1. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org MODELKEY and the Waterframework Directive Models for Assessing and Forecasting the Impact of Environmental Key Pollutants on Freshwater and Marine Ecosystems and Biodiversity Werner Brack, Joop Bakker, Mahmoud Bataineh, Eric de Deckere, Jos van Gils, Michaela Hein, Bob Kooi, Sovan Lek, Urte Lübke-von Varel, Mirek Machala, Isabel Munoz, Peter von der Ohe, Antonio Marcomini, Claudia Schmitt, Mechthild Schmitt-Jansen, Helmut Segner, Georg Streck, Dick de Zwart and 26 partners from 14 countries

2. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org WFD Article 5 Reports COM(2007) Majority of water bodies at risk not to achieve the goals of WFD or no data

3. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org WFD Article 5 Reports at risk not at risk insufficient data

4. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org WFD Article 5 Reports Preliminary conclusions: Three Gorge Dam (China) Major driving forces for insufficient ecological status: Agriculture (particularly nitrate) Hydromorphological alterations (channelisation, damming, regulation of water flow...) What about toxicants?

5. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Elbe Schelde Llobregat  MODELKEY partners MODELKEY Case studies MODELKEY aims to establish links between the ecological status and toxic contamination

6. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Outline Do we have evidence on toxic impacts? What is the contribution of priority pollutants to risk on BQEs? What non-priority pollutants may be important? site scalebasin scale Conclusions and recommendations

7. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Effect modelling based on msPAF predicts hazards for more than 5% of species at about 30% of sites in the Scheldt including many sites that comply with EQS for priority pollutants Do we have evidence on toxic impacts? basin scale

8. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Do we have evidence on toxic impacts? Disappearance of sensitive macro-inverte- brates (SPEAR-index) vs increasing contamination reflected by (Log TU sum ). Example: Llobregat, Spain basin scale

9. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants basin scale Evaluation of four river basins based on TU: Elbe, Danube, Scheldt, Llobregat Evaluation of three BQEs using representative organisms: micro-algae (Selenastrum capricornutum) invertebrates (Daphnia magna) fish (Pimephales promelas)

10. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants basin scale algae hexazinone terbutylazinedinonylphthalate diuron alachlor metolachlor terbutryne propazine priority pollutants missing on the PP list

11. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants basin scale inverte -brates ethion dichlorvos diazinon chlorfenvinfos heptenophos 2,5-dichlorophenolphenol chlorpyrifos priority pollutants missing on the PP list

12. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants basin scale fish dinonylphthalate fluoranthene PCBs ( ) n nonylphenol- ethoxylates tributyltin phenol priority pollutants missing on the PP list

13. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Do we have evidence on toxic impacts? Scheldt Elbe Llobregat Frequent (and discriminative) detection of in vitro and in vivo effects Examples: Mutagenicity, endocrine disruptive and antibiotic activity in sediment extracts site scale

14. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Translation to in vivo effects (realistic exposure conditions): Sediment contact test with snails indicates estrogenic effects at polluted sites Do we have evidence on toxic impacts? In vitro tests of extracts as early warning! However: not all in vitro effects detectable in vivo  Bioavailability? site scale

15. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Increase in EC 50 Community effects: Pollution induced community tolerance (PICT) towards site specific toxicants Example: Effects of prometryn on biofilms from contaminated sites vs reference Do we have evidence on toxic impacts? site scale Disappearance of sensitive species at affected sites

16. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org site scale Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants Effect-directed analysis as a tool to identify site-specific key toxicants

17. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org site scale Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants Example: Effect-directed analysis of key toxicants downstream of Bitterfeld PCDF naphthalenyl benzothiophene dinaphthofurans N-phenyl-2- naphthylamine prometryn methyl parathion missing on the PP list

18. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants Inhibition of cell multiplication Example: EDA of algal toxicants in sediments from the river Bilina (Czech Republic) triclosan missing on the PP list site scale

19. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Effect-directed analysis identifies high potencies in polar fractions that do not contain any priority pollutants. Examples: Mutagens in sediments from Elbe basin Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants work in progress for many different endpoints site scale

20. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org quinoline, isoquinoline 4-phenylpyridine 5H-indeno[1,2-b]pyridine) benz(cd)indol-2(1H)-one, diphenylamine phenazine, phenanthridine, acridine, benzo(g)quinoline 2,3,6,7-tetramethylquinoxaline methylphenanthridine, methyl-acridine, phenylindolizine dibenz[a,c]acridine, dibenz[a,j]acridine, dibenz[a,h]acridine, dibenz[c,h]acridine indeno(1,2.3-ij)isoquinoline, acenaphtho(1,2-B)pyridine, 4-azapyrene phenylquinoline, phenylisoquinoline benzo(h)quinoline, 2,4-dimethyl, 5-methyl-2-phenylindolizine benzo(c)carbazole, 11H-indeno(1,2-b)quinoline N-phenyl-2-naphthaleneamine, 5(4H)-thebenidinone, 7-methyl-2-phenylquinoline N-phenyl-2-benzothiazolamine, benz[c]acridine, benz[a]acridine 5-methyl-benz[c]acridine, 10-methyl-benz[a]acridine, 9-phenyl-acridine Screening of polar fractions for azaarenes and amino- PAHs (Tentatively identified compounds) Relevant priority and non-priority pollutants site scale

21. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Multi-stress situation Example: Critical prometryn concentrations for flagellate population under nitrogen limitation Mitigation of eutrophication may enhance vulnerability towards toxicants! Joint Effects with other Stressors

22. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Chronic exposure to estrogens leads to significantly lower survival than in control fish when exposed to pathogens Joint Effects with other Stressors Multi-stress situation Example: toxicants and pathogens in fish Exposure to toxicants may enhance vulnerability towards other stressors!

23. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Conclusions and Recommendations Toxic stress plays an important role for Ecological Status together with eutrophication, hydromorphology …. Monitoring of priority pollutants is insufficient to estimate toxic pressure on ecological status Add emerging pollutants Add effect monitoring to avoid ignoring of unexpected toxicants Be aware that other stressors and factors interact with toxic effects (nutrition, pathogens, recovery….) Add state-of-the-art models and stressor specific indices to link chemical and ecological status

24. MODELKEY (511237-GOCE) is a research project funded by http://www.modelkey.org Consortium Thanks to the MODELKEY partners for contribution and to you for your attention