1. Calculating emissions from road transport in Macedonia using the COPERT 4 model
Igor Trpevski
University of St. Cyril and Methodius Skopje,
Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts

2. Structure Motivation Copert 4 background Compiled input data Results
Summary

3. Motivation Air pollution in several cities in the country
No significant study for air pollution from road transport
Significant increase in second-hand vehicles since 2010 due to policy shift
Diesel cars number in 2012 triples from 2000

4. Motivation Imported vehicles 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* New
11927
8074
6739
5156
4101
4188
2284
Used
4224 (27%)
54445 (87%)
35788
(84%)
30127
(85%)
31056
(88%)
30919
10996
(82%)
Total
16151
62519
42527
35283
35157
35107
13280
Source: National Customs office
* First 6 months

5. Copert 4 Calculates emissions of pollutants from road transport
major air pollutants (CO, NOx, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals)
greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4)
Covers all vehicle categories
passenger cars, Light duty vehicles (LDV), Heavy duty vehicles (HDV), two-wheelers (mopeds and motorcycles
Subcategory by engine class, or weight of HDV

6. Copert 4
Also covers a lot of vehicle emissions technologies from PRE ECE to EURO 6
Can be used to calculate emissions from
Can be applied in all European countries

7. Copert 4
Compliant with the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook
Tier 3 methodology - exhaust emissions are calculated using a combination of firm technical data (e.g. emission factors) and activity data (e.g. total vehicle km)
Total emmissions = cold start + hot emmisions

8. Copert 4 - Input data Activity data for fleet Driving conditions
Number of vehicles per vehicle category (very important)
Number of vehicles per sub-category
Distribution of the vehicle fleet into different exhaust emission legislation classes (very important)
Mileage per vehicle class (very important)
Driving conditions
Average speed and share in different driving modes – urban, rural highway
Other variables
Climatic conditions
Mean trip distance

9. Fleet data We started with …
Number of vehicles in 2012 per category and fuel type (gasoline, diesel, LPG)
Passenger cars
Busses
Two-wheelers
Light duty vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
Road tractors
Agricultural vehicles

10. Fleet data No emission technology data
pre ECE vehicles
up to 1971
ECE & 01
1972 to 1977
ECE 15 02
1978 to 1980
ECE 15 03
1981 to 1985
ECE 15 04
1985 to 1992
Euro 1
1992 to 1996
Euro 2
1996 to 2000
Euro 3
2000 to 2004
Euro 4
2005 to 2010
Euro 5
No emission technology data
Used age distribution as a proxy
for estimating emission
technology in the vehicles

11. Fleet data
For each vehicle category we have the number of vehicles produced dating back to 2000.
… before 2000 we know only the total sum
Most cars imported since 2010 were Euro 1 and Euro 2 i.e. production year before 2000
Higher uncertainty in these vehicles

12. Fleet data Other gaps in the data included: No engine capacity data
No weight categorization for HDV
Had to rely on homologation statistics which are 10~20% sample of the whole fleet
Mileage data was used from the FLEETS project

13. Input data Trip length - 12km Trip duration - 12 minutes
Average monthly temperatures from WMO
Fuel effect year

14. Fuel balance
After the first run Gasoline and LPG mileage were lowered to achieve fuel balance
Statistical (t)
Calculated (t)
Deviation (%)
Gasoline (fossil)
111708
1.03
Diesel (fossil & bio)
296975
-7.23
LPG
33082
1.26
Data for statistical fuel consumption

15. Results PM10
Total [t]

16. Results PM10

17. Results PM 2.5
Total [t]

18. Results PM 2.5

19. Results CO2
Total - 1,382,793 [t]

20. Results CO2 per vehicle type

21. 2012 vs 2030 diesel PC 2012 Type Emission technology Number
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Conventional
6579
PC Euro 1
17543
PC Euro 2
19736
PC Euro 3
12976
PC Euro 4
10876
PC Euro 5
5274
Diesel >2,0 l
731
1949
2193
1442
1208
587
2030
Type
Emission technology
Number
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Conventional
PC Euro 1
PC Euro 2
PC Euro 3
17886
PC Euro 4
15876
PC Euro 5
10184
PC Euro 6
18584
Diesel >2,0 l
1987
1753
1132
1618
Hybrid
10542
Electric
1621

22. 2012 vs 2030 CO2 reduction CO2 Type 2012 CO2[t] 2030 CO2[t]
% difference
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
303247
267,200
-12 %
Diesel > 2.0
41199
37,397
-9 %
Hybrid 1,4 - 2,0 l
18594
Hybrid > 2,0 l
2065
PM10
Type
2012 PM10 [t]
2030 PM10 [t]
% difference
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
117.48
51.01
-56 %
Diesel > 2.0
13.71
5.42
-61%
PM2.5
Type
2012 PM2.5 [t]
2030 PM2.5 [t]
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
102.3
36.25
-64%
Diesel > 2.0
11.9
3.88
-67%

23. Source of electricity Carbon intensity for Macedonia ~ 1300 gCO2/KWh
Region
Carbon Intensity gCO2/KWh
BMW i3 EV gCO2/km
BMW 116i Petrol gCO2/km
EU28
430 55
135
France 71
9.2
Poland
1100
142
Macedonia
1300
166

24. Summary
Major source of pollution are recently imported Euro 1 and Euro 2 vehicles
The trend of importing them continued through 2013 and 2014
Shift in policy to stimulate replacement of older vehicles

25. Thank you for your attention
Igor Trpevski,