1. Welcome to the Symposium on Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks November 16, 2011 Space Policy Institute Elliott School of International Affairs George Washington University 1957 E Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20052

2. Challenges for Government Initiatives Costs for on-going conflicts Rise in transfer payments Aging population/health care costs Infrastructure recapitalization Non-State threats: physical, WMD, cyber Global economic turmoil 2

3. Past Assumptions for Launch Demand and Technical Readiness 3

5. Known Production Capacity Per Year 0-55-1010-1515-2020-2525-3030-3535-4040-45Comments RD-180 20 RP Inline Vehicle Exceeds known Production Capacity for 4 flights per year (2 flts likely) RS-25D Sidemount meets production exactly while SSME Inline exceed production by 67% for 4 flights per year. RS-25E RS-68 (all) 36 40 Original RS-68 Inline does not exceed production capacity even with USAF buy (4 flts possible) RL-10 Inline RP exactly meet production, but not with USAF buy J-2X 4 (50%) RP Inline Exceeds J-2X Production by 200+% for 4 flights 2 Flights likely/RS-68 Inline does not exceed J-2X production Solid Boosters 5-Segment 24 All vehicles do not exceed solid production capability Policy, Architecture, and Acquisition Decisions Determine the Space Launch Industrial Base National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2009 5 12 (100%) 16-20 8 (33% ) 8 28 (140%) 20 (167%) 20 (56%) 20 (100%) 12 20 NASA rate at 4 heavy lift flights per year. Air Force at EELV rate. Green represents known/estimated production at present.

6. Agenda Keynote Presentation – the Space Industrial Base Panel 1 – Alternative Market Possibilities Panel 2 – Financial and Market Risks for Space Launch Providers Lunch Panel 3 – Public/Private Sector Roles and Responsibilities Panel 4 – Near-term Risks to the Space Launch Industrial Base Panel 5 – International Customers, Competitors and Partners Closing and Summaries Reception 6

7. National Space Transportation Policy Review NSC-led policy review currently underway –Possible release by end of 2011 Some likely issues: –Human space transportation SLS, MPCV, EELV, New Entrants –Criteria for USG use of new launch vehicles –Space Industrial base – rocket motors –Technology development –Interagency coordination – NASA, AF, NRO –International cooperation – critical paths? Extension of INKSNA wavier for payments to Russia? 7

8. International Commercial Cooperation 8

9. Key Policy Questions  What is the relationship of human space transportation to larger U.S. foreign policy, economic, and national security interests?  Is there is a need for independent U.S. government human access to space, and if not, the identification of those entities upon which we are willing to depend for such access;  Is it in the larger interests of the United States to invite international partnerships in regard to capabilities which are on the so-called “critical path” for common exploration goals;  The degree to and roles in which the U.S. government should foster the development, and embrace the capabilities, of “commercial space” in the furtherance of national goals;  The proper role of NASA in the human expansion into space, and in particular NASA’s disparate functions as 'innovator and technology developer' vs. ‘designer/developer/smart buyer’ of new systems, and ‘system operator’ vs. ‘service customer’.