1. Water Productivity and Upgrading Rainfed Results from the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Co-Sponsors:

2. Setting the Scene

3. Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining

4. Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI The 840 million undernourished. Dependent on Water for Agriculture? Nutrition, food security, income Lower Food Prices Employment Vulnerable to loss of water

5. Investing in Irrigation

6. Water Scarcity 2000 Little or no water scarcity Physical water scarcity Approaching physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Not estimated

7. Reasons for poverty, hunger, water scarcity, and gender inequity are political and institutional, not technical Support institutions need to be able to better support women to reach MDGs Need more informed negotiations to make difficult choices More effort is required to clarify rights to land and water to promote investments. No blue print approach

8. The Dilemma: Major investments in water have helped economic growth, prevented famine and achieved record low food prices But agriculture drives water scarcity and environmental degradation. But poor people need more water for food and livelihoods Where will it come from? Who gets it? The Water-Food-Environment Dilemma

9. Debates on the way forward Relative investments in small and large, rainfed and irrigated Role of trade The prioritization of ecosystem water needs The role of agriculture itself in poverty alleviation The CA combined a diverse group to engage in these debates

10. The CA and the Millennium Development Goals How can water for food be developed and managed to… Help end poverty and hunger? Ensure environmentally sustainable water-agriculture practices? Find the balance between food and environmental security?

11. How much more food – future meat demands World Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia OECD Meat demand in kg/cap/yr

12. How much more cereals? Kg/cap/yr World Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia OECD

13. Total food demand nearly doubles by 2050 Water (ET) demand doubles if no increases in water productivity GrainSugarcaneVegetables

14. How can we produce enough food for 2 to 3 billion more people, and meet the MDGs on poverty, hunger and environment? Vital Questions: How much more water will we need? Where will it come from? What type of water management?

15. Where to find the water? Options: 1.Expand irrigated areas – divert more “blue water” from rivers and aquifers 2.Expand rainfed areas – turn more natural area in to arable land – use more “green water” 3.Increase water productivity: produce more with less water, i.e. more crop per drop, but also more animal products with less water 4.Manage demand – diets, reducing post- harvest losses from farm to fork 5.Trade in virtual water

16. Dependence on green and blue water 2000 August 2006 Areas in green: agriculture mainly under rainfed Areas in blue: agriculture mainly under irrigation Circles depict total crop depletion

17. Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production

18. Water Productivity Physical Water Productivity –Kilograms produce per unit of water (ET or diverted) Economic Water productivity –Value per unit of water (ET or diverted)

19. Potential for water productivity gains small – already met. Highest potential for WP gains, usually in rainfed areas Where can gains in physical water productivity be made? 2468 Water Productivity (m 3 /ET) per kg) Yield (kg/ha) 246 1 2 3 8

20. Growth in yields

21. A Range of Ag Water Management Options

22. Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture Water management in rainfed areas deserves more attention Enhance Water Productivity Soil-water management Supplementing rainfall with a little blue water at the right time Water harvesting, groundwater for source Soil fertility plus water – synergistic effect Investments in small scale water managements show quick returns, do not necessarily require large public funding Can benefit a lot of people

23. Making it happen Managing risk is a key – create a good environment to invest in agricultural inputs Water at the right time is part of the risk management strategy (storage) Extension – more on how to manage water (why doesn’t Ministry of Water Resources look after upgrading RF systems?) Step up the scale of research and attention to the topic

24. What about irrigation?

25. What about large scale irrigation? The era of rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture is over – but need to improve existing systems Irrigation development - viable option for poor countries where agriculture is the major component of GNP Even if area of large scale irrigation doubles, impact on food is small – only 8% will come from large scale irrigation Are conditions right – human capacity, institutions, markets?

26. Kumasi

27. Timbuktu

29. Area developed (22 schemes): 8,750 ha Actually irrigated area: 5,200 ha Formal irrigation sector Informal irrigation sector Irrigated area around cities in central Ghana: 45,000 ha Informal, small-scale irrigation is big in Africa Ghana Source: IWMI

30. Significance for livelihood support Source: IWMI

31. Economic Productivity – more value per drop Increasing yield per unit of blue or green water Changing from low to high value crops (ie wheat to flowers) Reallocating water from low to higher valued uses (ie from agriculture to cities) Increase benefits: health and value of ecological services Decrease costs: inputs, social, health and environmental costs Obtain multiple benefits per unit of water (ie use water for drinking and agriculture)

32. Multiple Use Systems More Value Per Drop Multiple-use systems – integrating domestic water, irrigation, fisheries, livestock – provide income, nutrition and health benefits, and improve water productivity. Provide women with opportunities But irrigation needs to adjust to manage for multiple uses

33. In Conclusions Investments in water and agriculture essential to meet MDGs on poverty and hunger Upgrading rainfed and small scale water management are keys Investments needed in human capacity –Education – integrated approaches to water management –Research to adapt to local conditions –Institutional reform to support sustainable agricultural water management

34. Thank you

35. Developed Sub-Saharan Africa World South Asia Asia Acceptable Level It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average

36. Exploitable yield gap FAO data high medium low Tons per hectare Maize AT 2030 Exploitable yield gap in SSA rain fed areas more than 4 tons/ha Yield growth projections: low = 20% of yield gap bridged; med = 40% of yield gap bridged high = 80% of yield gap bridged Maximum attainable yield 6 ton/ha Actual yield 1.4 ton/ha * Based on GAEZ attainable yields

37. FAO data Exploitable yield gap Tons per hectare AT 2030 Exploitable yield gap in OECD rain fed areas less than 0.5 tons/ha * Based on GAEZ attainable yields Maximum attainable yield 9.1 ton/ha Actual yield 8.6 ton/ha Maize