1. A Black President? American’s Increasing Acceptance of Black Political Leaders Group Members: Kenzie Adam Kenzie Adam Hyekyung Jung Hyekyung Jung Joe Paulsen Joe Paulsen Paige Paulson Paige Paulson Alex Potkonjak Alex Potkonjak Lauren Shape Lauren Shape

2. Our Poll Question  “If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president that happened to be black, would you vote for that person?” (Gallup Poll 1958-2003)

3. Gallup Poll 1958-2003

4. Theoretical Foundations 1. Moscovici’s Theory of Social Innovation and the Role of Opinion Minorities 2. Availability Heuristic

5. 1. Moscovici’s Theory of Social Innovation and the Role of Opinion Minorities  Addresses the role that opinion minorities play in reshaping societal norms  “If you can’t support me and you can’t endorse me, then get out of my way. You do your thing and let me do mine.” Shirley Chisholm  Social norms are “transitory and momentary”  Norms are not static, but rather are in a “continual state of flux as groups respond to internal and external changes and events” (Price and Oshagan, 1995)

6. 2. The Availability Heuristic Is the consideration to vote for a black candidate even present in voters’ minds? Is the consideration to vote for a black candidate even present in voters’ minds? Reference points: significant events, experiences, the media and we think, most importantly the emergence of blacks in positions of governmental power Reference points: significant events, experiences, the media and we think, most importantly the emergence of blacks in positions of governmental power

7. Our Prediction Increase in # of black political leaders + # of newspaper articles mentioning black political leaders = Increase in public’s willingness to vote for a black president (reference points)

8. Methods Source: New York Times articles, print edition, 1958- 2007 Coding for: # of articles with the black political leader’s name present Categories: – –Members of Congress = 99 – –Members of the Cabinet = 13 – –Members of the Supreme Court = 2 – –Presidential Candidates = 7 111 total names, 37,891 articles counted

9. Methods Search Terms: everyone searched the name of the person in quotes to ensure uniformity of results Included articles from all dates ie. Even if Jesse Jackson was not a candidate in 1980, the article still creates a reference point for the future (availability heuristic) Limitations: – –Computer-aided search (relying on NYT database/skimming abstracts) – –False-Negatives (unable to determine) – –False-Positives (checked every 20th article up to 100)

10. Content Analysis Results Number of Newspaper Articles with mention of black leader’s name

11. A Different View: Presidential Election Years

12. A Correlation? A Correlation?

13. Correlation not Causation Content Analysis vs. Gallup Poll

14. Why Should We Care ? Public Opinion Shift From 37% to 95% Support…Why? 1. Media as gatekeepers 2. Changing social norms 3. Influence on individuals’ opinions