1. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. WRAP/RMC Fire Sensitivity Modeling Project Mohammad Omary, Gail Tonnesen WRAP Regional Modeling Center University of California Riverside Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting, Las Vegas, NV, December 8, 2004

2. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Project Status Today’s Presentation –Project Objectives –Sensitivity Parameters –Metrics used in Evaluation –Description of scenarios –Summary of S1 Emissions –S2 analysis results

3. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Acknowledgments Tom Moore and FEJF – project design Air Sciences - Emissions Inventory Zac Adelman UNC & Mohammad Omary UCR - Emissions Processing. Chao-Jung Chien and Mohammad Omary UCR – preparation of plots.

4. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Project Objectives Prioritize Data Collection Efforts - the Regional Haze Rule identifies many forms of data collection pertaining to fire emissions. Examples include: –Emission inventories for modeling analyses (in support of regional haze implementation plans); –Emission tracking systems for regional haze plan compliance; and –Tracking/quantifying “credit” for applications of emission reduction techniques. Prioritize Long-Term Research Needs - the FEJF has acknowledged the uncertainty and imprecision of the information and tools available to estimate fire emissions. Improve Smoke Management Decisions - States and Tribes may need to make real-time decisions with regard to issuing permits and requiring emission reduction and/or smoke management techniques.

5. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Parameters Spatial extent of the sensitivity runs – use the entire modeling domain. Depending on the nature of the runs and the protocols developed to analyze and interpret the data, smaller geographic areas of sources or a limited number of receptors in Class I areas may then become the focus of the analyses. Temporal extent of the sensitivity runs - for runs made with the 2002 wildfire inventory, limiting the model runs to a 3- or 4-month period of high wildfire incidence (June–September, for example) should be adequate. For interpreting the results from modeling runs already performed, analyzing the entire year’s of data is preferred. Emissions from Other Source Categories - for the Fire Sensitivity Runs, use a constant set of other source category emissions data. Use RMC modeling framework to determine the sensitivity of the model to changes in the physical environment, rather than to determine the best physical representation of fire.

6. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Metrics Use PAVE to analyze emission outputs (from SMOKE) and modeled extinction (from CMAQ) Metrics: –Sensitivity of the model results to proximity of fire events may lead to result of “extinction/concentration is inversely proportional to distance.” –For plume characteristics may lead to “75% of impact is due to emissions fumigated into the first vertical layer”. –Possible general rules-of-thumb could result, to describe the sensitivity of the model to changes in specific parameters. For example: “Fires less than 25 acres do not contribute significantly”, or “Fires greater than 1,000 acres in size may have a significant impact on Class I areas in a 500 km radius.” The FEJF places high importance on the development of protocols to direct the analysis and interpretation of the results of the modeling sensitivity study. These protocols will be developed as the study is being defined.

7. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Scenarios S1 – Quantify/characterize the contribution to extinction due to: –(a) all fire sources contributing in combination –(b) each type of fire source contributing individually (agricultural burning (2018 Base), prescribed burning (2002), and wildfire (2002)). Analysis should include: –Does any type of fire contribute to any of the 20% worst days; –What is the magnitude of the contribution; and –What is the relationship of the contribution to the emissions (is it mass? proximity? fire size?).

8. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Scenarios (cont) S2 – Quantify/characterize the effect of Optimal Smoke Management (OSM) on extinction levels. Compare results of existing §309 2018 OSM to 2018 Base model runs. Attempt to use model results to characterize predicted benefits to regional haze with less aggressive OSM reductions. FEJF is interested in quantifying the effect of: –(a) OSM applied to prescribed fire and agricultural burning; –(b) OSM applied to prescribed fire; and –(c) OSM applied to agricultural burning. Analyze using PAVE on a grid scale to quantify the effect on net change in emissions and net change in extinction. Analysis S2(a) is presented later in this presentation, and S2(b) and S2(c) are deferred.

9. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Scenarios (cont) S3 – Effects of small fires a. Generate new 2002 scenario. This will be the same as Pre02c except replacing the Rx and wild fires by new inputs in which some of the small size fires were zeroed. b. Do comparison analysis with scenario Pre02c. Deferred pending data availability

10. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. S4 – investigate sensitivity to mass in Layer 1. a. Generate new 2002 scenario. This will be Pre02b and the Ag fires, as Pre02b_AGF(2018) in S1(b), where the emissions in the first layer are split. The ratio 38/80 of the emissions (LAY1F) will be replaced in the first layer and the rest (42/80) will be placed in the subsequent layers. b. Do comparison analysis with scenario Pre02b+AGF(2018) (see S1(b)) Fire Sensitivity Scenarios (cont)

11. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Scenarios S5 – Quantify / characterize the contribution to extinction due to smaller fire events (between 10 acres and 100 acres). Subsets (representing only fires larger than specified size cut points) of the 2002 emission inventory (wildfire and prescribed burning) will be provided by the FEJF to the RMC. Air Sciences can provide a proposed methodology and cost estimate for preparing emission inventory at various size cut-points. –This can be accomplished easily by adding a filter to remove emissions from fire in all grid cells for which the emissions exceed a certain cut point.

12. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Fire Sensitivity Modeling Scenarios S7 – Quantify/characterize the effect on extinction levels of physical plume characteristics provided for each fire event, using the 2002 wildfire emission inventory. FEJF to provide modified plume profile data to RMC. –FEJF to provide RMC with 2018 Ag base emission inventory with emissions fumigated to the first vertical layer (LAY1F) adjusted by 38/80 to account for the RMC vs. FEJF discrepancy in the assumed height of the first vertical layer. –This can be accomplished by modifying the SMOKE fire output file to change the vertical profile. Alternatively, if a new plume rise algorithm is proposed, it would be better to run SMOKE again with the new algorithm.

13. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Summary of Cases Base Case (no fire): Pre02b Base + Ag Burning: Pre02_ag18 Base + Ag vertical sens: Pre02_agmod Base + Rx Burning Pre02_rx02 Base + Wild Fires: Pre02_wf02 Base + all fire emis: Pre02c Base + “Natural” Fires : Pre02e Base + Anthro + Natural Fires:Pre02f

14. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Presentation of Results (1) Spatial plots of fire emissions (CO and Coarse mass) Spatial plots showing effects of fires: –For each PM component: OC, EC, CM, SO4, NO3 –For beta extinction and deciviews –Monthly average and annual average calculated as the difference between sensitivity case and a base case Time-series to show effects on the 20% best and worst days (in progress): –Using stacked bar plots of PM components contribution to beta_ext

15. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Presentation of Results (2) Summary slides of results below show the maximum change in visibility over all locations – these do not necessarily reflect impacts at any particular Class I site –In most instances the effects at Class I areas will be smaller than the maximum modeled change.

16. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. July 2002 Total Fires Emissions

17. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CO Emissions (Log)

18. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CM Emissions (Log)

19. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. July 2002 CMAQ Results Total Fire Contribution to Haze Calculated as Pre02c minus Pre02b

20. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

21. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Pre02f minus Pre02b

22. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

23. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

24. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

25. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Total Fires Result Large effects from total fires: –Maxium increase of 20 deview increase –Large regions with > 4 deciview increase

26. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. 2002 Wild Fires Emissions

27. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CO Emissions (Log)

28. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. PMC Emissions (Log)

29. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. July 2002 CMAQ Results Wild Fire Contribution to Haze Calculated as Pre02b_wf02 minus Pre02b

30. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

31. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

32. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

33. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

34. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Wild Fires Result Large effects from wild fires: –Very similar to the total fire results –Maxium increase of 20 deview increase –Large regions with > 4 deciview increase

35. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. 2002 Rx Fires Emissions

36. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CO Emissions (Log)

37. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. PMC Emissions (Log)

38. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. November 2002 CMAQ Results Rx Burning Contribution to Haze Calculated as Pre02b_rx02 minus Pre02b

39. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

40. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

41. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

42. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

43. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Rx Burning Result Significant effects from Rx burning: –Maxium increase of 3 deview increase –Large areas with > 0.5 deciview increase in those states with Rx burning emissions –However, much smaller than to the wild fire effects.

44. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. 2018 Ag Fires Emissions

45. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CO Emissions (Log)

46. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. PMC Emissions (Log)

47. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. November 2002 CMAQ Results Ag Burning Contribution to Haze Calculated as Pre02b_ag18 minus Pre02b

48. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

49. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

50. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

51. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

52. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Ag Burning Result Large emissions only in CA and ND Significant effects from Ag burning: –Maximum increase in CA of 1.5 deciviews –Maximum increase in ND of 0.5 deciview

53. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. 2018 Ag Fires Emissions with the half of surface layer emissions redistributed aloft

54. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CO Emissions (ton/months)

55. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. PMC Emissions (ton/month)

56. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Ag Surface Layer 2002 CMAQ Results Effect of change in Vertical Distribution Calculated as Pre02b_agmod minus Pre02b_ag18 (Column total emissions were unchanged)

57. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

58. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

59. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

60. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

61. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Ag Vertical Sensitivity Result Redistributing vertical Ag burning emissions had small effect, <0.4 dcv –Ag burning emissions were small. –Emissions were injected with mixed layer during the daytime. We expect much larger sensitivity to Wild Fire vertical distribution.

62. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. 2002 Natural Fires Emissions

63. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CO Emissions (Log)

64. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. PMC Emissions (Log)

65. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. July 2002 CMAQ Results Effect of Natural Fire Emissions Calculated as Pre02e minus Pre02b

66. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

67. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

68. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

69. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp.

70. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Natural Fire Result Effects of Natural Fire emissions are large –Similar to wild fire emissions results

71. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Plans for time-series analysis Stacked bar-plots in Xcel for IMPROVE sites –Will compare modeled with Ambient data –See pdf file for

72. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. Conclusions Planned model simulations completed –Large contributions from natural fires and from wild fires –Significant contributions from Ag and Rx burning in those states that have an inventory –(0.5 deciview is a significant effect). Spatial plotting completed Continuing time-series and best/worst analysis.

73. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. OC/EC Ratios Ambient ratio of OC/EC might be a useful indicator of fire emissions. –High value indicates large fire OC emissions and relatively low EC from anthropogenic sources.

74. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CMAQ Ratio OC/EC July Average

75. UC Riverside FEJF Meeting, Las Vegas, NV Dec 8, 2004 UNC/CEPENVIRON Corp. CMAQ Ratio Anthro OC/EC July Average