1. COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEF Q1 2013 #gmcca4b

2. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS FOR Q1 2013

3. NATIONAL OUTPUT Source: Bank of England Inflation Report/Office for National Statistics National Accounts

4. –Demand –Service sector weaker, but remains positive –Manufacturing domestic contraction, but export orders improve –Employment –Remains positive and strengthens ahead –Shift to temporary hires in services –Investment –Intentions still weak –Manufacturing up slightly –Services ease –Confidence –Services hold at post-recession high, manufacturing eases reflecting underlying weakness in construction HEADLINE RESULTS FOR Q1

5. QES v NATIONAL OUTPUT CORRELATION Source: Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics National Accounts

6. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DEMAND – SALES Source: Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey

7. NORTH WEST CONSTRUCTION ORDERS Source: Office for National Statistics Regional Construction Sector Statistics

8. QES CONSTRUCTION ORDERS v ONS DATA Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics Regional Construction Sector Statistics

9. QES EMPLOYMENT v JSA COUNT Source: North West Quarter Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics Labour Market Statistics

10. –Treat official headline numbers with caution –Policy driven increase in claimant count –Public sector losses –Some corporate failures and temporary workers released –Private sector still creating jobs and stronger intentions ahead –Manufacturing –Skilled positions the most difficult to fill –Construction sector also recruiting, reversing Q4 decline –Services –Slight shift to temporary hires –Clerical positions the hardest to fill EMPLOYMENT HIGHLIGHTS

11. EXPORTER CONFIDENCE – Q1 2013 Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey

12. EXPORTER CONFIDENCE – Q4 2012 Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey

13. NORTH WEST EXPORTS 2011 v 2012, £m Region20122011Change EU12,71950%13,65552%-6.8% Asia & Oceania4,49818%4,41917%1.8% Eastern Europe3691%3951%-6.5% Latin America & Caribbean4002%3721%7.7% Middle East and N Africa1,2535%1,1624%7.8% North America4,50518%4,93819%-8.8% Sub-Saharan Africa3431%3571%-4.0% Western Europe exc EC1,1174%1,1104%0.6% Total25,204100%26,407100%-4.6% Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics

14. NORTH WEST IMPORTS 2011 v 2012, £m Region20122011Change EU13,09450%14,75554%-11.3% Asia & Oceania6,07023%6,11822%-0.8% Eastern Europe1,1204%6873%63.0% Latin America & Caribbean5932%5572%6.5% Middle East and N Africa1,4876%1,2965%14.7% North America2,51410%2,85510%-12.0% Sub-Saharan Africa2891%2831%2.2% Western Europe exc EC8453%7933%6.5% Total26,011100%27,345100%-4.9% Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics

15. –Manufacturing –Demand eases, with it do intentions to increase prices –Raw material price pressures –Exchange rate concerns –Competition eases in manufacturing, more intense for constructors –Services –Sustained level of those operating at capacity with intentions to pass on price increases –Pressure from input prices and overheads –Though competitive pressure intensify –Interest rate concerns rise after two quarters of falls INFLATION & COST PRESSURES

16. PRODUCER INPUT PRICES Source: Office for National Statistics Producer Prices Index

17. EXCHANGE RATES Source: Royal Bank of Scotland Databank

18. BANK OF ENGLAND INFLATION – AUGUST 2012 Source: Bank of England Inflation Report August 2012

19. BANK OF ENGLAND INFLATION – FEBRUARY 2013 Source: Bank of England Inflation Report February 2013

20. –Mixed picture –Domestic v Export –Sectoral and sub-regional disparities –Retail: Shift to online / Powerful retail centres –Employment remains positive in private sector –Inflation remains a pressure for household and business –Business margins could be squeezed –Investment weak with low growth and uncertain outlook –Finance challenges –Long term options for business, but complex/tinkering by Government? CONCLUDING REMARKS

21. THANK YOU QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION #gmcca4b

22. ACTION FOR BUSINESS Budget 2013 Ongoing Action Open Forum

23. BUDGET 2013 Housing Market - centered around Help to Buy, part of a £5.4bn package designed to tackle long -term problems in the housing market starting April 2013. A further 15,000 affordable homes announced. Business Bank – accelerated deployment of £1bn capital, improve existing schemes and develop a new institution to support SMEs. Heseltine Review response – confirmation of the setting up of a single local growth fund. Employment Allowance - from April 2014 all businesses eligible for £2000 Employment Allowance – reduction off employer NICs. Business Rates – no reference to Business Rates, universally recognised by business organisations as being a major issue for business.

24. ONGOING ACTION Procurement – ongoing work through Action For Business forums and presentations, mandatory use of PAS91 Real Time Information – lack of awareness Export – major new BCC initiative in 20 target markets, local connections with overseas Chambers

25. OPEN FORUM Any other issues? Any questions? Over to you……

26. THANK YOU #gmcca4b