1. METAC / IMF price statistics mission October 12-28, 2008 New estimates for the national CPI 2005 - 2008 26.10.2008 Kari Manninen EconAdvisor

2. Revised national CPI estimates Base prices of 2005 Still old weights ◦ Could apply new weights at 4-digit level ◦ Not a massive effect The average annual inflation

3. Headline CPI

4. Comparison to the old series Incomplete No recalculated series for 2000 – 2005

7. Annual inflation

8. * 8 month average

9. Annual inflation * 12 months average

10. New and old official inflation

19. Options Do not revise Revise national only from 2005 onwards Compile new index based on new methodology, weights from 05, 06, 07, or 08 onwards New CPI 2008 = 100 ◦ New weights ◦ Geomean ◦ Linking 2008 old prices to the index

20. Lessons from the analysis More frequent price collection! Better item specifications! Seasonal products Better data validation CPI Publication ◦ National index the priority ◦ Regional indices fairly unreliable ◦ Contributions

21. Users and revision Concerted revision with National Accounts! Users need to be informed – How? ◦ Central bank ◦ Ministry of Finance, Planning ◦ Private banking Policy implication! ◦ Monetary policy ◦ Salaries ◦ Pensions ◦ Contract escalation