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Tony Villamil www.weg.com Florida Entered the New Year with Strong Economic Momentum: A Positive Environment for South Florida Real Estate Economic Outlook: It’s the Economy! Get Smart on What to Expect in 2015 January 28, 2015
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Economic Drivers and Long-Term Fundamentals of South Florida* are Mostly Positive for 2015 and Beyond US Economic Activity/ Financial Indicators Global Economic Performance Florida Business Climate www.weg.com South Florida Fundamentals West Palm Beach Broward Miami-Dade *Comprised of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
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Economic DriverOutlook 2015 Florida “Operating on All Cylinders” as we Enter 2015: US and Global Economies, Together with State Business Climate, are Key Drivers of South Florida US Economy Economy growing at 3% plus this year: Positive for key industries of Florida and South Florida such as Wholesale Trade, Construction, Retail, Tourism, Professional Services and Manufacturing Florida Business Climate Pro-growth Governor and Legislature. Election results solidify top business climate. Low and stable taxes, positive fiscal situation, aggressive recruitment, retention and expansion of companies by Governor/EFI www.weg.com Global Economy A mixed performance continuing in 2015. Euro Zone slow growth. Canada, Asia and most of Latin America countries experiencing moderate growth
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US Financial Indicators: Positive for South Florida in 2015 www.weg.com
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Household Net Worth: Positive for Consumer Spending Increasing in 2015 Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Flow of Funds Accounts, Flows and Outstandings, 3Q-2014 (Dec 11, 2014). Up $24 Trillion Since ‘08
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www.weg.com Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Flow of Funds Accounts, Flows and Outstandings, 3Q-2014 (Dec 11, 2014). US Non-Financial Debt: Households Borrowing Prudently, Business Debt Growing YearsHouseholdsBusiness State & Local Governments Federal Financial and Housing “Bubbles” 2005 2006 2007 11.2 9.7 6.7 9.0 10.9 13.6 5.8 3.9 5.5 7.0 3.9 4.9 The “Great Recession” and the Aftermath 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -0.2 -1.7 -2.6 -1.5 0.2 1.5 6.3 -2.3 1.5 4.7 6.0 5.1 0.6 4.0 2.3 -1.7 -0.2 -1.3 24.2 22.7 20.2 11.4 10.9 6.5 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2.3 3.4 2.7 6.0 5.0 5.2 -1.3 1.2 -2.8 6.0 2.5 7.2 Keynes Lives!
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www.weg.com Monetary Base: Record Breaking Growth: Exit Strategy of FED Keeps Me “Awake in Miami!” Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research. Jan 2002-Dec 2014. Shaded areas indicate US Recessions. From QE1 to QE3! Ample Liquidity
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www.weg.com Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research. Q1:2002-Q3:2014. Shaded areas indicate US recessions.
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US Economic Activity Likely to Gain Moderate Momentum in 2015: A Positive Development for South Florida Real Estate Industries Sources: BEA and The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG) for Estimate (E) and Forecast (F). www.weg.com
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Global Economy Continues to Underperform Again in 2015: But There are Significant Country Differences Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, January 20, 2015 Revision. www.weg.com
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Top Business Climate, Low-Interest Rates and Declining Energy Prices are Propelling Florida and South Florida to Another Strong Economic Year www.weg.com
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Florida’s Real GDP Growing Faster than National Average: State Likely to Grow Faster than Texas this Year! Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG) for Estimate (E) and Forecast (F). www.weg.com "Great Recession"
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Economic Activity Accelerated in South Florida During 2014: Additional Gains Expected this Year www.weg.com
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South Florida Payroll Employment Growth Rose Strongly in 2014: Continued Solid Growth Expected this Year in a Variety of Industries Category Dec 2013 Employment Dec 2014 Employment Over the Year Change Over the Year % Change Total Payroll Employment2,414,4002,487,200+72,8003.0% Total Private2,105,5002,177,200+71,7003.4% Trade, Transportation & Utilities575,500590,600+15,1002.6% Professional & Business Services378,700396,700+18,0005.0% Education & Health Services352,700363,100+10,4003.0% Leisure & Hospitality293,400301,700+8,3003.0% Financial Activities167,300172,700+5,4003.2% Construction97,200104,900+7,7008.0% Source: DEO, FREIDA, December 2014 Current Employment *Comprised of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. www.weg.com
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South Florida* Housing Activity Consistent with Steady Growth: Preferably to “Boom and Bust” Housing Indicators201220132014 Housing Starts11,47717,22521,311 Single-Family Home Sales39,23242,50144,903 Median Single-Family Home Price ($)$202,200$250,000$265,000 Multifamily Home Sales46,75448,40646,317 Multifamily Median Home Price ($)$103,000$129,000$145,000 Single-Family Homes (Months Supply Inventory)4.9 5.4 Multifamily Homes (Months Supply Inventory)5.45.96.8 Sources: Florida Realtors and US Census Bureau. *Comprised of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. www.weg.com
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Global “Brand” positive for expansion of key South Florida industries Corporate relocations and growing technology hub of State Higher education cluster MIA/Fort Lauderdale airports Port of Miami post Panama ships Long-Term Fundamentals of South Florida Remain Strong for 2015 and Beyond: Strengthening the Cyclical Upturn Strong Fundamentals Strengthen the Outlook for A Strong 2015 Economic Year Strong Fundamentals Strengthen the Outlook for A Strong 2015 Economic Year www.weg.com
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“Bottom Line” 2015 Florida likely to outperform National economy again this year Top performing State among “The Big Four” South Florida has become a leading region of Florida Continued low-interest rates, declining energy prices and pro-growth State, add to the fundamental strengths of Florida and South Florida Downside risks to monitor : FED Policy Euro Zone and Japan “malaise” Middle East The “Executive Order” WH www.weg.com
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Happy Business Hunting, with Moderation!
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Visit us at: www.weg.com www.weg.com Twitter: @tonyvillamil www.weg.com
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