1. LECTURE, PART II Economy and Politics

2. How well are the SEA economies doing? Look only at a few statistics, for HDI in 2010: #1 Norway,.938; #4 US,.902 #27 Singapore,.846; #59 Malaysia,.744; #94 Thailand,.654; #100 Philippines,.638; #111 Indonesia,.6; #116 Vietnam,.572; then Lao, Cambodia, Myanmar

3. And a few more… HDI scores19702010Gains % (rank) Gains value Cambodia.303.544 China.349.71832 Indonesia.369.6863 Lao.292.57455 Philippines.548.681 Vietnam.385.656

4. Why we should be surprised Conditions at independence Subsequent political conflicts

5. Stateness Predicting life opportunities Historical legacies mandala galactic polity theater state Performance on ROL, education And yet…

6. Political economy snapshots Cambodia Indonesia Vietnam The Philippines Malaysia Myanmar

7. Cambodia Hun Sen PM since 1984 Garment industry employed 300,000 57% in poverty Lowest HDI other than Myanmar Foreign aid 2011 $1 billion

8. Indonesia SBY re-elected 2009 SEA’s most successful democracy? Corruption, poor bureaucracy, bottlenecks Re-think on decentralization? Poverty rate down to 14%

9. Vietnam 11 th Party Congress, early this year PM Nguyen Tan Dung remains VCP Sec-Gen Nguyen Phu Trong Inflation, deficits; Vinashin collapse Manufacturing employment

10. The Philippines Gloria Arroyo gone; another Aquino 2009 elections Overseas remittances Family planning

11. Malaysia Barisan Nasional lost two-thirds majority 2008 PM Najib Tun Razak April 2009 Patronage model outmoded? Reforms in NEP? Vision 2020 Emigration concerns

12. Myanmar Than Shwe stepped down Late 2010 elections New constitution Grounds for hopes?

13. Readings Asian Survey, Vol.51, No.1 www.atimes.com (Asia Times Online) www.atimes.com www.asiasentinel.com Asia Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, 2011