1. Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply THIRD EDITIONECONOMICS and MACROECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS Paul Krugman | Robin Wells محمد باقر اسماعيلي مشاور استراتژي و اقتصاد بنگاه

2. Aggregate Demand تقاضاي کل منحني تقاضاي کل aggregate demand curve نشان دهنده روابط ما بين سطح قيمت کل و مقدار کل بازده تقاضا شده توسط خانوارها، کسب و کارها، دولت و مابقي دنيا مي باشد.

3. 7.9 1933 0716 Real GDP (billions of 2005 dollars) Aggregate price level (GDP deflator, 2005 = 100) Aggregate demand curve, AD A movement down the AD curve leads to a lower aggregate price level and higher aggregate output. 1000 4.2 The Aggregate Demand Curve

4. Y 1 E 1 AE Planned AE Planned 1 aggregate spending 45-degree line Real GDP Y 2 E 2 AE Planned AE Planned 2 The Aggregate Demand Curve and the Income-Expenditure Model

5. (a) Change in Income-Expenditure Equilibrium (b) Aggregate Demand Planned Aggregate Spending Aggregate Price Level 45-degree line AE Planned1 E2E2 E1E1 AE Planned2 AD P1P1 P2P2 Y1Y1 Y2Y2 Real GDP

6. Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve انتقال منحني تقاضاي کل منحني تقاضاي کل منتقل مي شود، بدليل  تغيير در انتظارات  ثروت  ذخيره سرمايه فيزيکي  سياستهاي دولت سياستهاي مالي سياست هاي پولي

7. AD 1 1 2 2 Real GDP Aggregate price level (a) Rightward Shift(b) Leftward Shift Aggregate price level Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve Increase in aggregate demand Decrease in aggregate demand

8. منحني عرضه کل aggregate supply curve نشان دهنده رابطه ميان سطح قيمت کل و مقدار بازده کل در اقتصاد مي باشد. Aggregate Supply

9. 0976 Real GDP (billions of 2005 dollars) Aggregate price level (GDP deflator, 2005 = 100) Short-run aggregate supply curve, SRAS 10.6 1929 7.9 1933 716 A movement down the SRAS curve leads to deflation and lower aggregate output. The Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

10. Real GDP Aggregate price level Real GDP SRAS 2 Decrease in short-run aggregate supply Increase in short-run aggregate supply (a) Leftward Shift (b) Rightward Shift SRAS 1 1 2 Shifts of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

11. تغيير در  قيمت اجناس  دستمزدهاي اسمي  بهره وري منجر به تغييرات در سود توليد کنندگان و انتقال منحني عرضه کل کوتاه مدت مي شود.

12. منحني عرضه کل بلند مدت long-run aggregate supply curve نشان دهنده رابطه مابين سطح قيمت کل و مقدار بازده عرضه شده مي باشد، اگر همه قيمتها از جمله دستمزد اسمي بطور کامل انعطاف پذير بودند. Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

13. 15.0 0$800 Real GDP (billions of 2005 dollars) Aggregate price level (GDP deflator, 2005 = 100) Potential output, Y P Long-run aggregate supply curve, LRAS 7.5 A fall in the aggregate price level… …leaves the quantity of aggregate output supplied unchanged in the long run. Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

14. Actual and Potential Output

15. Y 1 Y P P 1 LRAS SR 1 Y 1 Y P P 1 SR 1 LR A1A1 Real GDP Aggregate price level Real GDP Aggregate price level SRAS 2 A rise in nominal wages shifts SRAS leftward. SRAS 2 A fall in nominal wages shifts SRAS rightward. (a) Leftward Shift of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve (b) Rightward Shift of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve A1A1 From the Short Run to the Long Run

16. The AS–AD Model منحني عرضه و تقاضاي کل AS-AD model با يکديگر براي تجزيه و تحليل نوسانات اقتصادي بکار برده مي شود. زماني که مقدار بازده کل عرضه شده برابر با مقدار تقاضا شده باشد اقتصاد در تعادل کوتاه مدت short-run macroeconomic equilibrium مي باشد. سطح قيمت تعادلي کوتاه مدت کل short-run equilibrium aggregate price level عبارتست از سطح قيمت کل در تعادل کوتاه مدت اقتصاد کلان بازده تعادلي کوتاه مدت کل Short-run equilibrium aggregate output عبارتست از مقدار بازده کل توليد شده در تعادل کوتاه مدت اقتصاد کلان

