (right axis) Gas Nuclear Oil Coal Biomass Renewables Gas Nuclear Hydro

15. Innovative scenario –renewables & nuclear Energy efficiency + smart energy sector+ market of technologies Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э. 13 Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100% Oil Coal Renewables (right axis) Gas Nuclear Oil Coal Biomass Renewables Gas Nuclear Hydro

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