1. 1 Chapter 17 Federal Deficits, Surpluses, and the National Debt Key Concepts Key Concepts Summary Practice Quiz ©2004 Thomson/South-Western

2. 2 What is the purpose of this chapter? To take a closer look at the actual budgetary process that creates and finances our national debt

3. 3 What are the four stages of the budget process? Formation of the budget Presidential budget submission First budget resolution Budget passed

4. 4 What is the federal fiscal year? October 1 through September 30

5. 5 What is the federal deficit? How much money the government borrows in any given fiscal year

6. 6 What is the national debt? The total amount owed by the federal government to owners of government securities

7. 7 How does the U.S. Treasury borrow money? By selling Treasury bills, notes, and bonds, promising to make specified interest payments and to repay the loaned funds on a given date

8. 8 $800 Federal Expenditures and Tax Revenues Billions of dollars $1000 $2,200 $1200 $1400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Expenditures Revenues 65 7075 80 85 90 95 0005 Year

9. 9 17 Year Percentage of GDP 18 24 19 20 21 22 23 198519901995 00 Federal Expenditures, Revenues, and Deficits as a Percentage of GDP Federal Deficit Federal Surplus

10. 10 What is a debt ceiling? The legislated legal limit on the national debt

11. 11 What usually happens when the debt pushes against the ceiling? Congress raises the ceiling to accommodate the budget deficit

12. 12 0540506070 8090 Year $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 National debt The National Debt 00 Trillions of dollars

13. 13 05 Year 20 40 60 80 100 National debt/GDP 120 140 150 Percentage of GDP The National Debt as a Percentage of GDP 40 50 6070809000

14. 14 What is the internal national debt? The portion of the national debt owed to a nation’s own citizens

15. 15 What is the external national debt? The portion of the national debt owed to foreign citizens

16. 16 05 50 60 70809000.05% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Federal Net Interest as a Percentage of GDP Year Percentage of GDP

17. 17

18. 18 What is the crowding-out effect? When federal government borrowing increases interest rates, the result is lower consumption and investments

19. 19 Can the government go bankrupt? Yes, it’s possible No, the debt need never be paid off

20. 20 Are we passing the debt burden to our children? Yes, especially if it continues to increase No, not as long as the debt is internally owned

21. 21 Does government borrowing crowd out private-sector spending? Yes, the more the government borrows the less loanable funds for everyone else No, especially if it occurs during economic downturns

22. 22 200 150 50 2468 AD 1 AS AD` 2 100 12 AD 2 E2E2 E1E1 E` 2 Full employment Complete (AD 1 ), Partial (AD` 2 ), and Zero (AD 2 ) Crowding Out

23. 23 Key Concepts

24. 24 Key Concepts What is the federal deficit? What is the national debt? How does the U.S. Treasury borrow money? What has been done to curb the national debt? What is a debt ceiling? What is the internal national debt? What is the external national debt? What is the crowding-out effect? Can the government go bankrupt? Are we passing the debt burden to our children? Does government borrowing crowd out private- sector spending?Does government borrowing crowd out private- sector spending?

25. 25 Summary

26. 26 The national debt is the dollar amount that the federal government owes holders of government securities. It is the cumulative sum of past deficits.

27. 27 The U.S. Treasury issues government securities to finance the deficits. The debt has more than tripled since 1980. The debt ceiling is a method to restrict the national debt.

28. 28 0540506070 8090 Year $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 National debt The National Debt 00 Trillions of dollars

29. 29 Internal national debt is the percentage of the national debt a nation owes to its own citizens.

30. 30 External debt is a burden because it is the portion of the national debt a nation owes to foreigners.

31. 31

32. 32 The crowding-out effect is a burden of the national debt that occurs when the government borrows to finance its deficit, causing the interest rate to rise. As the interest rate rises, consumption and business investment fall.

33. 33 Can Uncle Sam go bankrupt? The U.S. government will not go bankrupt because it never has to pay off its debt. When government securities mature, the U.S. Treasury can refinance or roll over the debt by issuing new securities.

34. 34 Are we passing the debt burden to our children? There are two differing opinions on this question.

35. 35 Are we passing the debt burden to our children? No One side of this argument is that the debt is mostly internal, so financing a deficit only involves exchanging old bonds for new bonds among U.S. citizens.

36. 36 Are we passing the debt burden to our children? Yes The sizeable external debt transfers purchasing power to foreigners.

37. 37 Does government borrowing crowd out private sector spending? Keynesian theory assumes zero crowding out when the federal government increases spending in order to shift the aggregate demand curve rightward.

38. 38 END