1. Modeling the impact of climate change on Indian forest ecosystem with LPJ model Dr. Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi National Environmental Sciences Fellow Indian Institute of Science Bangalore 2 nd WCRP CORDEX South Asia Workshop, 27-30 August, 2013, Kathmandu

2. STATE OF INDIAN FORESTS Source: FSI Source: Champion & Seth, 1968

3. Why do we need to study forests? o Stock and sink of carbon o Ecosystem services (e.g. water resources) o Biodiversity o Timber o NTFP production o Livelihoods of forest dependent communities

4. Key components of Climate Change Impact assessment in the LULUCF sector 1.Climate models 2.Climate change scenarios 3.Vegetation models 4.Time-steps 5.Spatial scale 6.Vulnerability index

5. Key improvements in climate change impact assessment in the forest sector ComponentsWhat is done so farWhat will be new & an improvement 1. Climate modelsCMIP3, single modelCMIP5, multi-model 2. Climate Change scenarios A2, B2, and A1BRCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 3. Vegetation modelsBIOME 4, and IBIS, Single DGVM simulation BIOME4, IBIS, LPJ, Multi- DGVM comparison 4. Time-step2030s, and 2080sContinuous projection from 2005 to 2100 (LPJ); 2030s, 2080s 5. Spatial scale0.5°×0.5°≥1°×1° 6. Vulnerability IndexChaturvedi et al 2011, Ravindranath et al 2011 Improved conceptual framework, and observed data, esp focusing on inherent vuln (Sharma et al 2013)

6. Tools/Model available for projecting the impacts of climate change on forests Statistical Models Dynamic Model Deterministic Models Bio-geography Model Biogeochemistry Models Equilibrium/ Static Models Most Advanced tool for impact assessment (Fishling et al., 2007)

7. A TYPICAL DGVM ARCHITECTURE

8. S. N.ModelModelingCenter (or Group)lat – deglon – deg 1BCC-CSM1-1-M Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration1.125 2CCSM4National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA0.9421.25 3CESM1(CAM5)Community Earth System Model Contributors0.9371.25 4GISS-E2-HNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA1.12 5IPSL-CM5A-MRInstitut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France1.121.125 6MRI-CGCM3Meteorological Research Institute, Japan1.1321.125 1BCC-CSM1.1 Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration2.812 2CSIRO-Mk3.6 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collaboration with Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Australia1.8951.875 3FIO-ESMThe First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China2.812 4GFDL-CM3NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory22.5 5GFDL-ESM2GNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory22.5 6GFDL-ESM2MNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory22.5 7GISS-E2-RNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA2.0222.517 8HadGEM2-AOMet Office Hadley Centre, UK1.2411.875 9HadGEM2-ESMet Office Hadley Centre, UK1.251.875 10IPSL-CM5A-LRInstitut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France1.8953.75 11MIROC5The University of Tokyo1.4171.406 12MIROC-ESMThe University of Tokyo2.8572.813 13MIROC-ESM-CHEMThe University of Tokyo2.8572.813 14NorESM1-MNorwegian Climate Centre1.8952.5 15NorESM1-MENorwegian Climate Centre1.8752.5

9. LPJ results from an ensemble of 14 Climate models

10. Modeling demonstration for hands-on training 1BCC-CSM1.1 Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration2.812 Input data: Mean monthly temperature; Mean monthly precipitation and Cloudiness Outputs: Dominant vegetation; NPP; Soil carbon; Vegetation carbon etc

11. Thanks