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1 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2006 21 February 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "1 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2006 21 February 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2006 21 February 2007

2 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 2 Disclaimer This presentation is not intended, and does not, constitute or form part of, any offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of, any securities in George Wimpey Plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities, nor shall this presentation (or any part of it) nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance. Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from any expected future events or results referred to in these forward looking statements.

3 3 Welcome John Robinson (Chairman)

4 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 4 Agenda IntroductionPeter Redfern Financial review Andrew Carr-Locke US housing reviewSteve Parker UK housing reviewPeter Redfern Outlookand strategyPeter Redfern Questions and answers

5 5 Introduction Peter Redfern (Group Chief Executive)

6 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 6 Group performance 2006 Highlights Group profit before tax and pre-exceptional items at £370.9 million Group volumes at an all time high of 17,963 14% growth in UK profits delivered UK margins improved and progress plan accelerated Cost savings of £25m and $20m targeted for 2007 Cash flow of £434m generated before growth land investment, tax and returns to investors Strong balance sheet as gearing reduced to 23% New skills and strengths added across the Group

7 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 7 Taking the business forward Clear strategic priorities Leadership –UK Ian Sutcliffe, Managing Director George Wimpey UK Land –UK Paul Churchouse, Head of Land Development – UK Head of Planning appointed, starts April Cost –US Lou Steffens, Senior VP Florida Region –UK Peter Williams, Head of Procurement Sales and marketing –Graham Hughes transferred to US from UK –US Sheryl Palmer, Senior VP West Region

8 8 2006 financial review Andrew Carr-Locke (Group Finance Director)

9 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 9 2006 Full year results £m 2006 before exceptional items 2006 exceptional items 2006 total 2005 total Change Revenue3,147.4- 3,003.2+ 5% Operating profit422.8(60.7)362.1437.5- 17% Interest(51.9)- (71.0)- 27% Profit before tax370.9(60.7)310.2366.5- 15% Tax(114.9)22.7(92.2)(113.7) EPS64.4(9.6)54.864.3 NAV per share426p389p

10 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 10 2006 Full year results £m 20062005Change Revenue3,147.43,003.2+ 5% Operating profit422.8437.5- 3% Interest(51.9)(71.0)- 27% Profit before tax370.9366.5+ 1% Tax30%31% EPS64.464.3 NAV per share426p389p DPS19.4p17.6p ROACE20.322.3 Note: EPS, ROACE, operating profit and profit before tax are all shown before exceptional items

11 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 11 Segmental analysis Full year 2006 TurnoverOperating profit*Operating margin** £mChange£mChange20062005 UK2,391.2+ 11%317.6+ 14%13.0%12.9% US756.2- 11%116.9- 31%15.5%20.0% Corporate-(11.7) TOTAL3,147.4+ 5%422.8- 3% * Before exceptional items ** Operating margin before JVs and exceptional items Exchange rate in 2006 £:1.84$ 2005 £:1.82$

12 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 12 Completions Full year 2006 CompletionsAve selling price NoChange£ / $Change UK private11,982+ 12%186.4- 1% UK affordable1,634+ 15%94.9- 4% UK total13,616+ 13%175.4- 2% US4,347- 12%319.6+ 1% GROUP TOTAL17,963+ 6%

13 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 13 Interest charge £m 2006 2005Change Loans43.950.0- 12% Pensions6.88.5- 20% Derivatives(5.6)5.3 Other6.87.2- 6% TOTAL51.971.0- 27%

14 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 14 US land write-downs Breakdown $m£m Land write-downs104.953.6 Options write-off13.87.1 Exceptional earnings pre-tax charge118.760.7 Less deferred tax(44.4)(22.7) Exceptional earnings post-tax charge74.338.0 EPS impact9.6p Write-down reflects selling price reduction needed to provide a normal sales rate calculated on a prudent basis

15 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 15 US land write-downs Industry comparisons Land write-down and options write-off $m Land stocks (years) Morrison Homes118.73.5 Centex590.86.4 DR Horton334.06.1 Hovnanian332.95.3 KB Homes414.65.1 Lennar570.96.8 Pulte505.06.6 Ryland80.74.1 Standard Pacific73.76.0 Toll Brothers138.98.6 Credit Suisse estimates/company’s own reports – 2006 year end

