1. Miller – Living in the Environment 13 th Ed. 12 The Human Population: Growth, Demography, and Carrying Capacity

2. Factors Affecting Human Population Size BirthsBirths DeathsDeaths MigrationMigration EmigrationEmigration Population Change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)

3. Crude Birth Rate (CBR) –number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year Crude Death Rate (CDR) –Number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year

4. Crude birth rate CBR Crude death rate CDR World All developed countries All developing countries Developingcountries (w/o China) 21 9 11 10 24 8 29 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

5. AfricaLatinAmerica Asia Oceania UnitedStates NorthAmerica Europe 38 14 23 6 20 7 18 7 15 9 14 9 10 11 CBR CDR

6. Rate of the World’s Annual Population Change Annual rate of natural population = change (%) Birth rate – Death rate 1000 X 100 Birth rate – Death rate 10 = Annual rate of natural population = change (%)

7. Given the following data: Crude birth rate = 23 per thousand Crude death rate = 9 per thousand The Natural Increase Rate is. A.1.4 B.14 C.1.4/1000 D.Impossible to calculate from these data alone

8. <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world population growth Average annual rate of population change in 2002 was 1.28% compared to 2.2% in 1963.

9. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 0 2 4 6 8 10 Growth rate (percent) Population in billions Year Less developed countries More developed countries Growth rate

10. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia Bangladesh Japan Nigeria 2002 2025 1.28 billion 1.5 billion 1 billion 1.4 billion 288 million 346 million 217 million 282 million 174 million 219 million 144 million 242 million 144 million 129 million 134 million 178 million 127 million 121 million 130 million 205 million The worlds 10 most populous countries (2002) 37% 4.6%

11. CHINA INDIA BANGLADESH THAILAND INDONESIA JAPAN PACIFIC OCEAN PHILIPPINES NEW GUINEA BORNEO INDIAN OCEAN SRI LANKA NEPAL PAKISTAN Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Tibet Delhi CalcuttaBhopal Bombay State of Kerala Bangkok Where are they?

12. Asia Europe Africa Latin America North America Oceania 3.8 billion 4.7 billion 728 million 718 million 840 million 1.3 billion 531 million 697 million 319 million 382 million 32 million 40 million 20022025 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Population projections by region (2002-2025)

13. Global Fertility Rates Replacement level fertilityReplacement level fertility –the number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves –2.1 developed 2.5 undeveloped Total fertility rate (TFR)Total fertility rate (TFR) –Estimate of the average number children a woman will have during her childbearing years Total fertility rate (TFR)Total fertility rate (TFR) –Estimate of the average number children a woman will have during her childbearing years Actual number of offspring produced through sexual reproduction

14. World Developed countries Developing countries Africa Latin America Asia Oceania North America Europe 5 children per women 2.8 2.5 1.6 6.5 3.1 6.6 5.2 5.9 2.7 5.9 2.6 3.8 2.5 3.5 2.1 2.6 1.4 1950 2002 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning There has been a decline in total fertility rates.

15. Births per woman < 2 2-2.9 3-3.9 4-4.9 5+ Data not available Total Fertility Rates in 2002

16. High Medium Low 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 High 10.9 Medium 9.3 Low 7.3 Year Population (billions) Population Projections

17. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year Births per woman Baby boom (1946-64) Total fertility rates for the US Replacement level

18. 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 0 Births per thousand population 19101920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year demographictransition Depression End of World War II baby boom Baby bust echo baby boom Birth rates in the U.S.

19. 600 500 400 300 200 100 190019201940196019802000202020402060 2080 2100 76 273 571 Total population Projections Year Population in millions US Population Growth

20. 40 35 20 10 0 1890s1910s1930s1950s 1970s 1990s2010s2030s2050s2070s2090s 13 27 37 Year Population in millions 5 15 30 25 14 9 28 23 25 26 28 34 Persons added in selected decades (millions) US Population Growth

21. United StatesMexicoCanada Population (2002) Projected population (2025) 346 million Infant mortality rate Life expectancy Total fertility rate (TFR) % population under age 15 % population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP 288 million 102 million 31 million 132 million 36 million 6.6 25 5.3 2.1 2.9 1.5 21% 33% 19% 13% 5% $8,790 77 years 75 years 79 years $34,110 $27,170 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Comparison of basic demographic data

22. Key factors affecting a country’s average birth rate and TFR Importance of children as a part of the labor force.Importance of children as a part of the labor force. UrbanizationUrbanization Cost of raising and educating childrenCost of raising and educating children Educational and employment opportunitiesEducational and employment opportunities Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate Average age of marriageAverage age of marriage Availability of private and public pension systemAvailability of private and public pension system Availability of legal abortionsAvailability of legal abortions Availability of reliable birth control methodsAvailability of reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms.Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms.

