1. Land Use & Population Growth in Belize, Central America Modeling Future Impacts on Ecosystems ~Eve Robinson, Dept. of Marine Science

2. Why Belize? Thesis Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve Copepod & Reef Blenny Unique environments Biological diversity Recent development Tourism

3. Belize Caribbean coast of Central America Mountainous region and extensive coastline 6 districts

4. Belize Caribbean coast of Central America Mountainous region and extensive coastline 6 districts

5. Ecosystems Marine Second largest barrier reef in the World Home to rare species High biodiversity Terrestrial Protected Areas

6. Ecosystems Marine Terrestrial 93% under forest cover Mangroves Tropical rain forests Protected Areas

7. Ecosystems Marine Terrestrial Protected Areas Approx. 47% available land Encompasses breeding grounds, marine reserves, forest reserves, and sanctuaries

8. Protected Areas

9. Project Plan Land Use Urban Agriculture Population estimates Historical data Exponential growth Model Builder Relate land km 2 /person Estimate land use increase from population increase

10. Project Plan Land Use per District Population per District Land (km 2 ) per capita Population Increase N t = N 0 e rt Land Use Increase

11. Land Use.e00 files Drainage Roads Cities Land Use Import errors

12. Land Use.e00 files Drainage Roads Cities Land Use Import errors

13. Population Evenly distributed between urban & rural areas Proportional growth in most districts Estimation by district Year 2004

14. Population Population growth by exponential equation Growth rate = 2.39% Double the current population in less than 30 years

15. Progress Population estimates & growth Land use files ArcGIS compatible Implications of growth on protected habitats Urban/agricultural encroachment Habitat loss Importance of modeling