1. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 Research to Operations in the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Lars Peter Riishojgaard Director, JCSDA

2. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 Overview JCSDA; mission and partners Research to Operations Failure modes What next ?

3. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 What is the JCSDA? An interagency organization set up by NASA (GSFC/GMAO), NOAA (NCEP/EMC, NESDIS/STAR, OAR/ESRL), and DoD (AFWA, NRL/Monterey) JCSDA Mission: … to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models

4. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 What does the Joint Center do? Primarily Numerical Weather Prediction on the global scale –Numerical models run out to 7-10 days –Horizontal resolution ~50 km –Vertical resolution (in the atmospheric boundary layer): hundreds of meters

5. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 Why should you care about global NWP? Provides boundary conditions to regional/mesoscale models used for surface weather Data assimilation is a great technique for “data homogenization” Longer range forecasts require global approach

6. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 NWP observational data requirement as a function of forecast range

7. Improvement in forecast skill for middle and high latitudes Polar winds from MODIS: Pioneered by GMAO, transferred via JCSDA to NCEP/EMC Sequences of water vapor images from MODIS can be used for wind retrivals in high-latitude regions not seen from geostationary orbit MODIS WV imagery, 24 h period Consistent 15-20% improvement in hurricane track forecasts in 2004

8. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 Research to Operations; why do we (occasionally) fail? I.Lack of funding II.Lack of coordination between R and O III.Lack of human resources IV.Premature exit V.Science not sufficiently mature VI.Lack of awareness of needs

9. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 Scientific expectation gap: the case of Quikscat

10. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 Scientific roadblocks Imagery data/feature tracking winds –Quality control and height assignment notoriously difficult Surface winds –Not a model variable; difficult to relate to prognostic variables Anything related to the hydrological cycle, e.g. clouds, precip –Arguable the most important unsolved scientific problem in atmospheric science

11. 3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007 What can we do here? Open the dialog! JCSDA needs to be aware of needs of all users, direct as well as indirect - including Surface Transportation communities JCSDA user communities need to be cognizant of NWP capabilities and plans, and have a voice in the formulation of the latter