23. Importance of Death Rates People started living longer. People started living longer. 1)Increased food supplies 2)Better nutrition 3)Improvements in medical and public health technology 4)Improved sanitation 5)Safer water supplies

24. Developed Countries 50 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 185019001950 2000 2050 Rate per 1,000 people Year Rate of natural increase Crude birth rate Crude death rate Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

25. Developing Countries 50 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 185019001950 2000 2050 Rate per 1,000 people Crude birth rate Rate of natural increase Crude death rate Year © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate

26. Useful indicators of health Life expectancyLife expectancy –Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate –The number of babies out of every 1000 born who die before their first birthday

27. Global life expectancy Good newsGood news –Increased from 48 to 67 years in developing countries from 1955 to 2002 –Increased from 48 to 76 years in developed countries during same period Bad newsBad news –Life expectancy in poorest countries is 55 years or less

28. Because it reflects the general level of nutrition and health care, infant mortality probably is the single most important measure of a societies quality of life.Because it reflects the general level of nutrition and health care, infant mortality probably is the single most important measure of a societies quality of life.

29. <10 10-35 36-70 100+ Data not available Infant deaths per 1,000 live births 71-100 Infant Mortality Rates in 2002

32. Population age structure Age structureAge structure –the proportion of the population (or of each gender) at each age level Age categoriesAge categories –Pre-reproduction Ages 0-14Ages 0-14 –Reproduction Ages 15- 44Ages 15- 44 –Post-reproduction Ages 45 and upAges 45 and up Age categoriesAge categories –Pre-reproduction Ages 0-14Ages 0-14 –Reproduction Ages 15- 44Ages 15- 44 –Post-reproduction Ages 45 and upAges 45 and up

33. Age Structure Describes how a population’s members are distributed across age ranges Usually 5-yr excrements Age structure diagram = visual representation of age structure for males and females Used to predict how rapidly a population will increase and what its size will be in the future

34. Shaped like a cupcake Typical of developing countries, such as Venezuela and India Wide base indicates that the population will grow because a large # of females from 0-15 have yet to bear children.

35. Column-shaped Few individuals in younger age classes Ex: US, Canada, Australia, Sweden

36. MaleFemale Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada MaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages 45-85+ © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

37. Inverted pyramid Greater number of older people TFR of below 2.1 Ex: Italy, Germany, Russia

38. Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden MaleFemaleMaleFemale Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

39. Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+ Rapid Growth GuatemalaNigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States AustraliaCanada MaleFemale Zero Growth SpainAustriaGreece Negative Growth GermanyBulgariaSweden Population Age Structure

40. 3002001000100200300 85+80-8575-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-145-90-4 MaleFemale Population (millions) Age Developed Countries © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

41. 3002001000 200300 85+ 80-85 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 MaleFemale Population (millions) Age Developing Countries © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

42. Population (2002) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate Life expectancy Fertility rate (TFR) %Population under age 15 % Population over age 65 Per capita GNI PPP (2000) 288 million 174 million 130 million 346 million 219 million 205 million 6.8 33 75 77 years 69 years 52 years 2.1 2.2 5.8 21% 33% 44% 13% 5% 3% $34,100 $7,300 $800 United States (highly developed) Brazil (moderately developed) Nigeria (less developed) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

44. There are 6.9 billion people. How much is a billion? –If you were 1 billion seconds old, you’d be 31.7 years of age –You’d have to circle the earth 40,000 times to travel 1 billion miles –There are 44 million words in the Encyclopedia Britannica. You would need more than 136 full sets of the Encyclopedia to get 6 billion words

45. MigrationMigration Most countries restrict immigrationMost countries restrict immigration Accounts for <1 percent in developing countriesAccounts for <1 percent in developing countries Canada, Australia, and U.S. are exceptionsCanada, Australia, and U.S. are exceptions –Immigration accounted for 40% of population growth in US in 2000 –Public strongly supports reducing immigration levels –Pros and cons to reducing legal immigration

46. 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 18201840188018601900192019401960198020002010 Year Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 1907 1914 New laws restrict immigration Great Depression Legal immigration into the U.S. Europe Latin America and Asia

47. Death rates have decreased in developed countries Improving nutrition and living standards (not modern medicine) As population gets older, the cause of death transitions from infectious diseases to chronic diseases such as heart attack and stroke Japan!

