1. Every Child, By Name and Face, To Graduation: Are my students at risk for negative outcomes? A look at the Early Warning System in WCSD

2. Essential Question How can we use the Early Warning System to better develop relationships with students as we support them on their pathways to graduation?

3. Fist to 5 Fist = I have never heard of the WCSD’s Early Warning System (previously the Risk Index). 1 = I have heard of it. 2 = I have seen the index. 3 = I have seen one or more student’s risk. 4 = I know where I can get the index for my own students. 5 = I have pulled the Early Warning System data for my students and consistently use it to plan supports for my students.

4. Need for Early Identification 2,078 Non-Graduates in 2009: Avg. credits earned: 7.15/22.5 Credits earned: 0 - 22 Average GPA: 1.58

5. Development of EWS Two clear paths of student disengagement from school : (1) Academic failure and struggle; (2) Behavioral reactions to school (misbehavior, school aversion; Janosz et al., 2000 ). Attendance, behavior, and course failures in 6 th grade predicted 60% of dropouts (Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver, 2007) Early interventions targeting attendance, behavior, and course failure can curb dropout (e.g. Balfanz et al., 2006; Herlihy & Kemple, 2005; Crone, Horner, & Hawken, 2004, Horner, Sugai, Todd, & Lewis-Palmer, 2005)

6. WCSD Early Warning System Attendance (0 - 2) Transiency (0 - 2) Retention (0 - 2) Reading/Math Scores (0 - 4) Credit Deficiency (0 - 4) Suspension (0 – 1) TOTAL RISK SCORE (0 – 15) 0 = No Risk 1 = Low Risk 2 = Moderate Risk 3+ = High Risk

7. (Modified) WCSD Early Warning System Attendance (0 - 2) Transiency (0 - 2) Retention (0 - 2) Reading/Math Scores (0 - 4) Credit Deficiency (0 - 4) Suspension (0 – 2) TOTAL RISK SCORE (0 – 12) 0 = No Risk 1 = Low Risk 2 = Moderate Risk 3+ = High Risk

8. Specific Calculations available in your book AND at https://BIG

9. Demographics Breakdown of Risk Status by Each Racial/Ethnic Population

10. Demographics Breakdown of Risk Status by Each Special Program Population

11. How Prescient is the EWS? Outcomes of Students Identified at Varying Levels of Risk: Using the Original Index Using the Modified Index (no test scores)

12. Risk Index 2012-2013 Risk Index Status and % Suspended at Least Once in 2013-2014 No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk Original Risk Index

13. No RiskLow RiskModerate Risk High Risk Original Risk Index

14. No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk Modified Risk Index

15. No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk Modified Risk Index

16. No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk Modified Risk Index

17. No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk Modified Risk Index

18. And What About Graduation?

19. Following our Freshmen Through High School 9 th Grader Risk Status (2010-2011) and 4-Year Cohort Graduation Outcomes (Class of 2014) N = 4,516 No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk

20. But…not a perfect predictor 31% (n = 417) of High Risk 9 th graders DID graduate 67% (n = 459) of Moderate Risk 9 th graders DID graduate How do we promote resilience and persistence?

21. Activity: Swap Meet! What is a characteristic of resilient kids you have observed in your work? Some protective factors may seem beyond the reach of the school (e.g. family support, attendance). What is a strategy you have used to support at-risk students’ resiliency? How can the EWS be used in your PLCs and IATs with an aim toward strengthening personal relationships and supporting core instructional practice?

22. Debrief

23. PLC Problem-Solving Process 1.Review the forms within your book (for your grade level) 2.On the same poster paper, record: 1.Universal supports and targeted supports you have within your classroom/school for the areas of need 2.Universal supports and targeted supports you need within your classroom/school for the areas of need

24. How Do We Obtain this Data? B.I.G. (Business Intelligence Gateway)

25. Early Warning Risk scores built into data warehouse dashboards

27. Discussion