1. Environmental Control and Economic Development Abdelhameed M El-Shaarawi National Water Research Institute and McMaster University Burlington, Ontario, Canada L7R 4A6 Abdel.El-Shaarawi@ec.gc.ca

2. 1. What is an environmental problem? Evolving issues Recognition, understanding, judging, action Measurements, mathematics and statistics If mathematics is the language of nature then statistics is its dialects 2. Classification of environmental problems Extent: Global, regional, local; duration Type: Natural or anthropogenic Effects: Lethal or chronic, significant or insignificant, social, political, ecological risks 3. Some Typical Examples Water Pollution Risks 4.Needs Collaboration among stakeholders Ecological and environmental indicators Improved predictive, tools for risk analysis Goals

3. Environment Human Economy Land, Water, Air Natural Resources Labor Force Capital Innovation ProductionConsummation WastePollution Environmental Quality Quality of Human Life Balance between Growth and Environmental Health Balance between the Present and the Future

4. Fish biomass in 1900 (t/km 2 ) Christensen et al. (Fish & Fisheries, 2003).

5. And in 2000…. Christensen et al. (Fish & Fisheries, 2003).

6. U.S. Bureau of the census, Watson and Pauly (2002) Living resources: food security

7. Sources of Pollution

8. The Hunt for Oil in Canada

9. Canada with and Without the Oil Sand Production

10. The Spatial Extent

11. The Production Process

12. Environmental Concerns

13. INTERPRETATION OF RISK TERMS  Risk: undesirable outcomes which differ from the beneficial ones  Analysis in isolation is difficult due to inextricable association with the beneficial ones.  They are not mutually exclusive!  Decision-making is based on the level of disbenefits and risk we may choose to tolerate, compared to the benefits of the outcomes.

14. PRINCIPAL CONCEPT OF RISK  encompasses a number of concepts and methods directed towards gaining qualitative and quantitative understanding of risks.  focuses on the knowledge about the nature and burden of risks involved in an activity and placing it in some framework of relationships to express its significance.  concerns with arrangements to deal with the assessed burden of risk by - eliminating causes of risk where practicable; - reducing the probability of occurrences and the magnitude of consequences; - seeking acceptable compensations and redistributions in relation to the residual risk (i.e., Don’t keep all the eggs in one basket!). RISK ASSESSMENTRISK MANAGEMENT Interactive and Complementary

15. Components of Risk Communication

16. Setting Regulations

17. Risk & Benefit (Health & Economy)

18. Objectives of Environmental Effects Monitoring Program: 1. Does effluent cause an effect in the environment? 2. Is effect persistent over time? 3. Does effect warrant correction? 4. What are the causative stressors? 5. From 1992, all new effluent regulations require sites to do EEM. 6. Pulp and Paper Pilot program

19. Field and Experimental Assessment of Risk

23. Environmental Effects Monitoring: Canadian Pulp and Paper Industry Structure Data and Objective

25. Example of data (daphnia survival and reproduction) No. of neonates produced per replicates and total female adult mortality

26. Example of reproduction data (one cycle)