1. Challenges for Regional Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean Mauricio Mesquita Moreira. Principal Economist Integration and Trade Sector XXXVII Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries. Washington D.C. June 18, 2013

2. Outline The motivation The road so far The results The challenges

3. Motivation Geopolitics security and political stability. Economic Transformation economies scale and learning, competition, public goods, FDI, lock in structural reforms, move faster with economic liberalization.

4. The Road So Far Where are we after decades of “new” regionalism?

5. Pre1994: The first steps Uruguay Paraguay Argentina Brazil Panama Nicaragua Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Dominican Republic Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago CARICOM CACM Source: IDB. Singapore Australia China Korea Japan EU EFTA Brunei Bahamas Haiti Thailand N.Z. Canada Mexico USA Bolivia Ecuador Peru Venezuela Colombia ACN MERCOSUR

6. Canada Uruguay Paraguay Argentina Brazil Mexico Chile Bolivia Ecuador Peru Venezuela Colombia Panama Nicaragua Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Dominican Republic Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago MERCOSUR ACN CARICOM CSME CACM Canada-CRI CAFTA-DR (CARICOM members but not in CSME) Chile- Cent. Amer. NAFTA ACE 35 ACE 36 Source: IDB. ACE 59 ACE 58 G-3 USA EU, EFTA Singapore Australia China Korea Japan EU Brunei TPP Bahamas Haiti EU- CARIFOUM EPA Thailand N.Z. 2000s: The Spaghetti bowl ASEAN ASEAN+6 ASEAN +3 ARCO PA UNASUR

7. Do results meet expectations? Partly… Geopolitics –Achievements in MERCOSUR (democratic safeguards, Brazil-Argentina military rivalry) and CARICOM; –But difficulties in the Andean Community (rivalry Colombia/Venezuela, individual negotiations) and in MERCOSUR (Doha, Europe and China)

8. Economics –The agreements were effective in bringing down barriers and boost intraregional trade but have lost momentum in the last decade and…

9. …the impact on extra regional competitiveness was marginal at best

10. The challenges How to interpret the results? Is the “new” regionalism doomed to be irrelevant? Not necessarily, but governments have to double their “bets”

11. The challenges Three key issues 1) Convergence 2) Investment in infrastructure 3) Deepening

12. 1) Convergence Need for a regional market without the “spaghetti” (rules of origins), key to maximize economies of scale and develop regional value chains..

13. 2) Infrastructure Without investment in infrastructure, there is neither “enlarged market effect” nor greater share of the world markets

14. 3) Deepening LAC South-South agreements can only make a difference in the context of deep integration. But that requires: Bring external tariffs down to avoid trade diversion; Get rid of the remaining intra-regional tariff and non-tariff barriers level the regulatory “playing-field” Convergence of the macro policies frameworks. The key question: Is there political will for this agenda?