16 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 16 Balance sheet £m31 Dec 200631 Dec 2005 Fixed assets and joint ventures71.857.6 Land2,339.92,153.4 Deferred terms(607.3)(380.5) Other net operating assets497.2469.9 Tax and provisions(90.6)(104.9) Net pension deficit(116.8)(129.2) TOTAL CAPITAL EMPLOYED2,094.22,066.3

17 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 17 Balance sheet Financing 31 Dec 200631 Dec 2005 Shareholders’ funds £m1,707.11,544.4 Net debt £m387.1521.9 Capital employed £m2,094.22,066.3 Gearing23%34% Interest cover last 12 months 7.0x6.2x Cash interest cover last 12 months 8.3x8.8x

18 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 18 Cash flow summary £m20062005 Operating profit362.1437.5 Land realisations896.6737.4 Replacement land spend(781.1)(762.7) Other working capital movements(43.2)(49.0) Cash inflow before growth434.4363.2 Growth land spend(129.3)(76.3) Cash inflow from operations305.1286.9 Interest / tax(151.4)(171.3) Dividends(58.2)(53.7) Exchange rate / other39.3(62.9) Decrease (increase) in net debt134.8(1.0)

19 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 19 Financial summary Full year 2006 Group profit before tax*£370.9 m+ 1% UK operating profit**£317.6 m + 14% US operating profit* $214.7 m - 30% ROACE last 12 months*20.3% (2005: 22.3%) Gearing 23% (2005: 34%) Shareholders’ funds £1,707.1 m+ 11% Dividend 19.4p+ 10% * Before exceptional items ** Operating profit including JVs

20 20 US housing review Steve Parker (President, Morrison Homes)

21 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 21 US housing Financial summary 20062005Change2004 Legal completions4,3474,921- 12%4,422 Ave selling price$319,600$312,700+ 2%$288,900 Revenue $m1,389.11,538.8- 10%1,277.3 Operating profit $m214.7308.3- 30%188.3 Operating margin15.5%20.0%- 4.5pp14.7%

22 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 22 2006 started with soft market conditions, steadily worsened through to Q4 Tough market conditions caused by –increased interest rates –affordability –investors cancelling homes under contract –overstocking of inventory –incentives/discounting by US competitors Consistently weak across Arizona, Florida and Northern California US housing 2006 market conditions

23 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 23 Short term market conditions Total US stock position Dec 2006June 2006Dec 2005June 2005 Existing homes 3.5 m3.7 m2.8 m2.7 m Months’ supply 6.8 5.14.3 New homes 0.54 m0.57 m 0.48 m0.50 m Months’ supply 5.96.14.84.2 Source: NAR/US Census Bureau New homes includes homes completed, under construction and not yet started

24 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 24 US housing Industry comparisons 2006 CompanyPBIT marginsROACELand stocks (years) Morrison Homes15.5%24.6%3.5 Centex11.7%11.6%6.4 DR Horton14.6%12.9%6.1 Hovnanian5.4%5.3%5.3 KB Homes13.8%15.8%5.1 Lennar14.2%18.4%6.8 Pulte12.7%13.7%6.6 Ryland14.9%19.4%4.1 Standard Pacific17.2%11.8%6.0 Toll Brothers20.4%14.9%8.6 Estimates from Credit Suisse, pre-exceptional figures based on latest full year

25 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 25 US housing Total landbank

26 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 26 US housing 2007 market conditions First 7 weeks show early signs of stabilisation –steady housing inventory levels –flattening of incentives –cancellation rates back to historical levels –traffic levels higher than 2006 –improving press coverage

27 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 27 US housing Morrison sales performance Week 7 2007 H2 2006 H1 200620052004 Ave outlets open11511210295100 Ave sales rate0.660.360.771.050.93 Ave sales price301308333313289 Ave cancellation rate20%52%26%15%14% No. in order book1,0187542,0751,9951,705

28 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 28 US housing Average weekly sales rates

29 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 29 US housing Performance initiatives Land –renegotiation of existing land contracts –land buying process $20 million targeted cost savings –5% initial reduction in build costs –initiatives across all areas of the business –outsource second year warranty programme Overhead reductions – 20% across the business –‘right-sizing the business’ Sales –clear strategy –focus on opening outlets on time –achieve and maintain a consistent sales rate –re-build backlog levels