17. Y E P E E SR SRAS AD Real GDP Aggregate price level Short-run macroeconomic equilibrium The AS–AD Model

18. Y 2 2 P 2 AD 2 A negative demand shock... Y 1 E 1 E AD 1 Y 1 2 E 1 1 P 1 P 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level Real GDP Aggregate price level...leads to a lower aggregate price level and lower aggregate output....leads to a higher aggregate price level and higher aggregate output. (a) A Negative Demand Shock (b) A Positive Demand Shock E P 2 Y 2 AD 2 A positive demand shock... Shifts of Aggregate Demand: Short-Run Effects SRAS

19. P 1 AD Y 1 E 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level (a) A Negative Supply Shock Shifts of the SRAS Curve SRAS 1 Y 2 2 E P 2 2 Y 1 1 AD E 2 E SRAS P 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level (b) A Positive Supply Shock P 2 Y 2 SRAS 2 1 A negative supply shock......leads to a lower aggregate output and a higher aggregate price level....leads to a higher aggregate output and lower aggregate price level. A positive supply shock...

20. Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium زماني که نقطه تعادل کوتاه مدت long-run macroeconomic equilibrium اقتصاد کلان بر روي منحني بلند مدت عرضه کل باشد، اقتصاد در تعادل بلندمدت مي باشد.

21. Y P P E SRAS LR AD E LR Real GDP Aggregate price level Long-run macroeconomic equilibrium Potential output Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium

22. Y 1 P E 1 2 SRAS 1 LR AD 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level Potential output E 3 P 3 SRAS 2 3. …until an eventual fall in nominal wages in the long run increases short-run aggregate supply and moves the economy back to potential output. 2 2. …reduces the aggregate price level and aggregate output and leads to higher unemployment in the short run… AD 2 Recessionary gap Y 2 E 1. An initial negative demand shock… 1 P Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of a Negative Demand Shock

23. Real GDP Aggregate price level LRAS Y1Y1 Potential output AD 1 SRAS 1 E1E1 P1P1 AD 2 E2E2 E3E3 P2P2 P3P3 Y2Y2 SRAS 2 1. Originally the economy is at E 1. 2. A negative demand shock shifts the AD curve to the left, … 3. … reducing both the aggregate price level and aggregate output and leading to higher unemployment in the short run. Recessionary gap 4. Eventually in the long run, the fall in nominal wages increases the SRAS curve and moves the economy back to potential output.

24. Y 1 P 3 E 3 E1E1 P 1 P SRAS 1 LR AD Real GDP Aggregate price level Potential output SRAS 2 3. …until an eventual rise in nominal wages in the long run reduces short- run aggregate supply and moves the economy back to potential output. AD 2 1. An initial positive demand shock… Inflationary gap Y 2 2 E 2 2. …increases the aggregate price level and aggregate output and reduces unemployment in the short run… 1 Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of a Positive Demand Shock

25. Real GDP Aggregate price level LRAS Y1Y1 Potential output AD 2 SRAS 2 E3E3 P3P3 AD 1 E2E2 E1E1 P2P2 P1P1 Y2Y2 SRAS 1 1. Originally the economy is at E 1. 2. A positive demand shock shifts the AD curve to the right, … 3. … raising both the aggregate price level and aggregate output and leading to lower unemployment in the short run. Inflationary gap 4. Eventually in the long run, the rise in nominal wages decreases the SRAS curve and moves the economy back to potential output.

26. Gap Recap زماني که بازده کل زير بازده بالقوه باشد، شكاف رکودي recessionary gap وجود دارد. زماني که بازده کل بالاي بازده بالقوه باشد شكاف تورمي inflationary gap وجود دارد. درصد تفاوت مابين بازده کل واقعي و بازده بالقوه را شكاف بازده output gap گويند.

27. Gap Recap زماني که شوک هاي تقاضاي کل بر روي بازده در کوتاه مدت اثر مي گذارند - و نه در بلند مدت - اقتصاد خود اصلاح self-correcting مي باشد.

