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Thailand’s Energy Situation in 2010 and Trend in 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Thailand’s Energy Situation in 2010 and Trend in 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Thailand’s Energy Situation in 2010 and Trend in 2011

2 20092010* 20092010 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4* Consumption1,6631,7851,6121,6931,6511,6931,7841,7991,7641,792 Production8959918909008789119791,001992995 Import (Net)9229898929549419009901,082916969 Import/Consumption (%)55 56575356605254 Growth Rate (%) Consumption2.87.3-4.10.93.510.010.66.36.85.8 Production5.210.89.50.30.510.110.011.113.09.3 Import (Net)-4.07.3-19.2-3.63.110.611.013.4-2.77.6 GDP (%)-2.37.9-7.1-4.9-2.85.912.09.16.73.8 Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent * Preliminary data Consumption, Production and Import of Primary Commercial Energy

3 Growth Rate of Primary Commercial Energy Consumption 20092010* 20092010 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4* Total Consumption 1,6631,7851,6121,6931,6511,6931,7851,7991,7641,785 - Oil643657661637615658681643629676 - Natural Gas682783624695696712750793796789 - Coal205207186222215196213220209188 - Lignite9899981069792981029899 - Hydro/Imported Elec.35394432293643423241 * Preliminary data Oil Natural Gas Coal/Lignite GDP Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent

4 KBD of crude oil equivalent Oil Natural Gas Coal/Lignite Hydro/Imported Electricity 2% 17% 44% 37% Consumption of Primary Commercial Energy Import: 26% Import: 67% Import: 20% Import: 84% Domestic: 74% Domestic: 33% Domestic: 80% Domestic: 16% ConsumptionOilNatural GasCoalElectricityTotal Growth Rate (%)*2.214.71.211.67.3 * Preliminary data

5 Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption in 2010 Petroleum Products Electricity Natural Gas Lignite/ Coal Renewable Energy Total Growth Rate (%)* 15.611.239.22.70.813.8 * Preliminary data Total Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption: THB 1,796 billion*

6 Value of Energy Import Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas CoalElectricityTotal Growth Rate (%)* 18.5126.0-2.22.086.017.6 * Preliminary data Total Value of Energy Import: THB 895 billion* 2010

7 Value of Energy Export in 2010 Crude Oil Petroleum Products ElectricityTotal Growth Rate (%)*7.312.114.711.6 * Preliminary data Value of Energy Export, in total: THB 263.3 billion*

8 Crude Oil Import Decreased by 0.1 % 2006200720082009 2010* Growth Rate (%) 200820092010* Quantity (KBD) 829804812803 0.9-0.1 Average Price (US$/barrel) 65.4170.54101.4461.9078.8043.8-39.027.2 Value (Billion THB) 7547161,00362373840.1-37.918.5 * Preliminary Data

9 Petroleum Product Consumption Unit: KBD ** Excluding LPG used as feedstock in the petrochemical industry * Preliminary data Product 2007200820092010* Growth Rate (%) 2007200820092010* GASOLINE1261221301281.6-2.95.6-1.1  Regular 918174 863.3-8.4-0.417.0  Premium45485642-1.17.015.0-25.3 - Gasohol2642534128.162.523.8-23.1 - ULG 9519631-24.7-69.1-48.0-62.3 KEROSENE0.3 0.2-7.5-13.712.5-26.2 DIESEL3223033183191.8-5.74.60.3 JET PETROLEUM858076819.1-5.9-4.46.6 FUEL OIL73 5647 -27.8-22.1-16.9-0.2 LPG** 10011711913214.517.40.911.3 TOTAL707679690708-0.1-3.61.32.6

10 Million Litres/Day Monthly Gasoline Consumption 2006 Av. 19.8 2008 Av. 19.5 2009 Av. 20.6 2010* Av. 20.3 Impact of political unrest * Preliminary data Growth (%)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Jan- Dec Compared with corresponding period in 2009 -8.90.5-6.3-4.3-8.11.40.90.41.27.74.7-1.1* Compared with previous month -7.78.1-5.31.2-4.56.4-0.2-2.81.4-1.56.05.2 Growth Rate in 2010

11 2006 Av. 3.5 2008 Av. 9.2 2009 Av. 12.2 2010* Av. 12.0 Monthly Gasohol Consumption * Preliminary data Growth (%)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Jan- Dec Compared with corresponding period in 2009 -7.5-1.2-7.9-4.1-8.51.41.5-0.30.1-3.84.30.1 -2.4* Compared with previous month -7.94.9-5.73.4-4.56.70.4-2.40.2-3.15.24.1 Growth Rate in 2010 Million Litres/Day Demand increased due to lowered prices Government promotion of Gasohol 91 application to motorcycles Contribution rates to the Oil Fund reduced by the government towards year end

12 Million Litres/Day Monthly Gasohol 91 (E10) Consumption 2006 Av. 0.25 2008 Av. 2.52 2009 Av. 3.88 2010* Av. 4.21 * Preliminary data Growth (%)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Jan- Dec Compared with corresponding period in 2009 -1.78.24.111.45.313.012.99.410.18.515.38.89.3* Compared with previous month -7.57.4-1.95.4-4.06.40.8-1.91.0-1.34.40.7 Growth Rate in 2010

13 Gasohol 95 (E20) Gasohol 91 (E10) Gasohol 95 (E10) Gasohol Demand in 2010 Gasohol 91(E10) Gasohol 95 (E10) Gasohol 95 (E20) Average 4.16 Million Lt/d Average 0.36 Million Lt/d Average 7.35 Million Lt/d 2010 Gasohol 95 (E10) Gasohol 91 (E10) Gasohol 95 (E20)* Growth (%) -9.5*9.3*64.9* * Preliminary data