30 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 30 US housing Summary Early 2007 shows signs of market stability Order book low coming into 2007 Firm actions taken in 2006 2007 challenging year –focus on driving sales volume in H2 to build the backlog We believe we are well placed for 2008

31 31 UK housing review Peter Redfern (Group Chief Executive)

32 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 32 UK housing Financial summary 20062005 Change Legal completions – total13,61612,100+ 13% Private11,98210,678+ 12% Affordable1,6341,422+ 15% Ave selling price – total£175,400£178,000- 1% Private£186,400£188,600- 1% Affordable£94,900£98,600- 4% Revenue £m2,391.22,157.6+ 11% Operating profit £m317.6278.0+ 14% Operating margin*13.0%12.9%+ 0.1pp *Excluding JV results

33 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 33 UK housing Delivery on promises H1 2006 low point of marginGross margin in H2 2.2% ahead Better H1/2 balancingH1 2006 compared to H1 2005 over 25% improvement Impact of strong order bookReal benefits of stronger negotiating position delivered in H2 2006 Develop our good cost saving performanceSignificant savings underpinned margins in 2006. New target for 2007 Deal with underperforming businessesThe 6 lowest performing businesses in 2005 have increased margins by over 4%

34 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 34 UK housing Market conditions Market stable throughout period –total market volumes improved on slow 2005 –second hand market quite strong –buyer confidence solid George Wimpey underlying house price movement was 3 – 4% Continuing imbalance between supply and demand is supporting market Affordability remains constrained, but limited impact from interest rate rises

35 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 35 UK housing George Wimpey sales performance FY 2006FY 2005FY 2004 Ave outlets open275307295 Ave sales rate0.850.710.69 Ave sales price (private)189.5190.9193.8 No. in order book (private)3,2883,0452,421 Record 2007 opening order book gives great platform Open outlets remain as main target area for improvement

36 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 36 UK housing Spotlight on cost Cost management has always been a strength of the business Ian Sutcliffe has brought a new professional focus and structure to this –specific targets set for key elements –over 80 cost reduction initiatives underway or identified to activate –new national Head of Procurement identifying significant savings Sales and marketing costs are a key target –2007 target to reduce by over £12m –driven by national/regional media and advertising production buying –driven by savings in show homes and sales benchmarking Construction costs remains an area of focus –specification and design savings key –national preferred house type range now in effect with 3,000 homes under construction

37 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 37 UK housing Spotlight on cost £000 2006200520042003 Build cost as a % of revenue 51.4%52.0%50.1%51.7% Build cost per plot£90.2£92.8£93.2£90.3 Build cost per sq ft£97.5£95.7£91.9£99.3 £/per sq ft 2005 cost95.7 Estimated impact of mix changes 0.9 Impact of estimated 3.5% cost inflation 3.4 Savings in construction costs(2.5) 2006 cost97.5 Impact of £2.50 per sq ft saving equates to circa £35m pa

38 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 38 UK housing Strengthened land position Owned and controlled landStrategic acres 2006200520062005 North15,63715,1376,8805,112 Midlands19,12613,4664,5084,662 South21,21319,0274,4584,395 City1,7793,355 G2244- TOTAL57,99950,98515,84614,169 14% growth in owned and controlled plots All 2007 expected completions have planning

39 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 39 UK housing Source of short term owned and controlled landbank Optimum mix 40% short term 30% medium term 30% long term

40 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 40 UK housing Strengthened owned land position Cost per plot (000)2006 2005 Opening landbank£46.5£45.4 Acquired£50.4£49.8 Completions(£49.1)(£47.1) Closing landbank£47.3£46.5 Land value % ASP25.3%26.0% Plot cost in landbank below that on completions Shift in landbank mix will start to come through in 2007

41 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 41 UK housing Margin commitments firmed up H2 2006 H1 2006 H2 2005 H1 2005 Gross margin %21.519.320.323.5 Commitment to improvement from H1 2006 ‘low point’ delivered Clear statement of future operating margin targets: – 14% in 2007 – ongoing growth to 16% over 2-3 years – longer term target of 18%

42 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 42 UK housing Outlook All plots for 2007 have planning Cost savings offsetting build inflation Market conditions remain stable Very strong order book – over 40% of full year completions sold Margins in order book are ahead of H2 2006 completions

