1. Human activities and global environmental change Diana Liverman or

2. NASA

4. Changing society Population – Growing but more slowly Energy – Growing but at lower carbon intensity Demand for land and food – Growing especially in intensity and per capita and with some slowing or reversals of forest loss Poverty↓ Inequality↑

5. The increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Steffen W et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:842-867 ©2011 by The Royal Society

6. Population Global Population growth (1750 – 2010). Sources: US Census Bureau International Data Base 2011..World Bank – World Development Indicators 2011. Maddison. 2001. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. OECD.

8. Fertility rates are falling (children per woman)

9. World population growth is slowing Data from UNPOPIN, 2012

10. Total real GDP Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

12. Changes in poverty 1981 to 2015 Chandy and Gertz, 2011, The changing state of global poverty from 2005 to2015, Brookings

13. Changes in inequality within countries www.oecd.org/els/social/inequality

14. http://www.theoildrum.com/ World Energy Consumption by Source, Based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent years

15. Decarbonization: Carbon dioxide emissions /GDP have fallen Data from IEA

16. Rise of renewables http://www.ren21.net/Portals/97/documents/GSR/REN21_GSR2011.pdf

17. Domesticated land Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997) National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

18. Forests returning in some countries Lambin and Meyfroit, PNAS, 2011

19. Fertiliser consumption International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

20. Growth in cereal production driven by yield not area – intensification not extensification Data from FAOSTAT 2012

21. Changes in nitrogen use since 2000 Data from FAOSTAT 2012

22. Geography of human influence

23. Changing geographies of GHG emissions http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqV-kx2ClXU

24. GHG emissions and income in the UK NEF 2011

25. Carbon is transferred in trade Emissions embodied in products (2004) Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds) Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also http://supplychainCO2.stanford.edu/

26. Water use is also transferred through trade in agricultural and industrial products 1996–2005. Hoekstra A Y, Mekonnen M M. 2012. PNAS. ©2012 by National Academy of Sciences

27. Take home messages Humanity dramatically increased its use of resources and pollution since 1950 There are some signs that some drivers are slowing or changing – Population growth is slowing and will level off – Energy and carbon intensity is declining – Agricultural intensification and other factors is slowing or reversing deforestation in some regions Poverty↓ inequality↑ Many people still struggle to meet basic needs and aspire to increase consumption. A smaller proportion are consuming too much, including carbon, water and other resources embodied in trade

28. Welcome to Future Earth Research for global sustainability photos: www.dawide.com