1. Refining Indicators Finding the Best Measures for Improvements in Urban Housing Michael Barndt Neighborhood Data Center Program Nonprofit Center of Milwaukee mbarndt@nonprofitcentermilwaukee.org Community Indicators Conference Reno, Nevada March 2004

2. Where I’m Coming From  Nonprofit Center of Milwaukee – Capacity building for nonprofits  Neighborhood Data Center – a clearinghouse defined by a Data/GIS Services mission  Focus on neighborhood program decision-support – work is demand driven – “retail” services  Rich data environment in Milwaukee – especially in housing  Rich technology environment – program staff of 9  6 are “apprentices” from local universities  Member – National Neighborhood Indicators Partnership and Making Connections Initiative

3. There are two kinds of people in the world  Those who think that we can all come together and find through consensus that we are all alike – that there is one common view  Those who see differences – that perhaps …. there are three kinds of people …  Academic syndrome - Closure problems  Confirmed by market driven service  Continually new, diverse requests  Well beyond a set of indicators and reports

4. Talking Points  Multiple contexts for viewing a subject  Indicators should not be oversimplified – their contents change as they are unbundled  Place/time/sub-communities matter  Use of data is more than creating indicators  We still are not able to measure much of what we would really like to know

5. Varying Perspectives  Housing Markets  Housing Preservation  Resident Benefits  Equity and Justice  Quality of Life

6. Varying Perspectives Housing Markets  Values increase, investment attracted, quality maintained  Home ownership, equity through appreciation  Development rewards  Strong, safe, organized neighborhoods  Attractiveness, demand, value

7. Varying Perspectives Housing Preservation  Loss of housing stock may trump housing production  Housing condition enforcement  Resources to maintain and restore  Predatory behavior  Landlord behavior  Program mix appropriate to needs

8. Varying Perspectives Resident Benefit  Affordability – supporting access, reasonable costs for housing  Ownership as asset – wealth building  Choices for renters – ability to be effective consumers  Place/ People – Gentrification  Homeless

9. Varying Perspectives Equity and Justice  Segregation  Market perception  Institutional behaviors  Access to resources  Political will to respond  Spatial isolation within region  Race, income, political jurisdiction

10. Varying Perspectives Quality of Life  Much more than housing  Mobility  Unstable Transitions  “Urban Village”  Safety  “Community”  Collective local action  Economically viable  Services  Role in region

11. Parsing Indicators  Ownership  Value  Equity – (ownership/value)  Housing Supply  Condition  Investment  Equality

12. Ownership Definition and measurement  Census /city approach  Data accuracy  Homestead effects  Land contract sub-market  Rate of ownership  Capacity factor

13. Ownership Who owns?  Life Cycle patterns – the Elderly  Transition of property  Late interventions  Owner – renter fault lines  Bi-modal characteristics – income, race, mobility, children, participation, multiple problems  Persistence of renters  Policy biases toward ownership  Investor owners// slum lords  Patterns/ Practice

16. “Ownership” Getting at the large term  Responsibilities of ownership  Investment  Order  Neighborhood upkeep  Organizations – Block clubs

17. Value Tracking Sales data  Sales  Limited numbers of transactions  Affected by type  Affected by circumstance – arms length  Sales perspectives  Volume  Value/ changing value  Within a market

21. Value Tracking Assessment  Model  Quality  “Comparable” Zones  Amenity effects  Implementation  Effect of volume of information  Data limitations – quality/ condition  Pace – sensitivity choices  Administrative effects

24. Value Unbundling the Indicator  Differential markets – duplexes  Shifting housing stock base  Consider a resident owner perspective  Flipping – distortions in market information

25. Value Effects of perception  Changing expectations  Speculation effects  Investment/ commodity  Effects on investment/ maintenance decisions by owners  Effects on lending decisions

26. Equity Ownership as Wealth Building  Common assumption  Equity deteriation  Use of equity loans  Effects of predatory lending  Value of “bootstrap” programs  Difficulties measuring resident experience  Wealth other than income  Debt and factors affecting debt  Credit worthiness – Access to primary financial systems

27. Housing Supply Vacancy  Hard to measure vacant units  Especially those ready for occupancy  Some units taken off market – duplexes  Vacant land  Understated  Government ownership

31. Housing supply Interpretation  “Abandonment” as a stage  Threshold for investment decisions  Triage has come to mean public abandonment of certain neighborhoods  Relationship to population change  Did public leave first?  Or did housing condition/options drive them out  Regional growth often reinvents neighborhoods beyond basic needs for supply

32. Housing supply Use  Residents like vacant lots  Are lots effective open space?  Are lots used for other purposes?  Gardens  Tot lots  Are lots appropriate for redevelopment?  Assembly issues  Land-banking as a policy  Holding action  Obsolete footprints  Bias against “infill”

33. Investment HMDA  Investment patterns  Lending packages for slumlords  Sub-prime lending  Predatory lending

34. Investment Foreclosure  Tax foreclosure  Mortgage foreclosure  Patterns of concentration  A subset - elderly  Resident owner/ Investor owner  Recent policy effects  Patterns of return of property to the market

37. Investment Maintenance/ Improvements  Costs to maintain  The back side to “bootstrap” options  Lending limits when costs exceed value  Costs do not vary by geography  Incentives  Disincentives  Effects of lax enforcement

38. Investment Programs  Mix of options and resources  Running out of funds  How well are options marketed  Is there capacity to implement  Especially local  Who does not fit the options?

39. Investment Access to capital  Affordability  Work-income comes first  Costs of new investments  Public Policy  Public policy stresses increasing middle income participation/ or removing lower income concentrations  Failure of “trickle-down”  Tax structure – subsidizing wealth  Costs  Increasing burden - % of income spent on housing  Risks associated with bootstrap approaches

40. Equality Discrimination by race  HMDA lending / refusal patterns  Importance of testing  Debate over measures of segregation  Extent of transitory “integrated” neighborhoods  Extent of “unstable” “integrated” neighborhoods

41. Equality Discrimination against persons  Who cares about low income housing supply  Renter programs  Homeless programs  Employment – wages/ stability  Low income solutions in the past  Public housing ghettos  Weeding out  Felons  Transitional services  Homeless – linking to the full cycle

42. Equality Lending practices  From “trust”  Racial effects  Community connections – local lending  To formulas  What is the bias in these?

43. Equality Discrimination against place  Redlining  Regional equity  Taxing resources  Schools  Public policy  Local capacity  For self help  For locally driven development  Public/ nonprofit partnerships

44. Equality Redefining place  Destroy a village to save it  Eliminate old housing stock  Recreate a community, but for different people  Gentrification