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Wholesale Power Price Forecast 01/28/03 Current Trends Update March 11, 2003.

Published byBryan Waters Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Wholesale Power Price Forecast 01/28/03 Current Trends Update March 11, 2003."— Presentation transcript:

1 Wholesale Power Price Forecast 01/28/03 Current Trends Update March 11, 2003

2 Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003 Major updates since A&R forecast AURORA vendor updates: –updated model version –revised default curtailment blocks –finer WECC load-resource area definition (Baja & S. NV) Adjusted scope of PNW East & MT load-resource areas. Updated inventory of post-2000 completions and projects under construction. Heavy scrubbing of existing thermal resource data. NPPC revised load growth forecasts (PNW & other LRAs). NPPC revised fuel price forecasts and pricing structure. NPPC revised new resource characteristics. Reshaped seasonal distribution of planned outages. Added scheduled upgrades to LRA transfer capacity.

3 Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003 Current Trends case key assumptions I Projects scheduled for completion are completed; additional projects are market-driven. Suspended projects > 25% complete available as new resource options at reduced capital cost. Projects scheduled for retirement are retired; additional retirements are market-driven. $15/kW/yr point-to-point transmission & basic ancillary services cost plus 1.9% transmission loss penalty (except cogen & peaking units). NPPC medium case fuel price forecasts.

4 Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003 Current Trends case key assumptions II NPPC medium case load forecasts. New resource options: 540 MW gas-fired combined-cycle gas turbine (frame) 70 MW duct firing (power augmentation) for above 2 x 46 MW gas-fired simple-cycle gas turbine (aeroderivative) 100 MW wind plant 400 MW pulverized coal-fired steam-electric (ex. PNW-West & CA) 20 MW central-station solar photovoltaics Permanent production incentive for new renewables. SBC and RPS resource development where adopted. Oregon CO2 offset requirement for all new fossil units. $7.50/MWh green tag revenue for new renewables.

5 Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003 Price forecasts: Mid-Columbia

6 Northwest Power Planning Council: March 2003 Levelized Mid-Columbia price forecast (2006–25)

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