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Published byGabriella Heath Modified over 9 years ago
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LECTURE, PART II Economy and Politics
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How well are the SEA economies doing? Look only at a few statistics, for HDI in 2010: #1 Norway,.938; #4 US,.902 #27 Singapore,.846; #59 Malaysia,.744; #94 Thailand,.654; #100 Philippines,.638; #111 Indonesia,.6; #116 Vietnam,.572; then Lao, Cambodia, Myanmar
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And a few more… HDI scores19702010Gains % (rank) Gains value Cambodia.303.544 China.349.71832 Indonesia.369.6863 Lao.292.57455 Philippines.548.681 Vietnam.385.656
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Why we should be surprised Conditions at independence Subsequent political conflicts
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Stateness Predicting life opportunities Historical legacies mandala galactic polity theater state Performance on ROL, education And yet…
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Political economy snapshots Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam The Philippines Malaysia Myanmar
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Cambodia Hun Sen PM since 1984 Garment industry employed 300,000 57% in poverty Lowest HDI other than Myanmar Foreign aid 2011 $1 billion
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Indonesia SBY re-elected 2009 SEA’s most successful democracy? Corruption, poor bureaucracy, bottlenecks Re-think on decentralization? Poverty rate down to 14%
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Vietnam 11 th Party Congress, early this year PM Nguyen Tan Dung remains VCP Sec-Gen Nguyen Phu Trong Inflation, deficits; Vinashin collapse Manufacturing employment
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The Philippines Gloria Arroyo gone; another Aquino 2009 elections Overseas remittances Family planning
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Malaysia Barisan Nasional lost two-thirds majority 2008 PM Najib Tun Razak April 2009 Patronage model outmoded? Reforms in NEP? Vision 2020 Emigration concerns
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Myanmar Than Shwe stepped down Late 2010 elections New constitution Grounds for hopes?
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Readings Asian Survey, Vol.51, No.1 www.atimes.com (Asia Times Online) www.atimes.com www.asiasentinel.com Asia Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, 2011
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