1. The Fertility Transition
Chapter 6
The Fertility Transition

2. Chapter Outline What Is Fertility? Measuring Fertility
The Preconditions For A Decline In Fertility
How Can Fertility Be Controlled?
Proximate Determinants Of Fertility

3. Chapter Outline Explanations For High Fertility
Motivations For Lower Fertility Levels
How Is The Fertility Transition Accomplished?
Case Studies In The Fertility Transition

4. Fertility Transition
Shift from high fertility, with minimal individual control, to low fertility, which is entirely under a woman’s control.
Involves a delay in childbearing and an earlier end to childbearing.
Frees women and men from unwanted parenthood and allows them to space their children.

5. Number of Births Possible
Average woman could bear a child every 2.2 years - potential of 16 children per woman
A woman can bear a child between the ages of 15 and 49.
Each pregnancy lasts a little less than nine months.
There’s an average of 18 months between the end of one pregnancy and the beginning of the next.

6. Number of Births Possible
Why 16 children per woman is not likely:
Pregnancy is dangerous - many women would die before delivering their 16th child.
Pregnancy requires good nutrition and health care.

7. Hutterite Fertility

8. Period Measures of Fertility
Commonly used in population studies, includes:
Crude birth rate
General fertility rate
Child-woman ratio
Age-specific fertility rate
Total fertility rate
Gross reproduction rate
Net reproduction rate

9. Preconditions for a Substantial Fertility Decline
Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid element in marital fertility.
Perception of advantages from reduced fertility.
Knowledge and mastery of effective techniques of control.

10. Dealing with Unwanted Children
Infanticide, or general neglect or inattention that leads to early death.
Fosterage of child by another family that needs or can afford it.
Orphanage - involves abandoning a child so she or he is likely to be found and cared for by strangers.

11. Intermediate Variables - Social Factors Influence on Fertility
Exposure to intercourse.
Formation and dissolution of unions.
Age of entry into sexual unions.
Permanent celibacy.
Amount of reproductive period spent after or between unions.
Unions broken by divorce, separation, or desertion.
Unions broken by death.

12. Intermediate Variables - Social Factors Influence on Fertility
Exposure to intercourse within unions.
Voluntary abstinence.
Involuntary abstinence (from impotence, illness, unavoidable but temporary separations).
Coital frequency (excluding periods of abstinence).

13. Intermediate Variables - Social Factors Influence on Fertility
Exposure to conception.
Fecundity or infecundity, as affected by involuntary causes, including breast-feeding.
Use or nonuse of contraception.
By mechanical and chemical means.
By other means.
Fecundity or infecundity as affected by voluntary causes (sterilization, medical treatment).

14. Intermediate Variables - Social Factors Influence on Fertility
Factors affecting gestation and successful parturition.
Fetal mortality from involuntary causes (miscarriage).
Fetal mortality from voluntary causes (induced abortion).

15. Contraceptive Methods
Primary User
Female
Male
Couple
Barrier
Diaphragm Cervical cap Female condom Spermicides IUD Diaphragm
Condom

16. Contraceptive Methods
Primary User
Female
Male
Couple
Chemical
Precoital
Pill Mini-pill Implants Injectables
Postcoital
Emergency contraceptive pills

17. Contraceptive Methods
Primary User
Female
Male
Couple
Natural
Breast-feeding
Withdrawal
Abstinence Fertility awareness Oral/anal sex
Surgical
Tubal ligation
Vasectomy

18. Fertility Control: Women in the U.S.
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Not using contraception
70.2
36.6
30.7
27.3
27.1
28.5
Female sterilize
0.3
3.9
17.0
29.4
40.9
49.8
Male sterilized
0.0
1.1
4.5
10.5
18.7
20.3
Pill
43.6
52.2
39.0
11.1
5.9

19. Fertility Control: Women in the U.S.
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Implant
2.7
3.8
2.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
Injectable
9.7
6.2
4.2
1.8
1.1
IUD
0.0
0.8
1.3
Diaphragm
0.6
0.9
2.3
Condom
36.6
26.3
24.2
18.4
16.9
12.3

20. Fertility Control: Women in the U.S.
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Female condom
0.0
0.2
Periodic abstinence
1.3
0.9
1.7
3.2
2.9
2.5
NFP
0.3
0.4
0.5
Withdrawal .3
3.8
2.0

21. Contraceptive Effectiveness
Method
Theoretical Effectiveness
% of Couples Pregnant During First Year of Use
None
Chance
85.0
Implants (Norplant)
Virtually no failures
0.09
Injectables (Depo-Provera)
0.3
IUD
2.0

22. Contraceptive Effectiveness
Method
Theoretical Effectiveness
% of Couples Pregnant During First Year of Use
Pill
Virtually no failures
3.0
Male condom
Very few failures
12.0
Diaphragm/cap
Some failures
18.0
Withdrawal
19.0

23. Contraceptive Effectiveness
Method
Theoretical Effectiveness
% of Couples Pregnant During First Year of Use
Fertility awareness
Some failures
20.0
Female condom
21.0
Spermicides
Vaginal sponge
24.0

24. Abortion Rates Throughout the World
Country
Abortion Rate
Abortion Ratio
Russia 68 63
Belarus 62
Cuba 78 59
Ukraine 57 58
Vietnam 83 44
Kazakhstan 41
Chile 50 35

25. Abortion Rates Throughout the World
Country
Abortion Rate
Abortion Ratio
Brazil 41 30
China 26 27
United States 23
Sweden 19 25
Korea (South) 20
Canada 16 22
Japan 13
Italy 11 21

26. Abortion Rates Throughout the World
Country
Abortion Rate
Abortion Ratio
England and Wales 16 20
New Zealand 19
France 12 18
Mexico 25 17
Egypt 23
Philippines
Germany 8 14

27. Abortion Rates Throughout the World
Country
Abortion Rate
Abortion Ratio
Israel 14 13
Spain 6
Nigeria 25 12
Belgium 7 11
Netherlands
Ireland 9
Tunisia 8
India 3 2

28. Contraceptive Use and Fertility

29. Education of Women and the Fertility Transition

30. Changes in ASFRs in Context of the Fertility Transition

31. Fertility Transition in England

32. Fertility Transition in China

33. Baby Boom, Baby Bust, and Baby Boomlet, U.S.

34. Fertility by Ethnic Group, U.S.