28. Negative Supply Shocks شوک هاي منفي عرضه Negative supply shocks معرفي کننده يک سياست معما گونه است که : سياستي که مدعي است ، تثبيت بازده کل از طريق افزايش تقاضاي کل منجر به تورم خواهد شد، و سياست تثبيت قيمت از طريق کاهش تقاضاي کل منجر به کاهش عميقتر بازده output slump خواهد شد.

29. Fiscal Policy THIRD EDITIONECONOMICS and MACROECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS Paul Krugman | Robin Wells

30. Government Spending and Tax Revenue Government Spending and Tax Revenue for Some High-Income Countries in 2007

31. Sources of Tax Revenue in the United States, 2007

32. Government Spending in the United States, 2007 Social insurance programs are government programs intended to protect families against economic hardship.

33. The Government Budget and Total Spending سياست مالي Fiscal policy شامل كاربرد ماليات، هزينه هاي انتقالي دولت يا خريد كالاها و خدمات توسط دولت مي باشد كه باعث انتقال منحني تقاضاي كل مي شود.

34. Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy سياست مالي انبساطي مي تواند شكاف ركودي را از بين ببرد. Expansionary fiscal policy increases aggregate demand. Recessionary gap Potential output

35. Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy سياست مالي انقباضي مي تواند شكاف تورمي را از بين ببرد. Contractionary fiscal policy reduces aggregate demand. Inflationary gap Potential output

36. Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier اندازه انتقال منحني تقاضا به نوع سياست مالي بستگي دارد. تغيير در خريد هاي دولت اثر قدرتمندتري بر روي تغييرات هم اندازه در ماليات و هزينه ها ي انتقالي دارد. The multiplier on changes in government purchases, 1/(1 − MPC), is larger than the multiplier on changes in taxes or transfers, MPC/(1 − MPC), because part of any change in taxes or transfers is absorbed by savings.

37. Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier

38. Multiplier Effects of Changes in Taxes and Government Transfers Hypothetical Effects of a Fiscal Policy with Multiplier of 2

39. Multiplier Effects of Changes in Taxes and Government Transfers Lump-sum taxes are taxes that don’t depend on the taxpayer’s income.

40. The Budget Balance كسري بودجه بعنوان درصدي از توليد ناخالص داخلي در طي دوره ركود تمايل به افزايش داشته و در طي دوره رونق تمايل به كاهش دارد.

41. The Budget Balance The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP moves closely in tandem with the unemployment rate.

42. Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve System THIRD EDITIONECONOMICS and MACROECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS Paul Krugman | Robin Wells

43. The U.S. Money Supplies The Money Pyramid

44. The Money Multiplier in Reality پايه پولي monetary base مجموع پول در گردش و ذخيره قانوني مي باشد. ضريب پولي money multiplier نسبت عرضه پول به پايه پول مي باشد. 44 of 18

45. How the Fed Controls the Money Supply سه ابزاري كه بانك مركزي براي كنترل عرضه پول استفاده مي نمايد : 1. عمليات بازار آزاد 2. ذخيره قانوني 3. نرخ تنزيل

46. Monetary Policy THIRD EDITIONECONOMICS and MACROECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS Paul Krugman | Robin Wells

47. The Money Demand Curve Interest rate, r Quantity of money Money demand curve, MD منحني تقاضاي پول روابط بين مقدار پول تقاضا شده و نرخ بهره را نشان مي دهد.

48. Increases and Decreases in the Demand for Money A fall in money demand shifts the money demand curve to the left.. A rise in money demand shifts the money demand curve to the right.

49. Money and Interest Rates بر طبق مدل رجحان نقدينگي liquidity preference model نرخ بهره، نرخ بهره از طريق عرضه و تقاضاي پول تعيين مي شود. منحني عرضه پول money supply curve نشان مي دهد كه چگونه مقدار پول عرضه شده در نرخ هاي بهره مختلف متفاوت مي باشد.

