1. Air Quality Forecasting in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area Bill Ryan Department of Meteorology Penn State wfr1@psu.edu National Weather Service, Mount Holly, April 28, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~wfryan/mount-holly-2010.pptx

2. What Do We Forecast? Ozone (O 3 ) – since 1996 – Photochemical pollutant, requires hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen (NO x ) and UV sunlight. – Season: April-October, peak in June-August. Fine Particles (PM 2.5 ) – since 2003 – Many sources, primarily products of combustion, many formation mechanisms. – Year round pollutant, peaks in summer season (sulfate) with a secondary peak in deep winter.

3. Why Do We Forecast? O 3 – At high concentrations, causes “sunburn” to lungs – Most affected: Children: They process a lot of air, affect growth of lungs and therefore has lifelong impact on lung capacity. Elderly and anyone with a compromised respiratory system. Ozone amplifies response to other allergens. PM 2.5 – Reduces lung function similar to O 3 but particles can also cross the boundary from the lungs into the bloodstream and cause cardio-pulmonary problems.

4. Who Uses Our Forecasts? Forecasts are directed to two purposes: – Protect public health Issue watches and warnings well in advance so citizens can plan their activities. – Reduce emissions of O 3 and PM 2.5 “precursors”: “Air Quality Action Day” Voluntary program of large employers to reduce emissions across the region on forecast bad air days. The lag time required between warnings and action is why forecasts are issued ~ 2-3 pm daily and valid the following day (12-36 h forecast).

5. Where Do We Forecast? O 3 monitors shown in black triangles. PM 2.5 monitors generally in same locations but about half the density.

6. Air Quality Alerts Beginning last summer, Air Quality Alerts were posted to the NWS forecast page. The Philadelphia metropolitan area, as far as the EPA is concerned, includes portions of three states. This poses a challenge for forecast coordination as the states are ultimately responsible for meeting clean air standards. Warning are coordinated between neighboring states (PA, NJ, DE).

7. What Are the Forecast Metrics (Official)? Units of Measure – O 3 : parts per billion by volume (ppbv) – PM 2.5 : micrograms per cubic meter (µgm -3 ) Warning Criteria – Pegged to National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), standard re-evaluated every 5 years. – O 3 : 8-hour running average ≥ 76 ppbv. Currently under review. – PM 2.5 : 24-hour (midnight-midnight) average ≥ 35 µgm -3.

8. How Are Metrics Reported to Public? Air Quality Index (AQI) – Dimensionless parameter where > 100 is the Warning Criteria level. – AQI for any given day is the highest of either O 3 or PM 2.5 AQI. Color Codes – Green (“Good”, 0-50 AQI), Yellow (“Moderate”, 51-100 AQI) – Orange (“Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups”, 101-150 AQI), similar to Watch. Air Quality Alert issued. – Red (“Unhealthy”, > 151 AQI), similar to Warning.

9. Climatology of Color Codes for O 3 in PHL: Summer Season (JJA) Ozone climatology (?) is never static. For example, significant regional scale controls of power plant NO x emissions were introduced In the 2002-2003 time period. As result, we have observed a “step down” in O 3 to cleaner levels since 2003.

10. Changes in O 3 Climatology: Frequency of Severe O 3 Cases in PHL 2009 is not blank, there just weren’t any Code Red cases! Code Red

11. Climatology of Color Codes for O 3 in PHL Year to year variations in O 3 respond to weather and non-weather factors. For example, 2009 was cool and wet, but the recession further reduced O 3 precursor emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x.

12. PHL PM 2.5 Concentrations Remarkably Low in 2009: Function of Lower Energy Usage Note: Data for 2004-2008 uses gravimetric filter monitors (FRM) while 2009 uses 24-average from continuous monitors.

13. What Are Our Forecast Tools? Persistence – Both O 3 and PM 2.5, and some of their precursors, have long lifetimes in the troposphere (on order of days to week) – As a result, local air quality is a combination of local and transported pollutants. – What is the direction of transport and the concentrations of pollutants being transported? Weather Parameters – O 3 is associated with high temperature, few clouds. – PM 2.5 has many sources and formation routes, therefore, no simple weather associations. In summer, humidity increases sulfate load.

14. What Are Our Forecast Tools? Statistical Models – Useful for O 3, cost-effective though limited because need long training period. – Not useful for PM 2.5. Numerical Models – NOAA-EPA Operational O 3 model in use since 2005 (http://weather.gov.aq). Several other models, see Appendix A.http://weather.gov.aq – PM 2.5 model in developmental stage at NOAA. Other PM 2.5 models are available but skill limited.

15. What is Our Forecast Skill? For O 3 : – Median Absolute Error: 6.2 ppbv, or ± 10% – Bias: +1.7 ppbv For PM 2.5 : – Median Absolute Error: Summer Season: 4.0 µgm -3, or ± 20% Overall: 3.5 µgm -3 – Bias Summer Season: + 0.4 µgm -3 Overall: : + 0.4 µgm -3

16. Forecast Skill for Air Quality Alerts (May-September, 2004-2009) Standard Measures – Hit Rate: 74% – False Alarm: 31% – Accuracy: 87% Skill Measures: – Threat Score: 0.56, Range: [0,1] – Heidke Score: 0.63, Range: [-1,1] Skill Score with Reference to Persistence: – Improvements of 40-53% depending on measures selected for comparison.

17. Forecast Skill for Air Quality Alerts (May-September, 2004-2009) Forecast skill primarily driven by good O 3 forecasts. PM 2.5 forecasts are less skillful: – Hit Rate for PM 2.5 is only 43%, but 82% of the “missed” PM 2.5 cases were covered by an Air Quality Alert for O 3 already in place. – Frequency of Code Orange PM 2.5 cases in warm season is 2.3 times less than Code Orange O 3. – Worth noting: Most bad PM 2.5 days are also bad O 3 days (84%), but bad O 3 days are not usually bad PM 2.5 days (23%).

