1. Macroeconomic Environment and Policies After Crisis In Armenia Ministry of Finance Deputy Minister Vardan Aramyan October 6, 2011

2.  Recent Macro Developments  Macro Policies Responses to Shocks Fiscal Policy Response Monetary Policy Response  Challenges Ahead  Government Future Policy Dimensions Content

3. Main macro indicators of Armenia economy Supply shock

4. GDP Branches Real Growth Rates

5. External Sector: Export and Import growth rates (by BOP Data)

6. Monetary Sector: Credit and Deposits growth Dollarization

7. Macro Policies And Their Responses to Shocks

8. Fiscal Policy Effects On Economy: expansionary: for economic recovery tightening: to mitigate inflation pressures

9. Monetary policy response to shocks Response to economic crisis Response to inflation

10. Fiscal Consolidation and Current Account Adjustment

11. Public Debt

12. Government External Debt (including and excluding subloans)

13. baseline most extreme (30% nominal depreciation) historical threshold External Debt Sustainability Indicators

14. Fiscal sustainability indicators Public sector debt burden and liquidity indicators under baseline and alternative scenarios

15. The Risks Of Global Economy for Armenia  European 5 countries Fiscal Debt and a Need for Fiscal Consolidation – where is the balance between speed of fiscal adjustment and not impeding economic recovery.  US and Japan’s over expansionary fiscal stances, debt and need of adjustment-remedies in a short run v.s. need for surgery in the long run  European Banking Sector problems due to the Greek and Italians bonds, collapse in euro zone trading activity and ever steeper funding costs - banks capitalization v.s. Sovereign bail-outs  Greece default probability increase- spillover effect over the World markets..

16. 1.Continuing to perform well coordinated and Counter Cyclical Monetary and Fiscal Policies, aimed at ensuring Macro stability as a main basis for sustainable economic growth 2.Targeting to diversify economic structure is of high priority in government Policy agenda-increasing the resilience of Economy to negative external shocks 3.Continuing implementing policies of supporting productive and export oriented industries- targeting long term competitiveness 4.Pushing multi pillar Pension Reform, and in the long term avoiding of PAYG system overburdening risk over Government Finance. 5.Improving Business environment 10/13/2015Government of RA16 Future Policy Dimensions

17. THANK YOU 10/13/2015Government of RA17