1. Welcome

2. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk Defining Reality

3. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk A Century of Change…

4. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

5. 2011 Christian 2011

6. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk 2001 Christian 2001 Lost since 2001

7. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk 1920 Christian 1920s

8. CofE? Lost CofE? 1920s 2011 www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

9. 1920s 2011 attendees www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

10. Growth and decline indicators of association with the Church of England, 1905 to 2009 www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

11. Over 60 non Christians Christian 2011 Over 60 Christians www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

12. No religion Other religions Not stated www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

13. No religion Other religions Not stated Attend other Denominations? www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

14. No religion Other religions Not stated Attend other Denominations? Attend Cof E www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

15. The Squeeze on Resources www.churchgrowthRD.org

16. Stipendiary clergy actuals and projections 2002 to 2022 www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

17. SLOW ON-GOING DECLINE The average decline in Church attendance has been 1.3% per annum for the past 30 years. The average parish in the Church of England has 79 people attending. This means that the average parish has been declining by around one person per year. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

18. 20 years agoToday 1.3% decline per year One person, per church, per year may not seem like much… But, over 20 years this means we’ve lost a quarter of our attendees: www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

19. A Methodist Story This is what was predicted…

20. A Methodist Story This is what has happened since…

21. A Methodist Story In making the projection, Butler & Jones did not assume anything would go radically ‘wrong’ among the Methodist’s Church’s membership They simply took the view membership would decline through: –Deaths in an increasingly elderly membership, and –A failure to recruit from outside existing members and their immediate families

22. www.churchofengland.org

23. C of E Age Profile Trend

24. Church of England Projection

27. Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions 10 Year AWA change: 2001 – 2011 (Smoothed) LondonBlackburnAverage (mean) -21.7%7.3% -7.2% 5 Year AWA change: 2007 – 2011 (Smoothed) SheffieldBlackburnAverage (mean) -15.6%5.7% -3.8% AWA per Capita: 2011 HerefordBirminghamAverage (mean) 1.153.96 2.17%

28. Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions 10 Year Comparisons (2001– 11 smoothed) % National Change Population7.9% AWA -7.2%

29. Fresh Expressions www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk In the 6 dioceses surveyed to date: Who’s coming?: 23% Christian, 35% de-churched and 42% are non-churched. The investment ratio: for every 1 person sent, another 2.5 are now present. Small starting team: 75% of cases 3 to 12 Growth: At least 1/3rd quickly grow to a size (37 -50) and then plateau Over half lay led (and 41% of leaders are laity with no formal designation or training).

30. Fresh Expressions www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk FX attendance accounts for 4.4% to 14.4% of diocesan attendance (average 9.5%) in dioceses surveyed. Increase in attendance brought about by FX is greater than the prior AWA decline in each of these 6 dioceses (2006-10).

32. Quinquennial Goals To take forward the spiritual and numerical growth of the Church of England. To re-structure the Church’s ministry for the century coming, so as to make sure that there is a growing and sustainable Christian witness in every local community. To contribute as the national Church to the common good.

33. A Strategic Response Confidence in the Gospel Facing up to reality Sharing learning about mission and growth More intentional use of resources Less jam spreading Investing where need/opportunity