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Research Methods Unit 2
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Hindsight Bias “I knew it all along phenomenon” Example: 9/11
Overconfidence along with hindsight bias Can lead to overestimate our institution
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The Scientific Attitude
Curiosity, skepticism, and humility Copernicus and Newton—religious convictions made them humble before nature and skeptical of human authority
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Critical Thinking Examines assumptions Discerns hidden values
Evaluates evidence Assesses conclusions
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The Scientific Method Theory-predicts behavior or events
At theory simplifies, organizes isolated facts Hypothesis-a good theory that produces testable predictions Operational definitions-describes concepts with precise measures Replication is key
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The Scientific Method Test by using descriptive methods, correlational methods, and experimental methods
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Operational Definition
It defines what the researcher will be observing and manipulating Need to be 1) measurable and 2) manageable If not measurable or manageable then the research will be difficult to conduct
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Description Case study Survey Naturalistic observation
Examines one individual in depth Can mislead us if individual is atypical Survey Many cases in less depth Wording effects, Random sampling Need representative sample of cases Naturalistic observation Only describes behavior does not explain it Replication is the main goal of all research
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Survey People are asked to RESPOND to a series of QUESTIONS about a particular subject Does it matter what order the questions are asked?
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Survey: Target Population
The WHOLE GROUP that you want to study EXAMPLES -US sigh school students -Westinghouse high school students -Olympic athletes -Chicago Firefighters
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Survey: Random sampling
Individuals are selected by RANDOM from the target population Methods of Selecting->>>>
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Survey: Stratified Sample
SUBGROUPS in the population are represented proportionately in the sample Other Examples: Election data Strike support
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Survey: Volunteer Bias
People who CHOOSE (volunteer) to participate in research studies often DIFFER from people who do not Examples: PETA
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Case Study An IN DEPTH investigation of an INDIVIDUAL or small group
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Case Study: Longitudinal Method
Researchers select a group of participants and then observer them OVER A LONG PERIOD Ex: Harvard males study. Started when they were 20 and still going today (my prof is 80)
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Naturalistic Observation
Observing people or animals in the “field” in their NATURAL HABITATS
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Laboratory Observation Method
Observation of behavior in a LAB rather than in the FIELD
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Correlation A measure of how closely one thing is RELATED to another
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Correlation A measure of how two factors vary together Scatterplot
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Positive Correlation A relationship between variables in which one variable GOES UP as the GOES UP (increases) *Direct Ex: People who have a greater need to achieve, earn more money (not always, but often)
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Negative Correlation Two variables in which one variable GOES UP the other GOES DOWN Inverse
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Practice: Positive, Negative, or None
Brushing teeth and No cavities Wearing Pink and Getting Good Grades Eating McDonalds and Having high cholesterol Doing well on the ACT and Graduating College Laughing a lot and having strong stomach muscles Chewing gum and being anxious Being mean and having lots of friends
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Correlation and Causation
Correlation DOES NOT mean causation Ex: low self-esteem causes depression Correlation indicates the POSSIBILITY of a cause-effect relationship Doesn’t prove anything
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Correlation coefficient
A relationship between two things (-1 to +1) The number represents the strength or weakness The sign represents the direction of the correlation Practice: -.70 vs (which is stronger? And which relationship is inverse and which is direct?)
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Illusory Correlations
When we believe there is a relationship between two thing, we are likely to notice and recall instances that confirm our belief I.E. superstitutions Influenced by confirmation bias: look for evidence that confirms our beliefs
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Perceiving Order in Random Events
Chance-related explanation Patterns and streaks occur more often than people expect
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Experimental Method Focus on one or more factors by manipulating the factors of interest and holding constant other factors The method researchers use to answer questions about cause and effect
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Variables Factors that can vary and change
Ex: temperature of room, option to leave room, how crowded it …
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Independent and Dependent Variables
Independent Variable The factor that researchers MANIPULATE so they can determine its effect Dependent Variable In an experiment, the factor being MEASURED and that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable
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Independent and dependent variables
Experiments aim to manipulate an independent variable, measure the dependent variable, and control confounding variables
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Confounding Variable Other factors that can influenced the results of the experiment Random assignment controls for possible confounding variables
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Controlled Experiment
When an experiment uses EXPERIMENTAL groups as well as CONTROL groups Experimental group: in a study, the people that RECEIVE the treatment Control Group: in a study, the people that DO NOT receive the treatment Examples: ACT Class, Teeth brushing, Resumes
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Single Blind Study Participants do not know if they are receiving the TREATMENT or not. They do not know if they are in the experiment or control group. Ex.: Experimental group receiving a drug and control group receiving a placebo
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Placebo Effect A substance treatment that has NO EFFECT apart from a person’s belief in it Ex: Receiving a tablet that appears to contain a real drug but that actually has no medicinal value All patients must participate in some sort of treatment even if it means it is not meaningful Trusted source: derives a health benefit
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Random Assignment An experiment manipulates a factor to determine its effect Double-blind procedure Placebo effect
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DOUBLE BLIND STUDY A study in which both RESEARCHER and PARTICIPANT are unaware of who has obtained the treatment To reduce researchers bias, influence due to expectations “Are you SURE your knee doesn’t hurt anymore?” Ex.: D.B.S. required by the FDA before new drugs can be put on the market
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Describing Data Measures of central tendency Mode: most frequent
Median: midpoint (50th percentile) Must arrange in order before finding the middle Mean: average Most common *If all are the same number the graph will look like a normal curve
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Skewed Data Mean is most susceptible to extremes in the data (pulled down or up) Positive skewed: scores pulls the mean toward the higher end Negative skewed: pull downed toward the lower end
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Measures of variation Range-provides only a crude estimate
Standard deviation-The most useful
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Standard Deviation The higher the standard deviation, the less similar the scores are Standard deviation and variability Smaller standard deviation then more stable conclusions
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Making inferences When an observed difference is reliable…..
Representative sample: not just random sampling. Keep in mind the population Less-variable observation (less is more) More cases: averages based on many cases are more reliable
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Statistical significance
When the sample averages are reliable and when the difference between them is relative large Not due to chance variation Psychologists are very conservative when considering statistical significance Only indicates a likelihood that a result will happen by chance not the importance of the result
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Statistical significance (practice)
If you graphed the data from two groups and the graphs did not overlap or only overlapped a little then the difference would be ______________? If the graphs overlapped a lot, then the difference would not be________________.
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Psychology Applied Can laboratory experiments illuminate everyday life? An experiment’s purpose is not to re-create the exact behaviors of everyday life but to test theoretical principles It is the resulting principles-not the specific findings that help explain everyday behaviors
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Psychology Applied Does behavior depend on one’s culture and gender?
Culture matters: awareness is key Even when specific attitudes and behaviors vary by gender or across cultures, the underlying processes are much the same
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Ethics in Research Why study animals and is it ok to experiment on them? We humans are animals: animal experiments have led to treatments for human diseases Animal protection: replace with naturalistic observation Well being of humans above that of animals?
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Ethics in Research How about experimenting on people? Informed consent
Protect from harm or discomfort Confidentiality: keeping info private Anonymity: without providing identification info Debrief on experiment Universities typically have a ethics committee
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Ethics in Research Is psychology free of value judgments?
Values affect what we study, how we study it, and how we interpret results Applications of psychology’s principles have been used mainly in the service of humanity
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