43 43 Group outlook and strategy Peter Redfern (Group Chief Executive)

44 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 44 Group strategy update Stated our objectives in July 2007 –to become the leading housebuilder in the UK –to achieve top 3 positions in the high growth markets of the US In all of our businesses we believe these results are best achieved by focusing on the basics of a housebuilding business –land –continuous cost reduction –customers and sales processes –people Growth and financial results automatically follow where we get these basics right Significant step changes in 2006 over previous years

45 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 45 Group strategy US strategy update In difficult markets we have re-examined our strategy, and believe that it holds good The US homebuilding markets in growth states retain their capacity to deliver exceptional profits over time We have reduced our total risk exposure without damaging the long term capacity of the business We have enhanced the competitive position of Morrison –landbank value protected –exceptional people recruited –cost management approach upgraded significantly –sales processes reviewed and strengthened

46 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 46 George Wimpey Plc Outlook UK market stable, some interest rate risk, but currently robust Strong forward position in the UK –order book –landbank –2007 planning Commitment to exceed 14% UK operating margin in 2007 2007 expected to remain tough on bottom line in the US –weak order book and pressure on prices However all signs are of US market stabilising –good chance of recovery towards stronger 2008

47 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 47 George Wimpey Plc Forthcoming events AGM statement and trading update26 April 2007 Pre-close trading update –management dinner27 June 2007 Interim results1 August 2007 Site visitOctober 2007

48 48 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2006 APPENDIX

49 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 49 George Wimpey Plc Undeveloped land disposals £m 2006 2005 Land sales UK32.224.3 US0.313.2 TOTAL32.537.5 Profit UK17.215.4 US0.31.6 TOTAL17.517.0 Land sales are not included in revenue. Profits on land sales are included in net operating expenses

50 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 50 George Wimpey Plc Group reservations ReservationsAve outletsPer outlet / per week 200620052006200520062005 UK private12,22511,3182753070.850.71 UK affordable1,6241,881 UK TOTAL13,84913,199 US TOTAL3,1065,211107950.561.05 GROUP TOTAL16,95518,410382402

51 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 51 Impact of dollar 20062005Change Morrison Homes turnover $m$1,389.1$1,538.8- 9.7% Morrison Homes op profit $m$214.7$308.3- 30.4% Ave exchange rate1.841.82 Morrison Homes turnover £m£756.2£845.5- 10.6% Morrison Homes £ op profit £m£116.9£169.4- 31.0%

52 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 52 US housing Turnover analysis 20062005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Volume4,347 2,379 1,9684,9212,9251,996 ASP $000s320 309 333313320302 Turnover $m1,389 734 6551,539936603

53 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 53 US housing Margin analysis 20062005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross profit $m373.8172.4201.4454.7288.2166.5 Gross margin %26.923.530.729.230.627.1 Direct Selling $m(81.4)(44.7)(36.7)(72.8)(41.2)(31.6) Overhead costs $m(78.3)(38.9)(39.4)(76.4)(40.6)(35.8) Land profits0.6 -2.8- Operating profit $m214.789.4125.3308.3206.4101.9 Operating margin %15.512.219.120.022.016.9

54 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 54 US housing Activity analysis 20062005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave house size sq ft2,2742,1512,4232,2992,2632,355 ASP $ / sq ft138.7139.9137.5136.0141.0128.2

55 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 55 US housing Price mix 20062005 Completions %YearH2H1YearH2H1 $0 – 200k171916171519 $201 – 250k141711171420 $251 – 300k14 12171817 $301 – 350k181619161913 $351 - 400k161517121311 $401 - 450k10 11999 $451 – 500k656666 $500k +548665 TOTAL100

56 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 56 US housing Geographic mix 20062005 CompletionsYearH2H1YearH2H1 West8744903841,187727460 Southeast1,6388487902,2531,321932 Southwest1,8351,0417941,481877604 TOTAL4,3472,3791,9684,9212,9251,996 Average selling price $000 West408396422429430428 Southeast349334365300313282 Southwest251246259239240237 TOTAL320309333313320302

