1. GALLUP WORLD POLL Insights on Would Be Migrants and Remittances Gerver Torres March 2009

2. 2 The World Poll Annually polling 95% of the Earth's adult population Conducted in more than 150 countries and territories Largest available independent source of key world behavioral and economic data. Same core questions asked across nations and over time, allowing for harmonized international data. Rigorous measurement methodology Nationally representative data - includes both urban and rural areas Samples of at least 1,000 adults per country

3. 3 Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances Some direct questions on migration and remittances in the World Poll: Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? To which country would you like to move? (Open ended and code) Are you planning to move permanently to that country in the next 12 months? Have any members of your household, aged 15 to 60, gone to live in a foreign country permanently or temporarily in the past five years? For the person who went most recently, what was the highest level of his/her education? In which country does/did he/she live?

4. 4 Do you have relatives or friends who are living in another country whom you can count on to help you when you need them, or not? In which country, or countries, do they live? Approximately, how much money in [local currency] does this household receive from relatives living abroad per month? If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing? Do you personally know of someone who is planning to move out of [country] in the next 12 months, or not? Do you personally know of someone who was living outside of [country] and returned in the past 12 months, or not? Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances

5. 5 How many members of this household work temporarily in another country? In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you. Are any of your family members or relatives currently studying or are in a work study program abroad (including countries of the former Soviet Union), or not? In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you. Were you born in this country, [country], or not? Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances

6. Not always easy to ask those questions… 6 “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?” Cuba

7. Gallup World Poll and Migration 7 Some findings

8. 8 Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate AFRICA35.20%6.70% THE AMERICAS28.50%3.30% ASIA16.40%1.90% EUROPE18.10%0.70% Total21.70%3.20% Wish Plan Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted equally

9. 9 Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted by population of adults aged 15 or older AFRICA33.41%6.39% THE AMERICAS17.80%1.77% ASIA9.02%0.66% EUROPE18.03%0.84% World total13.61%1.40% Want to migrate Plan to migrate

10. 10 AFRICA136.226.0 THE AMERICAS113.711.3 ASIA247.618.1 EUROPE76.93.6 World Total574.6 Million59.1 Million Values in millions of people Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate Want to migrate Plan to migrate

11. 11 Wanting to migrate by country Sierra Leone64.50% Guyana59.60% Congo (Kinshasa)58.80% Ghana58.30% Nigeria58.20% Liberia57.90% Zimbabwe56.80% Dominican Republic56.50% Senegal55.50% Uganda51.00% Malawi50.90% Haiti50.80% El Salvador49.20% Cameroon49.10% Ethiopia46.10% Tajikistan10.70% Laos10.50% Finland10.40% Austria9.20% South Africa8.20% Spain7.90% India7.70% Uzbekistan7.70% Australia7.60% Malaysia7.30% Pakistan6.80% Indonesia6.00% China5.90% Thailand5.90% Saudi Arabia3.10% Top 15 Bottom 15

12. 12 Planning to migrate by country Congo Brazzaville28.00% Djibouti22.20% Senegal20.80% Haiti14.80% Zimbabwe13.30% Algeria13.10% Sierra Leone12.60% Afghanistan11.80% Liberia10.60% Mali9.10% Nigeria8.80% Palestine8.40% Honduras8.00% Lebanon7.20% Tanzania7.20% Austria0.50% United States0.40% Turkey0.40% Netherlands0.40% Sweden0.40% Singapore0.40% India0.40% Uganda0.40% Indonesia0.30% China0.30% Russia0.30% Ireland0.30% Denmark0.20% Malaysia0.20% Japan0.10% Top 15Bottom 15

13. Net Migration 2002-2006 13

14. Wishing to Migrate 2008 World Poll 14

15. Plans to Migrate World Poll 2008 15

16. Receiving Remittances World Poll 2008 16

17. Country Level Analysis of Migration Data How do our World Poll migration data relate to net migration rates? It’s a tricky process to convert our survey data to net migration data (e.g., Is our sample size sufficient?, Can we reliably generate the 150 country x 150 country matrix needed to calculate this?) We’re working on this. But we do know this: The correlation between net migration rates between 2002 and 2006 and the percentage of people in a given country who receive remittances in 2008 is r = -.38 worldwide (and much higher everywhere except in Africa). This may not sound very high but migration is less stable over time than people assume. The correlation between 2002-2006 net migration and 2008 net migration is only r =.56. 17

18. 18 Best predictors for wanting and planning to migrate 1.Having a plan to start your own business. 2.Living in a low GDP country. 3.Being single. 4.Perceiving that hard work doesn’t pay off in your own society. 5.Living in an urban area (city or suburb). 6.Having a high household income (relative to others in your country) 7.Being young. 8.Being distressed (index of pain, worry, sadness and stress) 9.Being dissatisfied with your standard of living 10.Being male. 11.Being religious 12.Being unemployed

19. 19 Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Percentage Wanting to Migrate The more of the ten migration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to want to Migrate. Quintile 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th

20. 20 Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months? Percentage Planning to Migrate The more of the ten emigration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to plan to Migrate. Quintile 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th

21. 21 Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate: Receipt of Remittances Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Percentage Wanting to Migrate Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are still more likely to want to Migrate.

