1. Public Opinion Polls What is public opinion?

2. Public Opinion Polls take the pulse of America regarding many different issues. They are also predictors of elections.

3. How do Election Polls Work?

4. There are different types of polls. Straw PollExit Poll

5. When looking at a poll, there are a few things you should consider: Who Conducts the Poll? Candidate vs Neutral Organization The Sample Size Needs to be random ~1500 people The Margin of Error A measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll. Usually ± 3% is acceptable

6. When looking at a poll, there are a few things you should consider: When the Poll was conducted The Poll Methodology How clearly the questions were worded

7. What are the definitions of the following terms? Distribution Open Ended Questions Universe (or population) Consensus Polarized Manifest Opinion

8. Is polling accurate?

9. Discuss the following questions with your partner Why is it important for leaders to know latent opinions? What is salience? What issues are often salient to people? How has public opinion shaped policy? How do politicians use polls?

10. Polling in the November 2012 Election Prior to the 1 st Presidential Debate Gallup Poll – Obama 48% – Romney 45% CBS/NY Times Poll: Swing States – Obama a 53 percent to 44 percent lead in Florida and a 53 percent to 43 percent advantage in Ohio.

11. Polling in the November 2012 Election After the 1 st Presidential Debate Pew Research Survey of Likely Voters 49% Support Romney 45% Support Obama Pew Research Survey of Registered Voters 46% Support Romney AND Obama Gallup Poll of Registered Voters 47% Support Romney AND Obama ***Show video clip

12. In Review… What is public opinion? Explain the different types of polls? What must you consider when looking at a poll?