18. What Does a Poor Air Quality Day Look Like? O 3 – Full sun, long day length (high SZA) – Light winds, transport aloft (0.5-2 km) from west; pollutant concentrations in the residual layer is critical – Limited vertical mixing PM 2.5 – Light winds – Transport aloft from west – Strong morning inversion and limited mixing later – High humidity

19. H H Poor air quality events are linked to the synoptic cycle. The majority of bad air days occur in multi-day episodes (2-5 days). In the standard summer season pollution episode, an upper air ridge, with its axis over or west of the mid-Atlantic, is in place. A cold front passes bringing clean air, then, as surface high pressure migrates slowly from the Midwest, it becomes modified (dirty).

20. H H Eventually the continental high pressure center stalls and links up with the semi- permanent Bermuda High circulation. This is a common summer season PM 2.5 and O 3 episode pattern. High pressure overhead leads to clear skies, and light winds. This is not, by itself, enough to lead to a bad air day. Hot weather and light winds are necessary, but not sufficient, for poor air quality.

21. Example: Surface Analysis During a Poor Air Quality Event An Appalachian Lee Trough is commonly associated with poor air quality cases.

22. Other Necessary Ingredients In addition to sunny skies and light winds, need: – Limited Vertical Mixing Some kind of trapping inversion. In the summer season, surface-based inversions break early in the day. A secondary inversion aloft (950-850 mb) or strong warm air advection is often necessary. – Transport of Pollutants into Region The Ohio River Valley is the largest source of power plant emissions of NO x (for O 3 ) and sulfate (for PM 2.5 ).

23. Westerly Winds in Residual Layer Bring Pollutants to Our Forecast Area Vector averaged winds at 850 mb during an unhealthy O 3 episode in 1997. Midwest and Ohio River Valley are source of high emissions of oxides of nitrogen (forms O 3 and PM 2.5 ) and sulfates (forms PM 2.5 ). Emissions controls enacted in 2003 in that region have reduced O 3 significantly. Average 850 mb Winds July 12-17, 1997

24. Back Trajectory Forecast Models Help Identify Source Regions for Tomorrow’s Air Quality HYSPLIT Back Trajectory Colored lines show the forecast path of air parcels reaching PHL at 1200 UTC on July 16 at three levels above the ground (500, 1000, 1500 m). The path is 24 hours in duration with dots giving position at 6 hour intervals. The bottom panel shows the forecast vertical motion of the parcels. Trajectories are coupled with real time AQ data to estimate upwind contribution to tomorrow’s air quality. NOAA ARL HYSPLIT Model http://www.air.noaa.gov/ready

25. When Good Forecasts Go Bad Convection – Local Convection: Timing is critical for O 3. Convection after ~ 6 pm is usually too late to clean the air. – “Near-Local” Convection: Downdrafts within outflow boundaries contain very clean air. – Regional Convection: Reduces transported pollutants and increases high clouds; e.g., evening/overnight MCS upwind. Stalled/Reversing Frontal Boundaries Sea/Bay Breeze Re-circulations

26. The effect of thunderstorms on local O 3 can be remarkable even at its periphery. Effect of Outflow Boundaries on O 3 Fair Hill, MD GOES Visible 1902 UTC June 26, 1998 Hourly Ozone Concentrations Fair Hill, MD June 25-26, 1998

27. Regional Scale Convection and Local O 3 August 5 th was forecast to be sunny and very warm - conducive to O 3 formation. Back trajectories are from climatologically “dirty” location. But, early afternoon O 3 concentrations on August 4th along the path of trajectory are clean! O 3 Concentrations, 2 pm, August 4 24-h back trajectories at 500, 1000 and 1500 m Aug 5 Aug 4

28. Low Upwind O 3 Concentrations Due to Organized Thunderstorm System (MCS) on August 4 Result: While O 3 was high in PHL the following day, no locations reached the 8-hour average Code Orange threshold. GOES IR4 1515 UTC, August 4 MCS moved through OH on the morning of the previous day

29. Summary (1 of 2) Air quality forecasts (O 3 and PM 2.5 ) are issued daily for the Philadelphia metropolitan area, and surrounding states. Forecasts are issued ~ 2pm in a color code format with Alerts issued for Code Orange or higher. The peak season for poor air quality is June- August although PM 2.5 can reach Code Orange levels year round.

30. Summary (2 of 2) Poor air quality typically occurs in multi-day episodes linked to the synoptic cycle. Warm temperatures, light winds, sunny skies, limited vertical mixing, with westerly winds in the residual layer, are associated with poor air quality episodes. Forecasts are reasonably accurate but become more uncertain in the presence of convection (local and regional) as well as stalled frontal boundaries and sea breeze fronts.

31. Acknowledgements Air quality forecasting in the Philadelphia area is funded by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) in association with the states of Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey. Special thanks to Sean Greene of DVRPC as well as my forecasting colleagues in the mid- Atlantic region.

32. Appendix A: Useful Web Sites Current Conditions – EPA AirNow EPA AirNow Forecast Models – NOAA-EPA O 3 Model NOAA-EPA O 3 Model – NC DENR Model (off line at this time, back in May?) NC DENR Model – Environment Canada Environment Canada Forecasts and Blogs – Philadelphia Metropolitan Area Air Quality Forecast Philadelphia Metropolitan Area Air Quality Forecast – Mid-Atlantic Medium Range Air Quality Outlook Mid-Atlantic Medium Range Air Quality Outlook – The Smog Blog The Smog Blog – Twitter: @aqforecast Twitter