1. LOGO The basic lines of scientific research into water resources

2. www.osenu.org.ua The basic lines of scientific research into water resources WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNDER LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE MODEL “CLIMATE-RUNOFF” DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON THE RIVERS TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF SNOW AND PRECIPITATION

3. www.osenu.org.ua WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN UKRAINE UNDER LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BASIS OF “CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL “CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL

4. www.osenu.org.ua PROJECT GOAL: To present efficiency of “climate – runoff” model in evaluation of water management transformation consequences

5. www.osenu.org.ua Project Members: Department of Land Hydrology, Odessa State Environmental University, 15 Lvovskaya Street, Odessa 65016, Ukraine Head of the Department of Land Hydrology – Eugen D. Gopchenko Leader of the Project– professor Nataliya S. Loboda (loboda@paco.net) Phone: 326-746 e-mail: gidro@ogmi.farlep.odessa.ua

6. www.osenu.org.ua “CLIMATE-RUNOFF” MODEL Climatic factors (precipitation, temperature) Underlying surface (swamps, lakes, cavern water, soil) Annual natural runoff Lifeconditioned runoff Water management actions (irrigation, drainage, swift transference of water, creation of artificial reservoirs)

7. www.osenu.org.ua PRINCIPAL QUESTIONS How do you estimate natural water resources? How do you take into account climatic changes in runoff calculations? How do you estimate runoff changes as a result of simultaneous global warning and water management transformation?

8. www.osenu.org.ua Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence can be described by means of the classical mechanics master equation of the Liuville type as follows: dY —+ L(Λ,Y)= ε dt Y(t) = Y(t0)-S L(Λ,Y)dt +S ε dt  У (t0 ) - natural flow;  Y(t ) - anthropogenic flow;  ε - external effect caused global warming;  L - operator of life-conditioned influence describing flow changes under water-management transformations (irrigation, additional evaporation from water surface of artificial water reservoirs, regenerated flow).

9. www.osenu.org.ua Annual Climatic Norms of Runoff Calculated by Meteorological Data  Zones of surplus (Yk140 мм),  sufficient (30Yk <140 мм) and insufficient (Yk<30 мм) humidity

10. www.osenu.org.ua Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes Water Resources under Natural State Scheme of Irrigative System in the South of Ukraine

11. www.osenu.org.ua Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes Water Resources under Natural State Critical scales f (%) of water surface in artificial reservoirs in the south – western Ukraine under initial climatic conditions Norms of climatic runoff, mm Critical scales f (%), under decreasing water resources 10%50%70%* 300,74,06,5 200,53,05,0 100,32,03,7 Destruction of Water System

12. www.osenu.org.ua Influence of Global Warming on the Natural Resources of Ukraine Resources of humidity (X), Resources of warmth and water resources (Y) in the central part of Ukraine under climatice conditions within the latest century and in accordance with the scenarios (1,2,3), (0) being the initial stage of global warming Maximum decrease of water resources comprises 25%, according to the Script 1

13. www.osenu.org.ua Response Functions for Long Time Average of Annual Lifeconditioned Runoff of Catchments The figure shows response functions for long time average (norm) of annual lifeconditioned runoff of catchments, situated on the Crimea pensula’s plain. Ordinates of these dependences are coefficients, characterizing changes to the norms of runoff under conditions of additional inflow from agricultural areas, irrigated by water of North Crimean Canal. The figure illustrates increasing norms of lifeconditioned runoff with growing areas of irrigation. If The anthropogenic effect depends on the level of optimal moistening of soil. At present time small rivers of the Crimean pensula’s plain are drainage canals. The red line shows the level of essential changes of runoff norms equal to 10%.

14. LOGO DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON THE RIVERS

15. www.osenu.org.ua DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA FLOOD SPRINGFLOOD WINTER SUMMERAUTUMN SPRING

16. www.osenu.org.ua OSENU TECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMUM RUNOFF OF THE RIVERS SCHEME OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION Precipitation Slope influx q` m Channel and flood plain storage Time lag of the flood wave Channel runoff q m Lakes, Reservoirs Forest Swamp

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18. LOGO TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF SNOW AND PRECIPITATION

19. Processing of on-line hydrometeorological data Scheme of long-term forecast for maximum flood k m =f[(S m +P 1 +P 2 )/(S o +P 1o +P 2о )] І. Qualitative forecast (model of discriminant function) DF=a o +a 1 x 1 +a 2 x 2 +…+a m x m Map for the forecast module coefficients (k m ) Derivation of the value for maximum flood INITIAL DATA BASE Basic data On-line data Morphometric features of water catchment Average perennial hydrological characteristics Depth of frost zone Water-storage of snow cover PrecipitationSoil moisture Air temperature ІІІ. Determination of probability of the forecast value in perennial period (Р%) Map for the probability (Р%) Estimation of forecast Forecast lead time ІІ. Quantitative forecast – derivation of module coefficient k m

20. www.osenu.org.ua весеннего половодья в 2003 г. Change of forecast module coefficient for maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003

21. www.osenu.org.ua Change in probability of forecast module coefficients for values of maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003 (in per cent)

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