2. Demographic impacts on elderly support Guo Zhigang Department of Sociology, Peking University, 100871, China zguo@pku.edu.cn

3. Change in mean size of household

4. Decomposing the Change of mean size of household Population by Age (%)198219902000 0-1433.5927.6922.89 15-6461.5066.7470.15 65+4.915.576.96 1982-1990:  MS=4.41-3.96= 0.45,  MC=1.48-1.10= 0.38 (85.5%) 1990-2000:  MS=3.96-3.44= 0.52,  MC=1.10-0.79= 0.31 (59.4%) 0-141.481.100.79 15-642.712.642.41 65+0.22 0.24 Mean Size of FHH (persons)4.413.963.44

5. Population by age by HH type 2-generation 3-generation Couple Single

6. Percent of the elderly(65+) not living with offsprings YearMaleFemaleAll 198226.8324.5725.58 199029.7824.4426.86 200037.4229.8533.43

7. The elderly and the Family in China

8. Figure 4 Inter-generational net wealth flow by residence and age group: 1992

9. Map by fertility policy

10. Implications by fertlility policy Table 8 Population Distribution by Policy Implemented 1 Child1.5 Children2 Children3 Children 35.4 % 53.6 % 9.7 % 1.3 % Table 9 Distribution of Couples according to Fertility Policies 1 Child2 Children3 Children 63.1 % 35.6 % 1.3 %

11. Fertility by the policies Table 10 Average Policy Fertility Level RegionWeighted Revised TFR National1.465 East1.385 Central1.472 West1.560 West21.728 Note: West 2 stands for the calculation for the west region without Chongqin municipality and Sichuan province, where one child policy is implemented.

12. Population Ageing Table 11 China ’ s population age structure Year19531964198219902000 Population aged 0-14 (%)36.2840.6933.5927.6922.89 Population aged 15-64 (%)59.3155.7561.5066.7470.15 Population aged 65 and over (%)4.413.564.915.576.96 Dependency ratio of children61.273.054.641.532.6 Dependency ratio of the aged7.46.48.08.39.9 Total dependency ratio68.679.462.649.842.6

13. Only Child % in future under the policy

15. Future Marriage Probability under the policy