1. ATMS 591 Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions Spring Quarter 2015

2. Logistics Class webpagewebpage Class meets 1:30-2:50 Mondays and Wednesdays in Room 406, ATG Building Instructor: Prof. Robert Wood [ATG 718, Phone 543-1203] Office Hours: flexible Prerequisites: ATM S 535: Cloud Physics and Dynamics, or by specific permission of the instructor. Textbook: No required textbook

3. Class description This graduate special topics class focuses on the general topic of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. The class aims to cover many aspects of this topic, including a review of the theoretical arguments linking aerosols and clouds, the use of field and satellite data, and process and climate models to understand the problem, and a consideration of past and future changes in aerosol indirect climate forcing.

4. ATMS 591: Learning Goals: 1. Understand the physical bases for aerosol-cloud interactions 2. Awareness of the important literature on the topic of aerosol- cloud-climate interactions 3. Understand how clouds are affected by aerosols and how cloud processes affect aerosols 4. Gain an appreciation for the concept of aerosol indirect forcing (also known as aerosol forcing by aerosol-cloud interactions) 5. Understand how observations and models are used to assess the climatological impacts of anthropogenic and natural aerosols.

5. Useful texts Atmospheric Science, an introductory survey, by J. M. Wallace and P.V.Hobbs (Second Edition), Academic Press. A Short Course in Cloud Physics, by M. K. Yau and R. R. Rogers. Elsevier, Jan 1989, ISBN: 978-0-7506-3215-7. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change, 2nd Edition. John H. Seinfeld, Spyros N. Pandis. ISBN: 978-0-471-72018-8, 1232 pagesJohn H. SeinfeldSpyros N. Pandis. Physics and Chemistry of Clouds, by Lamb and Verlinde: Cambridge University Press; 1st edition. Copies available in the UW Bookstore Physics and Chemistry of CloudsUW Bookstore Clouds in the Perturbed Climate System: Their relationship to energy balance, atmospheric dynamics, and precipitation. Edited by Jose Heintzenberg and Robert Charlson. MIT Press, 2009. Ernst Strungman Forum reports. ISBN 978-0-262-01287-4. Clouds in the Perturbed Climate System

6. Aerosol-cloud-climate interactions A definition – Two-way interactions between aerosol particles and clouds that influence regional and global climate “Two-way” interactions: – Aerosol particles influencing cloud radiative properties, a.k.a. aerosol indirect effects – Clouds influencing the properties of climatically important aerosol particles

7. Class organization Largely reading based – We will read and discuss/critique some of the key papers describing: The physical basis for aerosol-cloud-climate interactions How process models and observations are used to understand aerosol-cloud interactions How aerosol-cloud interactions are represented in climate models Past and future assessments of climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols

8. Class organization Projects – Each student will carry out a project during the second half of the quarter. The aim is to align this project to make it useful for your own research. Examples might include: Literature review of topic pertinent to your research Use of data from your own research, or from readily obtainable datasets to explore facets of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions Design simple model experiments to provide insights on physical bases for aerosol-cloud-climate interactions

9. Aerosol effects on clouds: Ship tracks in low clouds over the Bay of Biscay

10. Cloud impacts on aerosols

11. http://asr.science.energy.gov/science Myriad processes

12. Myriad aerosol-cloud-precipitation processes occurring within a climate model gridbox (or not) IPCC AR5, Chapter 7, Fig 7.16

13. IPCC “Radiative Forcing” Diagram IPCC 5 th Assessment Report (AR5), Summary for Policymakers, Fig. SPM.5, 2013 Understand physical bases for, and model representation of, this entry

14. Reading list (first few) Twomey, S., 1977: The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 34 (7): 1149–52.The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds. Albrecht, B. A., 1989: Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness. Science, 245, 1227–30.Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness Ramanathan, V. Aerosols, Climate, and the Hydrological Cycle. Science 294, no. 5549 (December 7, 2001): 2119–24. doi:10.1126/science.1064034.Aerosols, Climate, and the Hydrological Cycle Lohmann, U., and J. Feichter. Global Indirect Aerosol Effects: A Review. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 5, no. 3 (2005): 715–37Global Indirect Aerosol Effects: A Review.

17. The Twomey Effect

18. Twomey effect The paper(s) that “started it all” – Precursor papers Physical basis for growth of cloud droplets dates back to equations for diffusional growth from Maxwell (1800s). Applied to cloud droplet growth by Kraus and Smith (1949), Howell (1949), Squires (1952). Influence of composition of aerosol particles by Köhler (1921) Twomey’s own prior work (e.g. Twomey 1959, Twomey and Warner 1967) provided a clear influence of the concentration of aerosol particles on the concentration of cloud droplets Theoretical basis covered in ATMS 535

19. Twomey, S., and J. Warner, 1967: Comparison of Measurements of Cloud Droplets and Cloud Nuclei. J. Atmos. Sci., 24, 702–3

20. Twomey effect The paper(s) that “started it all” – Actually, Twomey (1974) was the first paper suggesting anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud albedo: Twomey, S., 1974: Pollution and the Planetary Albedo. Atmospheric Environment, 8, 1251–56.

21. Twomey effect Twomey (1974) – Actually, Twomey (1974) was the first paper suggesting anthropogenic aerosol impacts on cloud albedo: Twomey, S., 1974: Pollution and the Planetary Albedo. Atmospheric Environment, 8, 1251–56.

22. Twomey effect a.k.a. the first aerosol indirect effect

25. Theoretical expression for AIE Response of cloud optical thickness  to change in some aerosol characteristic property A Generally, because AIEs must be dominated by warm clouds and ice clouds formed by homogeneous freezing, the property most relevant to the problem is the cloud condensation nucleus concentration (CCN). Aerosol size and composition effects can also play a role primary feedback

26. Twomey Albrecht

27. (Mostly) regulating feedbacks in stratocumulus

28. Regional gradients: Strong aerosol indirect effects in an extremely clean background George and Wood, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2010 Albedo enhancement (fractional) Satellite-derived cloud droplet concentration N d low level wind

29. Observational evidence for the Twomey effect Painemal and Minnis (2012)

30. Model estimates of the two major aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) Pincus and Baker (1994) – 1 st and 2 nd AIEs comparable GCMs (Lohmann and Feichter 2005) 1 st AIE: -0.5 to -1.9 W m -2 2 nd AIE: -0.3 to -1.4 W m -2 Limited investigation of factors that control the relative importance of the two AIEs

31. Detecting aerosol impacts on cloud To determine aerosol-driven changes on C, one needs to measure meteorology-driven changes This is a particularly arduous task meteorology-driven aerosol-driven Stevens and Brenguier (2009)

32. Shiptracks = 0

33. Shipping lanes Shipping emissions increase along preferred lanes Control clouds upstream; perturbed clouds downstream Peters et al. (ACP, 2011) Observed  f  0.02-0.03 = 0.06 K -1 × 0.4 K = 0.024 Klein and Hartmann (1993) A cloud cover increase of 0.02 represents a radiative forcing of 2 W m -2

34. What about ice? de Boer et al. (2013)

35. Summary Uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity largely controlled by uncertainty in how clouds will change. – Low clouds constitute largest source of error, but high clouds show robust changes Aerosol forcing, including effects on clouds, is likely a significant fraction of CO 2 forcing. – Aerosol-cloud interactions important for determining overall aerosol forcing – Low clouds primary culprits, but ice phase may be important