1. White Paper: Comprehensive GOES-R Wildfire Outlooks John Knaff

2. The Pieces FIRE DynamicsWeather/Climate Conditions Wind Relative Humidity Temperatures Duration Vertical Profiles/Soundings

3. The Pieces FIRE DynamicsWeather/Climate Conditions SPC takes Fire Dynamics and applies weather/climate conditions. – Dry thunderstorms and lighting a great concern USFS has a point tool based on the NDFD and produces 7-day forecasts based on that information. USFS (www.wfas.net) – Fuel Type – Fuel Conditions – Lightning efficiency – Haines (1988) index Vegetation Health (Greenness and Temperature)information from AVHRR/GOES-R

4. FUEL Fuel TypesNational Land Cover Database

5. Fire Probability USFSUSGS

6. Fire Probability NESDISSPC

7. Other Factors Lightning ignitionStatic Stability

8. Where We May Contribute (1) GOES-R/AVHRR Vegetation Health GLM (proxy lightning)

9. Where We May Contribute (2) Model Fields/ Synthetic Imagery Where/When convection occurs in the model Wind, Temperature, RH forecasts Conditional forecast products – Dry thunderstorm potential – Lightning – Down draft – Fire laydown/takeoff timing Satellite/lightning Early detection – Lightning strikes – Hot spots – smoke Resource Deployment – Manpower deployment/management – Aircraft planning Evacuations

10. Proposal Creation of a Comprehensive Colorado Wildfire Outlook Combine – Fuel type – Fuel vegetation health conditions (GOES-R/AVHRR) Greenness Hotness – Lightning ignition potential – Meteorological conditions (Model) Wind RH Stability – Lightning Occurrence/Convective Forecasts Produce – Weekly resource guidance (reduced allocation, normal allocation, increased allocation) where to put resources in the coming week – 0-48 hour outlook for new wildfire starts (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – New wildfire nowcast (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – places to monitor for new starts – Fire growth danger – if a fire develops how rapidly could it grow