50. M r H r E r L L E MD M H M L H Quantity of money Interest rate, r Equilibrium interest rate Money supply curve, MS Equilibrium Money supply chosen by the Fed Equilibrium in the Money Market

51. 1 M 2 E 2 MS 2 An increase in the money supply... r 1 E MS 1 MD M 1 Quantity of money Interest rate, r r 2... leads to a fall in the interest rate. The Effect of an Increase in the Money Supply on the Interest Rate

52. Setting the Federal Funds Rate Pushing the Interest Rate Down to the Target Rate The target federal funds rate is the Federal Reserve’s desired federal funds rate. M r 1 r E 1 MS 1 MD M 1 Quantity of money Interest rate, r E 2 2 MS 2 An open- market purchase... T... drives the interest rate down.

53. Setting the Federal Funds Rate Pushing the Interest Rate Up to the Target Rate M 1 r 1 E 1 E MD MS 1 Quantity of money Interest rate, r 2 MS 2 M 2 An open- market sale... r T... drives the interest rate up.

54. Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand  سياست پولي انبساطي Expansionary monetary policy يك نوع سياست پولي مي باشد كه باعث افزايش تقاضاي كل مي شود.  سياست پولي انقباضي Contractionary monetary policy يك نوع سياست پولي مي باشد كه باعث كاهش تقاضاي كل مي شود.

55. Expansionary and Contractionary Monetary Policy

56. Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand AD 1 1 2 3 Real GDP Aggregate price level (a) Expansionary Monetary Policy(b) Contractionary Monetary Policy Aggregate price level

57. Tracking Monetary Policy

58. Money, Output, and Prices in the Long Run SR SRAS 1 LR Y 1 E 3 E 1 P 1 Aggregate price level Real GDP Potential output AS 2 P 3... but the eventual rise in nominal wages leads to a fall in short-run aggregate supply and aggregate output falls back to potential output. Y 2 E 2 P 2 AD 2 An increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate and increases aggregate demand... AD 1

59. The Long-Run Determination of the Interest Rate Quantity of money r 1 MD 1 MS 1 M 1 E 3 E 1 Interest rate, r r 2 E 2 MS 2 M 2 An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate in the short run… MD 2 …but in the long run higher prices lead to greater money demand, raising the interest rate to its original level.

60. Inflation THIRD EDITIONECONOMICS and MACROECONOMICS MACROECONOMICS Paul Krugman | Robin Wells

61. Money and Prices Y P P 3 P 1 E 1 AD 1 SR SRAS 1 LR Aggregate price level Real GDP Potential output Y 1 P 2 E 2 AD 2 E 3 AS 2 بر اساس مدل كلاسيك سطح قيمت classical model of the price level ، مقدار واقعي پول هميشه در سطح تعادل بلند مدتش قرار مي گيرد.

62. Money Supply Growth and Inflation in Zimbabwe

63. Inflation and Wages in Europe and the United States

64. Stuckflation

65. The Logic of Hyperinflation  In 1923, Germany’s money was worth so little that children used stacks of banknotes as building blocks or built kites with them.

66. The Short-Run Phillips Curve منحني كوتاه مدت فيليپس short-run Phillips curve رابطه منفي بين نرخ بيكاري و نرخ تورم را نشان مي دهد.

67. The Short-Run Phillips Curve When the unemployment rate is low, inflation is high. Inflation rate 0 When the unemployment rate is high, inflation is low. Unemployment rate

68. The Short-Run Phillips Curve and Supply Shocks 0 SRPC 0 Inflation rate Unemployment rate SRPC 1 A negative supply shock shifts SRPC up. SRPC 2 A positive supply shock shifts SRPC down.

69. Inflation Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve 6% 5 4 3 2 1 0 –1 –2 –3 8%76543 SRPC 0 Inflation rate Unemployment rate SRPC 2 SRPC shifts up by the amount of the increase in expected inflation.

70. Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run The nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU, is the unemployment rate at which inflation does not change over time. The long-run Phillips curve shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation after expectations of inflation have had time to adjust to experience. Disinflation is the process of bringing down inflation that is embedded in expectations.

71. The NAIRU and the Long-Run Phillips Curve 8% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 –1 –2 –3 8%76543 SRPC 0 E 0 Inflation rate Unemployment rate Nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU SRPC 2 4 E 2 E 4 C B A

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