1. Right to Work and the Michigan Economy Presented to: Mid-Michigan LERA October 8, 2013 Charles L. Ballard Department of Economics Michigan State University East Lansing, MI ballard@msu.edu

2. First, some facts about the percentage of workers who are union members in the United States (data for 2011):

3. % of Private% of Public % of Total State Rank EmployeesEmployees Employees New York 1 13.572.2 24.1 Alaska 211.053.2 22.1 Hawaii 314.150.7 21.5 Washington411.152.4 18.9 Michigan 5 11.9 52.0 17.5 California 7 9.056.9 17.1 Illinois 1010.652.0 16.2 Ohio 17 8.642.6 13.4 Indiana 23 8.928.3 11.2 Florida 37 2.826.4 6.3 Texas 41 3.017.1 5.2 Mississippi 44 3.410.4 5.0 N. Carolina 51 1.6 9.1 2.9

4. Across the country, the rates of unionization have fallen over the years.

5. Percent of Workers Who Are Union Members, for Selected States, 1964 and 2011 19642011 Change New York35.5 24.1-11.4 Alaska 39.722.1-17.6 Washington 44.518.9-25.6 Michigan 44.8 17.5 -27.3 California33.017.1-15.9 Illinois 35.616.2-19.4 Ohio 37.613.4-24.2 United States 29.3 11.9 -17.4 Indiana40.911.2-29.7 Florida14.0 6.3- 7.7 Texas13.5 5.2- 8.3 N. Carolina 8.4 2.9- 5.5

7. In Michigan, as in many other parts of the country, the union losses of recent decades have been relatively larger in the private sector.

8. Union Members as Percent of Workers in Michigan, 1983 and 2011 19832011Change Private Sector25.311.9 - 13.4 Manufacturing46.220.1 - 26.1 Public Sector56.852.0 - 4.8

9. Manufacturing’s Share of the Economy Has Shrunk Dramatically

11. Tax Effort Has Reduced Substantially

12. My Assessment: Right to Work is unlikely to make much difference. For better or worse, the strength of labor unions has already diminished greatly.

13. What Does the Michigan Public Think? State of the State Survey Round 64 1,013 Interviews Completed January 14, 2013 – March 4, 2013

14. 42.7% of Michigan Residents Said They Believe the Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy. 41% Said It Will Hurt. That’s a Statistical Tie.

17. Views of Michigan Residents by Race and Sex State of Michigan MenWomenWhitesBlacks Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy 42.7%49.6%36.1%45.4%24.9%

18. Views of Michigan Residents by Political Party State of Michigan RepublicanIndependentDemocrat Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy 42.7%74.2%42.3%24.8%

19. Views of Michigan Residents by Support for Gov. Snyder State of Michigan Snyder “Excellent” Snyder “Good” Snyder “Fair” Snyder “Poor” Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy 42.7%74.0%64.2%41.7%18.2%

20. Views of Michigan Residents by Ideology State of Michigan Very Liberal ModerateConservative Very Conservative Right-to-Work Law Will Help The Economy 42.7%10.9%20.9%42.3%57.8% 62.6%

21. Advocates of right-to-work laws say they will bring prosperity. At best, the evidence for this is mixed.

22. Per-Capita Personal Income, 2011: Right-to-Work States:$38,046 Non-RTW States:$44,515

24. Many of the states with the highest incomes have high levels of educational attainment.

27. This slide is brought to you by the letter “M”: EducationIncome StateRank 2010Rank 2010 Massachusetts 1 2 Minnesota1010 Michigan 3439 Mississippi 4950

28. Income inequality in the United States has increased to levels not seen since 100 years ago. This is because: 1.The supply of highly skilled workers has increased less than the demand. 2.Deregulation of financial services. 3. Weaker labor unions. 4. Less progressive taxation.

30. Michigan, My Michigan A song to thee, fair State of mine, Michigan, my Michigan. But greater song than this is thine, Michigan, my Michigan. The whisper of the forest tree, The thunder of the inland sea, Unite in one grand symphony OfMichigan, my Michigan.