1. partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability: Concepts and applications to coral reef-dependent regions (Work in progress) Allison Perry

2. partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability: susceptibility to harm a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, or environmental factors, which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard (UNDP 2004)

3. partnership  excellence  growth Approaches to vulnerability Risk and hazards Coastal populations and flooding Human ecology Hunger, famines Sustainability Land use practices Climate change Impacts on natural resource sectors

4. partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability assessment framework EXPOSURE Disturbance or stress to system SENSITIVITY Degree of response of system to disturbance or stress POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account VULNERABILITY ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Ability of system to evolve or change to accommodate disturbance or stress

5. partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability assessment framework EXPOSURE Disturbance or stress to system VULNERABILITY SENSITIVITY Degree of response of system to disturbance or stress ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Ability of system to evolve or change to accommodate disturbance or stress RESILIENCE

6. partnership  excellence  growth Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

7. partnership  excellence  growth POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account VULNERABILITY ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and abilities to cope with climate-related changes EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which countries are exposed to predicted climate change SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by fishery- related changes Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

8. partnership  excellence  growth Moderate High No data Low Very low Allison et al. (2009) Vulnerability Economic vulnerability: climate change and fisheries

9. partnership  excellence  growth Taking vulnerability assessment forward Fisheries and climate change: Refinements as input data quality improves Multiple drivers of change Finer-scale assessments – for policy National Sub-national Vulnerability of specific fishery-dependent systems

10. partnership  excellence  growth Threatened coral reefs

11. partnership  excellence  growth Reef loss: threats to people Reef ecosystem goods and services Food, income, employment, coastal protection, tourism, exports Poverty and reef-dependent regions 2/3 of coral reef nations are developing countries 1/4 of these are Least Developed Countries Small island states High population densities, limited freshwater supplies, sensitive economies

12. partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle >120 million people dependent on marine resources for food, livelihoods Reefs valued at US$ 2.3 billion Many reefs degraded and under continuing threat Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI): conservation, sustainable development, poverty reduction

13. partnership  excellence  growth Vulnerability and reef-dependence: Coral Triangle Vulnerability to reef loss (climate change) National-scale assessments (Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste) Finer-scale assessments (Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands) Indonesia Philippines Solomon Islands

14. Assessing vulnerability to reef loss EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which coral reefs are exposed to stress SENSITIVITY Degree to which people & economies are likely to be affected by changes on reefs POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Potential for reef-dependent communities & nations to cope with changes on reefs VULNERABILITY

15. Assessing vulnerability to reef loss EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which coral reefs are exposed to stress SENSITIVITY Reef dependence POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking adaptation into account ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and abilities to cope with reef loss VULNERABILITY

16. Assessing social vulnerability to reef loss EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which coral reefs are exposed to stress SENSITIVITY Reef dependence ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Resources and abilities to cope with reef loss SOCIAL VULNERABILITY

17. partnership  excellence  growth Reef dependence People more reef-dependent where reefs represent greater: 1.Share of economic activity Contribution to individual/household income Contribution to community/regional/national economy 2.Source of employment Number/proportion of people with reef-dependent livelihoods Ranking of reef-related livelihood activities 3.Source of nutrients Proportion of dietary protein from reef-associated sources Quantity of reef-associated food consumed

18. partnership  excellence  growth Complexities of reef dependence Variation in types of reef reliance Continuous vs. seasonal Safety net during times of hardship Critical to survival vs. non-essential Other reef services Coastal protection Cultural value

19. partnership  excellence  growth Adaptive capacity Generic (Human development) indicators Economy (poverty, inequality, debts) Health (life expectancy, child mortality) Education (literacy, school enrolment) Governance (e.g. stability, effectiveness, corruption) Context-specific indicators Governance (MPAs, LMMAs) Alternative natural resources (other fisheries, agriculture, freshwater availability) Remittances Infrastructure (e.g. roads) Isolation (e.g. proximity to urban centres, markets)

20. partnership  excellence  growth Project status Data hunting and compilation National-scale Reef-associated coastal populations, fisheries, dietary consumption HDIs, MPAs, roads, agricultural land availability, water resources, remittances Finer-scale Reef dependence: –Indonesia (~ 25 sites) –Philippines (~ 30 sites) –Solomon Islands (~ 5 sites)

21. partnership  excellence  growth Methodological challenges: Data limitations Varying measures of reef-dependence Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings Production: catch, revenues Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries) Spatial scale: LocalNational Reef-associated income Reef-associated employment Reef-associated livelihoods Reef-derived catch Dietary dependence Health Education Governance Remittances

22. partnership  excellence  growth Methodological challenges: Data limitations Varying measures of reef-dependence Fishers: fishing households, boats, gear Livelihoods: # households, total activities, activity rankings Production: catch, revenues Trade-offs between spatial coverage and comparability (across sites, across countries) Spatial scale Data availability at specific scales Linking national and finer-scale assessments Reef-relevance Balancing generic and context-specific indicators »e.g. Philippines fish consumption data

23. partnership  excellence  growth Beyond the Coral Triangle… Reefs at Risk Revisited – Global assessment of vulnerability to reef degradation and loss Begins June 2009

24. partnership  excellence  growth

25. Social vulnerability assessment Goals: 1.Awareness raising: reef dependence and associated vulnerability 2.Help to reduce vulnerability by: Identifying the specific drivers of vulnerability in reef-dependent regions Highlighting where particular policy, development, and management measures may be most appropriate 3.Establish baseline measures of vulnerability against which to monitor future changes