48. Less developed countries have significantly younger populations (high birth rates) Improvements in infant mortality. Contributes to population momentum Teen childbearing: linked to education, age of marriage, and economic status

49. Moving to cities where it is more economically secure Half of the world is urbanized World’s largest cities are getting larger –1960: London, Tokyo, New York –1995: Tokyo, Sao Paolo (Brazil), Mexico City –2015: Lagos (Nigeria), Bombay (India), Tokyo

50. Family Planning Programs which provide educational and clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have and when. –Birth spacing –Birth control –Health care

51. Condom 5% Female sterilization 17% IUD 12% Other methods 10% Pill 8% Male sterilization 5% No method 43% Estimated global use of contraceptives

52. Life expectancy , Jobs , Literacy rates , enrollment in secondary school  Women are the key to the family! “Reproductive revolution” –Family planning! –Saves lives of mothers and children Work –Less official jobs (more work @ home) –Get paid ¾ of male salary Connected to family India!

53. 4:45 A.M. Wake, wash, and eat 5:00 A.M.- 5:30 A.M. Walk to fields 3:00 P.M.- 4:00 P.M. Collect firewood 4:00 P.M.- 5:30 P.M. Pound and grind corn 5:30 P.M.- 3:00 P.M. Work in fields 5:30 P.M.- 6:30 P.M. Collect water 6:30 P.M.- 8:30 P.M. Cook for family and eat 8:30 P.M.- 9:30 P.M. Wash dishes and children 9:30 P.M. Go to bed Typical workday for a woman in Africa

54. Demographic Transition 1. Preindustrial stage: tough life. high birth rate, high death rate

55. Demographic Transition 2. Transitional stage: industrialization begins, food production rises, health care improves, death rate drops but birth rates stay high

56. Demographic Transition 3. Industrial stage: birth rate drops & starts to match death rates. Pop growth depends on economics. (most developed countries are here)

57. Demographic Transition 4. Postindustrial stage: birth rate = death rate (zpg). 38 countries, most in Europe about 13% of the world’s pop in this stage

58. BIRTH RATES Birth Rates Go Up when…  Children in workforce  Availability of roofies.  Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms Birth Rates Go Down when…  Urbanization  Cost of raising & educating kids  Educational and employment opportunities for women  Infant mortality rate  Avg age of marriage  Availability of pension  Availability of legal abortions  Availability of reliable birth control methods  Syphilis rates are high

59. Death Rates Decreased death rate: –Increased food supplies & distribution –Better nutrition –Improvements in medical & public health technology (immunizations & antibiotics) –Improved sanitation & personal hygiene –Safer water supplies (less infectious diseases) Healthy country: –Life expectancy =  –Infant mortality rate = 

60. SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA AND CHINA For more than five decades, India has tried to control its population growth with only modest success. Since 1970, China has used a government-enforced program to cut its birth rate in half and sharply reduce its fertility rate.

61. Percentage of world population Population (2000) Population (2025) (estimated) Illiteracy (%of adults) Population under age 15(%) Population growth rate (%) Total fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy GNP per capita (1998) 16% 21% 1 billion 1.3 billion 1.4 billion 47% 17% 36% 25% 1.8% 0.9% 3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) 72 31 61 years 71 years $440 $750 India China

62. India’s Failed Family Planning Program Poor planning. Bureaucratic inefficiency. Low status of women. Extreme poverty. Lack of administrative financial support. Disagreement over the best ways to slow population growth.

63. China’s Family Planning Program Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children per women. China has moved 300 million people out of poverty. Problems: –Strong male preference leads to gender imbalance. –Average population age is increasing. –Not enough resource to support population.

64. Water –Demand exceeds supply –Mainly used for agriculture –Water quality affects availability of safe water Forests –Valuable for indigenous cultures, ecosystem services, etc… threatened by development Energy –Developed countries use more energy (proportionally) –Need to import it!

65. Population Growth using IKEA Boxes-TED Talks Population Growth using IKEA Boxes-TED Talks