1. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 1 CWG COA Program Review Panel #7 Describing the State of the Climate (including data assimilation) and Monitoring Panel Moderator: Tony Busalacchi Chair: Jay Lawrimore April 12, 2007

2. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 2 Outline  Goal of this effort  What is guiding this effort –Essential Climate Variables  Accomplishments of the past 5 years –And what we are providing now  Gaps and efforts to address them

3. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 3 Goal: To monitor, analyze, and report on atmosphere, ocean, and land surface conditions from the global to local scale by combining current and historical data to enhance the scientific understanding of the Earth’s varying and changing climate State of the Climate

4. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 4 Annual State of the Climate Report 130+ page peer-reviewed journal article published in the June issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Written in cooperation with numerous national and international institutions in 33 countries including: – NOAA’s CPC and ESRL – UK and Australia Bureau of Meteorology – South African Weather Service – National Climate Centre, Beijing, China Report includes summaries of: – Global Climate (Temperature, Hydrologic Cycle Trace Gases, Winds, Teleconnection Patterns) – The Tropics (ENSO, Tropical Cyclone Basins) – The Poles, Global Oceans, Regional Conditions

5. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 5 What is Guiding These Efforts  Essential Climate Variables –2nd Report on the Adequacy of Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC established a list of 42 Essential Climate Variables (ECV) –Focus is on increasing the number of ECVs monitored and reported on an operational basis  Atmosphere, Surface (6) and Upper Air (5)  Atmospheric Composition (10)  Ocean, Surface (8) and Sub-surface (7)  Terrestrial (6)

6. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 6 Essential Climate Variables Essential atmospheric variables 6 surface measurements  Air temperature  Precipitation  Air pressure  Surface radiation budget  Wind speed and direction  Water vapor 5 upper air measurements  Earth radiation budget (incl. solar irradiance)  Upper-air temperature (incl. MSU radiances)  Wind speed and direction  Water vapor  Cloud properties 10 Atmospheric composition measurements  Carbon dioxide  Methane  Ozone  [Other long-lived greenhouse gases]:  Nitrous oxide  Chlorofluorocarbons  Hydrochlorofluorocarbons  Hydrofluorocarbons  Sulphur hexaflurorides  Perfluorocarbons  Aerosol properties Essential ocean variables 8 surface measurements  Sea surface temperature  Sea surface salinity  Sea level  Sea state  Sea ice  Current  Ocean color (for biological activity)  Carbon dioxide partial pressure 7 sub-surface measurements  Temperature  Salinity  Current  Nutrients  Carbon  Ocean tracers  Phytoplankton 6 Terrestrial Variables  Soil moisture and wetness  Surface ground temperature  Subsurface temperature and moisture  Snow and ice cover  Permafrost  Glaciers and ice sheets

7. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 7 ECV’s included in State of the Climate 2001 (11) Essential atmospheric variables 6 surface measurements  Air temperature  Precipitation 5 upper air measurements  Upper-air temperature (incl. MSU radiances) 10 Atmospheric composition measurements  Carbon dioxide  Methane  Ozone  Nitrous oxide  Chlorofluorocarbons  Hydrochlorofluorocarbons Essential ocean variables 8 surface measurements  Sea surface temperature 7 sub-surface measurements 6 Terrestrial Variables  Snow and ice cover

8. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 8 Accomplishments of Past 5 Years  Collaboration –10-fold increase in number of contributing authors (16->150+) –~10-fold increase in number of participating countries (4->33)  Expansion of overall content –New chapters  Oceans  Polar  All Tropical Cyclone basins  Expanded Regional coverage

9. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 9 What is Provided Now Atmospheric Surface Mean Temperature Precipitation – In situ and Satellite Surface wind speeds Quikscat and Reanalysis

10. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 10 What is Provided Now Atmospheric Surface – Paleo Reconstructions Reconstructed Summer Rainfall, N. Central Texas Reconstructed Annual Rainfall, Western New Mexico

11. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 11  MSU Lower, Mid-Trop, Stratosphere (UAH, RSS, UW)  RATPAC What is provided now Atmospheric Upper-Air Cloud Amounts Mid-Troposphere Graphic courtesy Hadley Centre CIMSS Radiative Forcing – 21.5% increase since 1990 attributed to increase in GHGs ESRL Cloud cover

12. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 12 What is Provided Now Ocean Surface  SST (Smith-Reynolds ERSST)  Sea ice (Passive/Active Microwave)  Ocean color (NASA SeaWiFS)  Sea surface salinity (Argo floats)  Sea level (GLOSS and Jason sat.)  Surface current (AOML drifter program)

13. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 13 Global Drifting Buoy Array Monitoring Surface Current 1,250 Drifters - AOML Milestone Global Drifter 1250 (a.) Jan-Mar (d.) Oct-Dec Surface Current Anomalies

14. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 14 Argo Floats Monitoring Sea Surface Salinity 2005 to 2006 change in sea surface salinity

15. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 15 What is provided now Ocean Sub-surface Thermohaline Circulation via FL Straits Cable Heat Content: 0-750 meters Sat. Alt. and Argo floats Change in DIC from 1991 to 2006 – along 152W Meridian (Repeat Hydrography Program) World Ocean Atlas and Database, 2005

16. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 16 What is provided now Terrestrial Mar/Sep 2006 Arctic Sea Ice Extent A few clusters of permafrost temperature stations exist globally N. Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent

17. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 17 ECV’s included in State of the Climate 2006 (20/29) Essential atmospheric variables 6 surface measurements  Air temperature  Precipitation  Wind speed and direction 5 upper air measurements  Earth radiation budget (incl. solar irradiance)  Upper-air temperature (incl. MSU radiances)  Cloud properties 10 Atmospheric composition measurements  Carbon dioxide  Methane  Ozone  Nitrous oxide  Chlorofluorocarbons  Hydrochlorofluorocarbons  Hydrofluorocarbons  Sulphur hexaflurorides  Aerosol properties Essential ocean variables 8 surface measurements  Sea surface temperature  Sea surface salinity  Sea level  Sea ice  Current  Ocean color (for biological activity)  Carbon dioxide partial pressure 7 sub-surface measurements  Temperature  Carbon  Current 6 Terrestrial Variables  Soil moisture and wetness  Snow and ice cover  Permafrost  Glaciers and ice sheets

18. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 18 PM ECV Guidance  Climate Corporate Performance Measure –Increase in the # of essential climate variables that have a quantitative analysis and assessment of long-term trends and variations in climate performed and published in ASCRs –Guidance Absent  Spatial coverage  What constitutes long-term  How should new observing systems be handled  Currency

19. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 19 Operational ECV Guidance  Global coverage or reflective of conditions in regions of key importance  Historical perspective or for newly developed technologies and observing systems the available data should provide information to better understand the climate system today while forming the basis for future study of decadal and multi-decadal changes  Currency – data for the current year to the extent possible

20. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 20 ECVs – Bigger Gaps Essential atmospheric variables 6 surface measurements  Surface radiation budget  Water vapor 5 upper air measurements  Earth radiation budget (incl. solar irradiance)  Water vapor 10 Atmospheric composition measurements  Perfluorocarbons Essential ocean variables 8 surface measurements  Sea state 7 sub-surface measurements  Nutrients  Ocean tracers  Phytoplankton 6 Terrestrial Variables  Soil moisture and wetness  Surface ground temperature  Subsurface temperature and moisture

21. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 21 Strategies for Addressing Gaps  Leverage off new programs and networks –Integrated Earth System Analysis –Soil moisture monitoring networks  Build upon advances in observing networks and data sets from developing programs –Argo floats, Drifting buoys, GLOSS –GODAE High Res SST, GlobCOLOUR  Long-term Programmatic Strategy

22. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 22 Assimilating Observations into Earth System Models: Toward Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability Overarching Objective: Improve the scientific capacity to assimilate current and planned future observations from disparate observing systems into Earth system models that include physical, chemical, and biological processes in order to produce our best synthesized description of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving over time. Goal: To provide a scientifically-based, internally consistent description of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving over time.

23. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 23  Actions: –Develop the capability to integrate within Earth system models an increasing range of observational data. –Prioritize and focus efforts to include new observations of the Earth system within models through data assimilation. –Improve coordination and advance efforts in observations, modeling, and data assimilation required to achieve this capability.  Benefits: –Provide a baseline description of recent behavior of the integrated Earth system for informing policy options related to global-to-regional climate variations and change. –Provide historical and ongoing analyses of the Earth system to support a wide array of research studies, especially on the coupled system. –Support practical applications in agriculture, energy, and other economic sectors, as well as management of fresh water, land, marine and other environmental resources. Assimilating Observations into Earth System Models: Toward Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability

24. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 24 Leverage off new networks  Soil Moisture and Temperature –US Climate Reference Network to be fitted with SMT sensors at all sites as part of NIDIS –Possibility of same for USHCN-M –U.S. and Global Real- time Land Data Assimilation System

25. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 25 Leverage off New Technologies and Databases  Water Vapor –Ground-based GPS Meteorology –New global gridded database of surface humidity observations  UK CRU

26. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 26 Leverage off Ongoing Programs Change in DIC from 1991 to 2006 – along 152W Meridian (Repeat Hydrography Program)  Measurement and study of carbon cycle –Repeat Hydrography Program  Sub-surface ocean measurement –Capitalize on completion of Argo floats network and new analyses

27. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 27 Leverage off Ongoing Programs GlobCOLOUR  Goals are to develop a 10-year global ocean color data set and demonstrate a near-real time (NRT) service based on merged data  Sensors currently used: ENVISAT/MERIS, AQUA/MODIS, SeaSTAR/SeaWiFS  10-year Full Product Set available later in 2007  Final project phase begins fall 2007 to demonstrate NRT delivery of merged ocean color products GlobCOLOUR Chlorophyll-a from MERIS, MODIS, and SeaWiFS for April of 2003

28. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 28 Leverage off Ongoing Programs International GODAE High ResSST Project  Delivering next-generation, high-resolution, global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from multiple satellites Includes both near-real time SSTs and reprocessed, delayed mode, climate data records Data provided by international partners at Regional Data Assembly Centers to Global Data Assembly Center at NASA ’ s Physical Oceanography DAAC All data then go to NOAA ’ s National Oceanographic Data Center for long term stewardship NOAA, NASA, and ESA instruments form the backbone of the observing system, and NOAA-NASA partnership delivers global data management services Includes NOAA ’ s AVHRR-16/17/18 and GOES-11/12; NASA ’ s TMI, AMSR-E, and MODIS; and Europe ’ s SEVIRI and AATSR; also several gap-free analysis products SST Anomalies (ºC) from OSTIA (Crown Copyright 2007, data provided by Met Office, UK) and AVHRR Pathfinder for 13 Dec 2006 and 03 Mar 2007, illustrating the disappearance of El Niño. http://ghrsst.nodc.noaa.govhttp://ghrsst.nodc.noaa.gov and http://www.ghrsst-pp.orghttp://www.ghrsst-pp.org 13 Dec 2006 03 Mar 2007

29. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 29 Long-term Programmatic Strategy  ECV goal attainment cannot be assured without continued commitment from NOAA (&GEO) to address observational, research, and operational deficiencies in all three areas –Atmosphere –Ocean –Land surface

30. CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 30 Discussion