22. 22 Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate: Receipt of Remittances Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Percentage Planning to Migrate Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are twice as likely to plan to migrate.

23. 23 The message behind remittances What is the message that comes with remittances? The situation there is better than here If he or she can do it why can’t I? There is some one there I can count on

24. 24 Jobs and migration Do you have a job? Percentage Wanting to Migrate

25. 25 Jobs and migration Do you have a job? Percentage Planning to Migrate

26. 26 Jobs and migration Are you satisfied with your job? Percentage Wanting to Migrate

27. 27 Jobs and migration Are you satisfied with your job? Percentage Planning to Migrate

28. 28 Having a plan to start your own business Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months? Percentage Planning to Migrate

29. 29 Having a plan to start your own business for those who do NOT believe that working hard in their home country pays off: Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months? Percentage Planning to Migrate

30. 30 Who are those who want to migrate? The concept of well being in the World Poll: “Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time?”

31. 31 Who are those who want to migrate? 10 0 7 5 4 6 Thriving Struggling Suffering The concept of well being in the World Poll:

32. 32 Who are those who want to migrate? GDP group Income in Local CurrencyWell being Mean bottom quartilePoorest 20%suffering0.293 struggling0.186 thriving0.238 Richest 20%suffering0.344 struggling0.274 thriving0.304 top quartilePoorest 20%suffering0.199 struggling0.091 thriving0.114 Richest 20%suffering0.289 struggling0.221 thriving0.142

33. 33 Who are those who are planning to migrate? GDP group Income in Local Currencywellbeing Mean bottom quartilePoorest 20%suffering0.06 struggling0.04 thriving0.05 Richest 20%suffering0.12 struggling0.07 thriving0.08 top quartilePoorest 20%suffering0.008 struggling0.006 thriving0.007 Richest 20%suffering0.031 struggling0.019 thriving0.008

34. 34 Latin America

35. For Latin Americans Migration is a “Win, Win” Deal 35 When you think of the people who go to live in other countries, do you consider them to be a big problem or a big help for…. (% that think of migrants as problem/ help) For the sending country For their families For the receiving countries

36. Reasons to migrate To escape from poverty37.8 To make money and help loved ones back home29.1 To achieve higher personal or professional growth16.8 To give a better education to their kids5.3 To be able to afford house3.9 To escape from crime2.9 To escape from political conflict1.3 36 In your opinion, which or the following is the single most important reason why people migrate from this country?

37. Where they plan to go to United States35.3 Spain21.5 Canada4.5 Argentina4 Brazil3.3 Italy3.2 Mexico2.6 France2.4 United Kingdom1.8 37 %

38. Expectations on remittances Stayed the same47.5 Increase19.3 Decrease18 38 % In the next twelve months, do you expect the amount of remittances this household receives, to increase, decrease or stay the same? Surprised by current Financial turbulence

39. What do you do with remittances? Covering basic needs53.9 Saving14.1 Other (Specify)7.5 Educating kids6.2 Building a house3 Starting a business3 Buying a car/other durable goods2.3 39 If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing?

40. Using a loan with remittances as collateral Yes34.2 No59.6 (DK)5.5 (Refused)0.7 40 If you were offered a loan for an amount equivalent to six months worth of remittances, and the monthly payments on it were reasonable enough for you to afford, would you take this loan or not?

41. 41 Percentage of Residents with Relatives Living Abroad in 12 Latin American Countries

42. 42 Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad & (2) Also Receive Remittances in 12 Latin American Countries Relatives Abroad Get Remittances

43. 43 Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances & (3) Also Desire to be Entrepreneurs In 12 Latin American Countries Relatives Abroad Get Remittances Entrepreneurs

44. 44 Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances, (3) Desire to be Entrepreneurs, and (4) Feel Loans Are Hard to Get in 12 Latin American Countries Relatives Abroad Get Remittances Entrepreneurs Feel Loans are Hard to Get

45. 45 Number of Residents Likely to be Interested in Small Business Loans in 12 Latin American Countries (in Millions of People)