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M A Y 2 0 0 7 T E L E C O M S T O C K : R E C O M M E N D A T I O N Presentation to FIN 824 (SPRING QUARTER) Marc Reitter Siddhesh Sankulkar T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Agenda Page Current Holdings & Recommended Action Sector Recommendation Recap Telecom Stock Recommendation Overview: 1 2 3 America Movil Overview & Analysis 4-10 MetroPCS Overview & Analysis 11-13 Company Risks 14 Action Recommendation 15 T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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SIM overview: Maintain Overweight Position Sector weights – SIM vs. S&P 500 2 Current holdings: S&P 500 overview: SIM overweight Telecom by 3.43% T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Current Holdings Current Position – company analysis 3 Source: Yahoo Finance & Bloomberg Recommendation Sell Windstream Sell Sprint Increase position in America Movil Buy MetroPCS Communications T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Company overview – America Movil 4 America Movil through its subsidiaries, provides wireless communications services primarily in Latin America. Operations in 15 countries in the Americas More than 124 million mobile customers —Dominant position in Mexico and Central America —Third largest Wireless company in Brazil (South America’s largest economy) Coverage for a combined population of 770 million Carlos Slim – Owns 65% of the voting rights of America Movil, also is the 3 rd richest individual in the world. T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Catalysts – America Movil 5 Positioned well throughout Latin America to take advantage of Emerging Markets —America Movil's economies of scale help it squeeze operating profits out of every market in which it offers service. Low penetration rates (approximately 43%) throughout Latin America means a cornucopia of subscribers are still out there. Renewed focus on operating costs —Strict control over overhead costs Growth via Acquisition —Looking to continue adding assets in the near term as this has been the means of their growth over the years —Recently acquired Verizon’s Puerto Rico operations —Carlos Slim T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Financial Analysis – America Movil 6 T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Financial Analysis – America Movil 7 AMX Relative to S&P 500 (SP5A) T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Valuation Analysis – America Movil 8 T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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DCF Analysis – America Movil 10 T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Company overview – MetroPCS Communications 11 MetroPCS began trading on the NYSE on April 19, 2007 following the completion of the company’s IPO MetroPCS offers wireless service that is designed to extend benefits of mobility to the mass market by offering wireless service that is: Simple to understand and use Priced competitively with traditional landline service Service allows customers to make unlimited calls within a local calling area MetroPCS boasts a differentiated low-cost wireless subscriber model with approximately 3.4 million subscribers. T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N Source: Company reports
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Catalysts – MetroPCS Communications 12 Maintaining low operating expense is Key for MetroPCS success Continue with the “Market Clustering” strategy in densely populated areas with limited cell sites which minimizes network expenses —Core Markets: Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Detroit, Miami, San Francisco, Sacramento, Tampa/Sarasota/Orlando, and Los Angeles Continue to minimize marketing costs with low handset subsidies, owing to the absence of service contracts. — Consumers pay flat monthly fee for unlimited use within service area — The company sells its products and services to customers indirectly through approximately 2,000 independent retail outlets under the MetroPCS brand, as well as directly through 95 company-operated retail stores Continue with the “Market Clustering” strategy in densely populated areas with limited cell sites which minimizes network expenses T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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DCF Analysis – MetroPCS Communications 13 T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
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Company Risks 14 America Movil MetroPCS Communications T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N Primary risk continues to be execution risk and competitive response form national carriers Build-out of 40 million Points of Presence (Towers and Connection Points) in the FCC Auction 66 markets by early 2009 Increased churn due to an economic downturn The possibility of a dilutive acquisition Country Risk Primarily in Brazil and Mexico —Brazil's local monetary policy is a bit nonexistent and its tax laws are draconian. —Lack of transparency in financial reporting is concerning. Currency risk and associated inflation concerns throughout Latin America Intense competition from Rival Telefonica (Acquired 2 nd largest company in Brazil) Rising penetration rates throughout Latin America
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Action Recommendation Sell 100% Windstream & Sprint Action Scenario 1 – Use 50% proceeds to buy AMX and 50% proceeds to buy PCS Action Scenario 2 – Use 75% proceeds to buy AMX and 25% proceeds to buy PCS T E L E C O M S T O C K R E C O M M E N D A T I O N 15
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Questions? 16
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