2. Supply and Demand is Not Sustainable Dr. Susan Krumdieck Department of Mechanical Engineering Dr. Andre Dantas Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tony Burton Energy Systems Engineer Cape Foulwind

3. What is this about?

4. Overview: Past Kaikuora The Role of Engineering Supply and Demand Continuous Growth Increasing Demand Present Future Sustainable Growth? Kyoto? Switch to Renewables? Service and Availability Continuity Energy Architecture

6. Manapouri Demand Supply (without tax) Supply (with tax) COSTCOST $ PRODUCTION QUANTITY S’ SP’ P Q Q’ SUPPLYDEMANDPrice Past Economics

7. Past Engineering Development Innovation Advancement Mt. Cook

8. We also know from the past: The Supply and Demand Model most closely represents the “bloom and collapse” cycle of bacteria and other single-cell biota

10. Problems of Unlimited Growth: Food Forests Fisheries Water War Waste Peak Oil Global Climate Change Population Mass Extinction Whanganui River

11. Modern Economics Supply and Demand Sustainable Growth Triple Bottom Line Accounting Green Image Marketing Incentives / Carbon Tax Price Signals for Switch to Alternatives Sustainable Development

12. Modern Energy Engineering Energy is no longer “too cheap to meter” The Environment is no longer “a free dumping ground” Energy Resources Supply Cost DemandEnd Use Environment Costs Health Costs Catlins Motion Sensors for Lights Build Bike Paths Energy Auditing Load Management Ripple Control Deregulation Market Pricing Fund Research on Fuel Cells Upgrade Power Networks Subsidies for Wind Farms Research into BioFuels

13. Sustainable Economy Goals Environmental Impacts Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Green Products Sustainable Development Appropriate Technology Monowai

14. Stone Jet Substitute Renewable Energy and Green Products into the fossil fuel system, and you end up with… Nelson

15. Moeraki

16. Farewell Spit

17. Lake Matheson What will happen is what has always happened

18. Future: Engineering Change Correctly Pose the Problem Theory Method Analysis Engineering Franz Joseph

19. Problem Definition Economics: Sustained Growth Ecology: Sustainable Environment Engineering: What ever you want Fox Glacier

20. Engineering Problem Definition: Stable energy and environmental resource architecture which provides well-being of civilization within the constraints of continuous resource availability Able Tasman

21. Theory Regional System Model Reference Input Controls Physical Plant Actuators Feedback Catlins

22. Systems Model West Coast

23. Strategic Analysis Methodology 1.Define the system and performance metrics 2.Define objectives for well-being 3.Build socio-economic and cultural history 4.Develop a regional system model 5.Develop Performance-Objective design for reference energy architecture 6.Evaluate critical change factors 7.Develop scenarios for evolution Cape Foulwind

24. Method “Achieve function and quality goals within the constraints of resource availability” Westport

25. Service and Availability Economy Consumers Producers & Suppliers $ Free Market Relationship Desired Services Sustainable Availability Sustainability Modelling Information Flows Natural Resources Environment Manapouri Available Services

26. West Coast Analysis and Modelling Real-Time Simulations Virtual Reality Experiential Interface Animation

27. Projects and New Technologies Moeraki Modelling Environment Comparator computational systems for real-time analysis and communication to the community in a generic and relevant way Communication of sustainable built system possibilities to all sectors of society Built Environment Communications systems for access to availability information Feedback processing of environmental impact data, and real-time mitigation systems

28. Stone Jets to supply demand Or we could keep trying to make Stone Jets to supply demand H 2 Express Biofuel Beauty Wind and Solar Salvation Nuclear Nonsense Fusion Foolishness H 2 Express

29. Thanks for your attention