57 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 57 US housing Regional performance TurnoverOperating profitOperating margin 2006 $m 2005 $m 2006 $m 2005 $m 2006 % 2005 % West35651042.9139.712.127.0 Southeast572675111.1141.319.420.7 Southwest46135477.151.016.714.0 Corporate--(16.4)(23.7)-- TOTAL1,3891,539214.7308.315.520.0

58 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 58 US housing Short term land 20062005 Owned and optionedYearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period20,81220,13620,81218,89219,66118,892 Additions1,6343421,2926,8414,0762,765 Legal completions(4,347)(2,379)(1,968)(4,921)(2,925)(1,996) End of period18,099 20,13620,812 19,661 Controlled End of period638 3,5392,702 3,058 TOTAL LANDBANK18,737 23,67523,514 22,719 LAND SPEND $m284128156303152151

59 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 59 US housing Landbank by region 20062005 West3,0474,093 Southeast9,45911,989 Southwest6,2317,432 TOTAL18,73723,514

60 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 60 UK housing Turnover analysis 20062005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Privatevolume11,9826,8445,13810,6786,5244,154 ASP £000186.4185.7187.2188.6184.8194.5 turnover £m2,2331,2719622,0141,206808 Affordablevolume1,6349187161,4221,000422 ASP £00094.997.391.798.6103.387.7 turnover £m155896614010337 Otherturnover £m3-3422 TOTALvolume13,6167,7625,85412,1007,5244,576 ASP £000175.4 175.5178.0174.0184.6 turnover £m2,3911,3601,0312,1581,311847

61 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 61 UK housing Margin analysis 20062005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross profit £m492.1293.0199.1464.2265.6198.6 Gross margin %20.6%21.5%19.3%21.5%20.3%23.5% Direct Selling £m(85.8)(42.8)(43.0)(86.2)(45.7)(40.5) Overhead costs(113.5)(61.7)(51.8)(114.6)(58.3)(56.3) Land profits17.26.610.615.49.85.6 Operating profit £m310.0195.1114.9278.8171.4107.4 Operating margin* %13.0%14.3%11.2%12.9%13.1%12.7% JV results7.68.1(0.5)(0.8)(0.1)(0.7) Profit before interest317.6203.2114.4278.0171.3106.7 * Operating margin excludes JV results

62 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 62 UK housing Private development product mix 20062005 Completions %YearH2H1YearH2H1 Apartments41%42%40%36%37%34% 1 / 2 / 3 bed houses29%28%31%32% 4 / 5 bed houses30% 29%32%31%34% TOTAL100%

63 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 63 UK housing Private development activity analysis 20062005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Average house size sq ft9549419719949801,015 Average selling price (£/sq ft)195198193190189192

64 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 64 UK housing Private development price mix 20062005 Completions %YearH2H1YearH2H1 £51 – 100k445674 £101 – 150k302833303130 £151 – 200k32333132 £201 – 250k181916181719 £251 – 300k888768 £301 – 500k776666 £500k +111111 TOTAL100

65 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 65 UK housing Private development geographic mix 20062005 LegalsSize sq ft ASP £000 LegalsSize sq ft ASP £000 North3,9631,029167.93,8131,043167.0 Midlands3,531973174.93,079965170.2 South4,057938227.93,599989225.6 City152731172.5134802273.9 TOTAL11,703977190.910,625999189.1 Joint Ventures279--53-- TOTAL11,982954186.410,678994188.6

66 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 66 UK housing Private development average weekly sales rates

67 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 67 UK housing Private development net sales prices on reservations

68 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 68 UK housing Short term land (private and affordable) 20062005 OWNED YearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period39,44141,68839,44137,22239,78437,222 Net acquired17,4269,3258,10114,3197,1817,138 Completions(13,616)(7,762)(5,854)(12,100)(7,524)(4,576) End of period43,251 41,68839,441 39,784 CONTROLLED14,748 12,82911,544 14,596 TOTAL LANDBANK57,999 54,51750,985 54,380

69 Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2006 69 UK housing Owned land (private and affordable) 20062005 Short termPlotsCost per plot £k Value £m PlotsCost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank39,44146.51,83337,22245.41,690 Net acquired17,42650.487914,31949.8712 Completions(13,616)49.1(668)(12,100)47.1(569) End of period43,25147.32,04439,44146.51,833 Strategic Acres Value £m End of period 15,846 81 14,169 71


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