14 2006 Av. 50.2 2008 Av. 48.2 2009 Av. 50.6 2010* Av. 51.0 Monthly Diesel Consumption * Preliminary data Growth (%)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Jan- Dec Compared with corresponding period in 2009 -8.97.43.7-2.3-4.33.43.00.70.27.90.90.3* Compared with previous month -8.79.3-1.4-5.1-0.8-1.8-2.7-5.61.41.711.35.3 Growth Rate in 2010 Million Litres/Day

15 * Preliminary data Growth (%)JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Jan- Dec Compared with corresponding period in 2009 12.411.7-1.6-14.0-23.0-20.7-22.3-22.5-16.6-15.9-15.6-21.3-12.2* Compared with previous month -8.92.7-3.4-5.8-3.3-2.2-4.8-5.32.30.22.23.5 Growth Rate in 2010 Distribution Volume of Biodiesel B5 2006 Av. 0.118 2008 Av. 10.327 2009 Av. 22.345 2010* Av. 19.383 Million Litres/Day Demand dropped as price difference was only 1.20 Baht Demand increased due to high price difference: 1-3 Baht

16 Distribution Volume of HSD B3 and B5

17 LPG, Propane and Butane Demand * Preliminary data Share in 2010 26.4 30.4 40% 13% 11% 28% 8% 43% 11% 13% 25% 8% 44% 14% 16% 19% 7% 46% 15% 14% 20% 6% Demand in 2010* Household IndustryAutomobilePetro- chemical Own Use Total Demand volume (Million Lt/Day) 12.33.93.48.42.430.4 Growth Rate (%)9.132.50.528.08.315.2

18 Petroleum Consumption in the Land Transport Growth Rate (%)GasolineDieselLPGNGVTotal 2008-2.9-7.835.6230.6-2.0 20095.74.7-14.184.47.1 2010*-1.10.390.522.41.4 * Preliminary data Million Lt/Day of crude oil equivalent Gasoline Diesel LPG NGV 8% 4% 59% 29% Share

19 Natural Gas Consumption by Sector Growth Rate (%)Power Generation Gas Separation Plant IndustryNGVTOTAL* 20083.31.94.0220.85.0 20090.22.56.984.23.2 2010*11.613.033.722.614.7 * Preliminary data MMSCFD Power Gen. GSP Industry NGV 4% 17% 67% Share 12%

20 Power Demand in 2010 Overall DemandQ1Q2Q3Q4*Total* Demand Volume (GWh) 35,87838,34837,94135,557147,724 Growth Rate (%)16.212.07.23.79.6 * Preliminary data

21

22 Forecast of Primary Commercial Energy Demand 20062007200820092010p2011f Demand1,5451,6041,618 1,6631,7851,860 Oil674667634 643657671 Natural Gas579615648 682782822 Lignite/Coal248279301 303307315 Hydro/Imported Elec. 444336 353952 Growth Rate (%) Demand 1.63.80.92.8 7.24.2 Oil -2.3-5.01.4 2.2 Natural Gas 2.36.25.45.2 14.45.1 Lignite/Coal 6.912.87.70.6 2.6 Hydro/Imported Elec.35.2-2.5-17.4-1.1 14.332.7 Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data

23 Product Type20062007200820092010p2011f Growth Rate (%) 20092010p2011f Gasoline 7,215 7,3377,1217,5257,438 7,587 5.6 -1.12.0 Diesel 18,37118,71017,64318,46518,538 18,964 4.6 0.32.3 Jet Petroleum + Kerosene 4,538 4,9504,6524,4314,738 4,991 -4.3 6.65.3 Fuel Oil 5,851 4,2223,2872,7312,725 2,619 -16.9 -0.2-3.9 LPG* 5,074 5,812 6,828 6,8947,674 7,855 0.9 11.32.4 Total41,05041,030 39,531 40,06441,113 42,016 1.3 2.62.2 Forecast of Petroleum Product Demand Unit: Million Litres * Excluding LPG use as feedstock in the petrochemical industry p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data

24 Forecast of LPG Consumption, Production and Import 20062007200820092010p2011f - Consumption3,5184,1164,788 5,2086,0017,010 Household1,7211,8842,124 2,2312,4332,616 Industry511602658 586776816 Automobile459572776 666670540 Petrochemical Feedstock708807903 1,2891,6512,556 Own Use119251328 435471482 - Production4,1674,4694,8035,217 3,6015,534 - Import- - 452753 1,2921,476 Growth Rate (%) - Consumption13.517.016.3 8.815.2 16.8 Household7.39.512.7 5.09.1 7.5 Industry13.617.89.3 -11.032.5 5.2 Automobile51.624.735.6 -14.10.5 -19.4 Petrochemical feedstock-1.714.011.9 42.828.0 54.8 Own Use434.1111.331.1 32.58.3 2.3 Unit: Thousand Tons p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data

25 Forecast of Natural Gas Demand, by Sector Unit: MMSCFD Remarks: Heating Value: 1 cubic foot = 1,000 BTU Sector20062007200820092010p2011f Growth Rate (%) 20092010p2011f Power Gen. 2,2572,3462,4232,435 2,7172,8020.211.63.1 GSP527572583599 6777502.51310.9 Industry291347361387 5175806.933.712.1 NGV112477143 17520284.222.615.4 Total 3,0863,2883,4443,564 4,0864,3343.214.26.1 p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data


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