1. The State of the Industry

2. Stephen Graham Senior Director of Programs and Services with ATS since 2008 2

3. The State of the Industry ●Faculty ●Enrollment and students ●Finances

4. Daniel Aleshire Executive Director since 1998 with ATS since 1990

5. The changing religious context

6. The changing religious landscape Religious adherence has declined. A growing percentage of the population is generically religious but without any particular religious involvement. Denominational affiliation is declining. Trust in religious institutions is declining. Congregational life and worship practices are changing. Larger congregations attract an increasing % of attendees. The “spiritual but not religious” engage in religious practices. The Roman Catholic Church will be majority Hispanic and Asian before 2030. The Catholic Church is growing; attendance is not.

7. Data sources Commission on Accrediting Institutional Database (Annual Report Forms) Graduating Student Questionnaires Faculty Development Study (2015)

8. Enrollment

9. Total enrollment by degree categories 1994–2014 Source: COA Institutional Database 9

10. Percentage of ATS member schools with stable, declining, and increasing annual enrollment 2006–2014 Source: COA Institutional Database 10

11. Change in head count enrollment 2005–2014 Source: COA Institutional Database 11

12. Why the enrollment decline? ●Decline in religious participation  fewer ministry positions ●More ministry positions not requiring graduate seminary education ●Expensive theological education ●End of Baby Boom bubble

13. Tom Tanner Director, Accreditation and Institutional Evaluation with ATS since 2012

14. MDiv head count 2005–2014 14 Source: COA Institutional Database

15. Nondegree student enrollment 2005–2014 15 Source: COA Institutional Database

16. Professional and academic MA head count 2005–2014 16 If recent trends continue, MAs will surpass MDiv by 2022 (at around 26,000) Source: COA Institutional Database

17. White enrollment 2005–2014 17 Source: COA Institutional Database

18. Racial/ethnic enrollment 2005–2014 18 If present trends continue, racial/ethnic students will be majority by 2025. (25% of member schools are majority racial/ethnic now.) Source: COA Institutional Database

19. Trends in enrollment by educational pattern 1990–2014 Source: COA Institutional Database 19

20. Enrollment by Age 1995–2013 Source: COA Institutional Database 20

21. Enrollment trends Decline: – a decade-long phenomenon – not the result of failed recruitment – cause of decreased revenue – questions about mission Growth: – racial/ethnic students – professional MAs

22. Questions for ATS? Please email askats@ats.edu Questions for consideration with colleagues and board members: You have seen the overall enrollment trends; what are the enrollment trends in your institution? What are the implications of those trends for your school’s mission and its educational and institutional practices?

23. ATS Programs and Services www.ats.edu

24. The State of the Industry Thank you for attending! www.ats.edu