1. 1 Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in Central America Bruno Locatelli, CIRAD-CIFOR, Indonesia Pablo Imbach, CATIE, Costa Rica EuropeAid/ENV/2004-81719 Seminar series on climate change and forest management, BC Ministry of Forests and Range Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative. November 6, 2008. Teleconference between Canada and Costa Rica

2. 2 Climate change and ecosystem migration CC modifies location of suitable environments for plants (Hannah et al., 2002) Future distribution of ecosystems depends on the ability of plants to migrate (Pitelka et al., 1997; Kirilenko et al., 2000) –High migration rates (>1000 m/yr) required to adapt to CC (Malcolm et al., 2002) Many studies on CC and ecosystems consider unlimited dispersal or no dispersal (Pearson, 2006) Uncertainties on migration rates of trees: –During post-glacial warming 100’s to 1000’s m/yr (Pearson 2006, Malcolm et al., 2002), less than 100 m/yr (McLachlan et al., 2005) –Models of current migration Around 100 m/yr (Dyer, 1995)

3. 3 Biological corridors and protected areas Landscape alteration may reduce migration capacity (Pitelka, 1997) –Altering dispersal rate –Reducing suitable habitat for successful colonization Corridors can enhance landscape connectivity between valuable vegetation areas (e.g. protected areas) Their role in migration under CC depends on spatial patterns Latitudinal and altitudinal gradients –Is it so simple? Protected Area Corridor Direction of species movement due to CC

4. 4 Can corridors facilitate ecosystem migration between protected areas in a context of CC? Case of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor in Costa Rica

5. 5 Costa Rica Panama Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala Belize Mexico Study site Costa Rica –Biological richness & conservation policies –“Increasing isolation of protected areas may prevent them from functioning as an effective network” (Sánchez-Azofeifa et al., 2003) (CCAD-UNDP/GEF, 2002) Protected Areas Biological Corridors The Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) – Regional initiative – Conceptualized and agreed upon in 1997 – Under progressive implementation

6. 6 Protected Areas Mesoamerican corridor Pacific Ocean Caribbean Sea Nicaragua Panama Costa Rica N

7. 7 Approach and model assumptions (1/2) Simple representation of vegetation –Model ≠ evolution of vegetation –Model = landscape connectivity –Vegetation types = Holdridge life zones –Each vegetation type is composed of 5 groups of species with different migration rates From slow (100 m/yr) to fast-moving (2000 m/yr) Holdridge Cellular Automata

8. 8 Model assumptions (2/2) Migration is possible through contiguous pixels with vegetation 4 scenarios –No migration –Migration With vegetation only in protected areas With vegetation in protected areas and corridors With vegetation everywhere (“Eden”)

9. 9 Algorithm Controller Pixel px Species sp ft,lz Estimate 1990 Life Zone (lz 1990 ) Create baseline presence: presence(px,sp ft,lz1990 )=1 Initialize Run Estimate Current Life Zone (lz current ) sp adapted to lz current ? No: presence:=presence/2 Yes: sp already present in px? Yes: presence:=presence*2 (with upper bound due to carrying capacity) No: sp in neighbourhood? (radius=migration(ft)) Yes: presence:=0.25 No: presence:=0 Update indicators Next decade

10. 10 Data Scales –Spatial = 2.5 arc min (around 4.6 km x 4.6 km) –Temporal = Decades, from 1990 to 2050 Nicaragua Costa Rica PanamaPacific Ocean Caribbean Sea Nicaragua Costa Rica Panama Pacific Ocean Caribbean Sea Protected Areas Biological Corridors Climate and altitude –WorldClim dataset (Hijmans et al., 2005): Altitude, Monthly Precipitation and Temperature –Current and future IPCC scenario A2 HadCM3 climate model Protected Areas and Biological Corridors –CCAD map, 2001

11. 11 Results and discussion Life zone movement 86°W81.5°W 12°N 8°N

12. 12 High impacts Low impacts Pacific Ocean Caribbean Sea Nicaragua Panama N Protected areas most sensitive to CC (no migration scenario)

13. 13 Protected areas under different migration scenarios Effect of corridors

14. 14 Which protected areas benefit more from corridors?

15. 15 Which corridors contribute more to the adaptation of protected areas?

16. 16 How to explain these results? Direction of Life Zone Movement Corridors and Areas not evaluated Important corridors (connecting isolated and vulnerable areas, in a good direction) Missing corridors? Already connected protected areas

17. 17 Conclusion Sensitivity of protected areas to CC –Especially isolated areas and in mountain and dry zones Role of corridors for reducing vulnerability Useful tool for: –Identifying vulnerable protected areas –Prioritizing corridors in a context of CC Further steps: –Consider actual vegetation outside protected areas and corridors –Use different climate scenarios –Use different representations of ecosystem dynamics and migration –Perform sensitivity analysis

18. 18 Thank you!