1. Demographic Trends: A brief overview

2. 2 1991 2006 2021 FemalesMales Province Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded The demographic challenge

3. 3 1991 Province excl. CMA 2006 2021 FemalesMales Province Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded MalesFemales The demographic challenge

4. 4 1991 Communities 5,000+ people * 2006 FemalesMales Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006 MalesFemales Province * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.

5. 5 1991 Communities 2,500-4,999 people * 2006 FemalesMalesMalesFemales Province Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006 * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.

6. 6 1991 Communities 1,000-2,499 people * 2006 FemalesMalesMalesFemales Province Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006 * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included.

7. 7 1991 Communities < 1,000 people * 2006 FemalesMalesMalesFemales Province * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included. Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006

8. Key Demographic Change: Declining School Enrolment 1986 139,378 2007 74,304 1992 121,772 Source: Community Accounts 2021 55,500 Enrolment projections estimated by Rural Secretariat based on historical trends

9. Key Demographic Change: Declining Youth (Ages 15-29) 1986 161,900 1992 152,200 2007 94,600 2021 68,900 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

10. Key Demographic Change: Declining Child Bearing Age Population (Ages 15-49) 1986 314,500 2007 245,500 2021 183,600 1992 329,000 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

11. Key Demographic Change: Declining Labour Supply (Ages 15-64) 1986 378,800 2007 359,800 2021 305,200 1992 397,600 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

12. Key Demographic Change: More Seniors 1986 50,300 1992 56,700 2007 70,600 2021 118,000 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

13. Challenges and Opportunities Fewer children –School closures or opportunity to re-think how we provide education services? Fewer workers –Labour shortages or job opportunities for younger workers? More seniors –More demand for government services or new business opportunities? Changes at community level –Fewer leaders and volunteers (e.g., town councils, fire protection) or opportunity for communities to share more services?

14. 14 Rural Secretariat’s Citizen and Community Engagement Rural Secretariat is engaging broad range of citizens Municipal leaders, youth, community groups, business owners, seniors, etc. Objectives – build capacity and transfer knowledge Focus on long term planning, not short term reactions Common themes and findings Youth have strong views – less caught up in the “way it was” Broad understanding of the need for change Discussions are based on possibility – not complaints

15. Rural Secretariat Executive Council Tel: (709) 729-0168 Fax: (709)729-1673 E-mail: ruralinfo@gov.nl.caruralinfo@gov.nl.ca www.gov.nl.ca/rural