1. Public Opinion

2. What is public opinion? ► “To speak with precision of public opinion is a task not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghost” –VO Key Jr. ► Attitudes, perceptions, and views individuals hold about politics and govt. ► Willing to share, common concerns ► how much goes into making policy?

3. What makes it so confusing? ► Only attracts the attention of some ► Many times no majority opinion ► Pluralist: often prevails- govt. responds to the view of intense minority ► Elitist: other issues that are obscure. ex: US relations with Madagascar? ► Majority (mass): few, broad, all- concerning issues- social security ► Attentive: those with an active interest

4. Ways to express public opinion ► Voting ► Protest demonstration ► Letter-writing ► Television commercials ► Lobbyists ► E-mail ► Think of one more!

5. The debate on ► How much should it really play in public policy? ► Madison: popular opinion vs. public o. ► “Momentary passions are not govt. concern, represent only “true interests” ► Jackson and Progressive movements ► George Gallup (the Gallup poll): any opinion held by citizens should be taken into account

6. George Gallup Quickly try to predict the margin of error!

7. How informed are the people? ► Kosovo ► Jaywalking ► The news? Thinking stick: Are Americans informed enough to make governing decisions? Should there be prerequisites?

8. Types of Opinions: ► Stable: change very little (death penalty) ► Fluid: change frequently (popularity) ► Latent: dormant, but may be aroused (the draft) ► Intense: (abortion?) ► Non-intensive: ► Salient: personal importance to some (Brady Bill) CP Skip!

9. Types of Opinions: ► Consensus: shared by 75% people (balanced budget) ► Polarized: shared by LESS than 75% (serious gun control) Polarized opinion: America should outlaw weapons!

10. The value of opinion polls

11. Measuring Public Opinion: Polls ► Straw Polls are inaccurate ► Elections don’t tell why ► Scientific polls are the best! ► Construction: - definition of universe - Accurate selection of sample (1000) - Writing the question - Selection or means of polling

12. What might be some problems with polls? ► Sampling error (3%, Gallup amazing!) ► Probability sample ► Wording ► Election night projections through “exit polls” Horse-race journalism!

13. Can you see how “wording” of questions can be manipulative?

14. Exit Poll Issues ► “Horse Race” mentality ► Pandering to whims of public ► Early projection can discourage turnout in the West and flawed data (Florida!) Hand-counts In Florida: 2000 1992: So many polls lead to voter apathy. Clinton was projected way in lead! Perot?