1. Michael McKenna MWR Strategies April 2008
Climate Change
Michael McKenna
MWR Strategies
April 2008

2. Methodology
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April 2008

3. Focus Groups
Eight groups consisting of registered voters in the middle of the political spectrum
In 2, majority identified climate change as “immediate threat”
In remaining 6, majority identified it as “major problem”
Locations
Atlanta
Tampa
Detroit
Minneapolis LA
Denver
Houston
Philadelphia
MWR Strategies
April 2008

4. Nationwide Survey 1000 registered voters, 3.1% margin of error
Conducted March 10 to March 14, 2008
Random digit dialing to home phones
Stratified for region, gender
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April 2008

5. The issue context . . .
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April 2008

6. Where do we fit in? Environment is a third tier issue
It is tough to identify a candidate who has lost because of environmental attitude/votes
Climate change has become most important issue within the set, but even that has diminished somewhat recently
Reducing dependence on imported energy much more important.
Global warming not identified as most important global issue
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April 2008

7. “What is the most important issue facing the United States right now
“What is the most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
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April 2008

8. “What is the most/second most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
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April 2008

9. What about the environment?
2% identified as most important
2% identified is as 2nd most important
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April 2008

10. “What would you say is the most important environmental issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
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April 2008

11. “What will be the most important environmental issue or challenge facing the US in the long-term? (open code)
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April 2008

12. Wait a minute . . .
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13. “Which is the most pressing or important environmental issue facing the United States right now? (closed code) (from February 2007)
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14. “What will be the most pressing or important environmental issue facing the United States in the long-term? (closed code) (from February 2007)
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April 2008

15. . . . how does the priorities argument do?
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16. “Which of the following is the most pressing or urgent global problem?
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17. “How important is affordable energy to our economy?
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18. “What is the most important aspect of the energy we use? (open code)
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19. “Which is more important to you, addressing global warming or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?”
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20. “Which is more important to you, addressing global warming or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?”
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21. “Would you support a global warming plan that resulted in increasing our dependence on foreign sources of energy?”
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22. “America should put more emphasis on domestic energy sources like coal, even if that means we move more slowly on meeting environmental goals.”
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23. Economics Voters have no illusions about who pays for things
They have limited appetite for increased costs
And very nearly no appetite for job losses
females, self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush tend to care more about job loss
The tenuous economy overhangs the entire conversation

24. “If the federal government requires companies to take actions that cost them money, how likely is it that those companies will pass along increased costs to consumers in electric bills, gasoline prices, and home heating bills?”
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April 2008

25. “Is the economy strong enough right now to incur the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?”
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26. “Is the economy strong enough right now to incur the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?”
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April 2008

27. *70% of respondents responded $500 or less
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices, or higher heating bills, to address global warming?”
Mean = 554 dollars
Median = 50 dollars
*70% of respondents responded $500 or less
*18% responded more than $500
*35% responded zero

28. “How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
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April 2008

29. “How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
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April 2008

30. “How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
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April 2008

31. “(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be 1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you to support the legislation)?”
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April 2008

32. “(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be $1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you to support the legislation)?”
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April 2008

33. *65% of respondents responded 100,000 or less
“How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as much as 80%?”
Mean = 426,000
Median = 1,000
*65% of respondents responded 100,000 or less
*5% responded more than 1 million
*35% responded zero
* among those who think the US is doing better, 50% responded zero.
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April 2008

34. “How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as much as 80%?” (mean in thousands)
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April 2008

35. “I am going to read you five statements about the legislation
“I am going to read you five statements about the legislation. For each one, I would like you to tell me whether it makes more to support the legislation.”

36. “What percentage of our energy do you think comes from renewable or alternative energy sources?”
Mean = 23.6
Median = 18

37. *42% didn’t know or refused
“Can you tell me the how many billions of dollars the US government is spending each year to address climate change?”
Mean =
Median = 3.0
*42% didn’t know or refused

38. “Do you think carbon emissions have
“Do you think carbon emissions have in Europe/the US in the last 10 years?
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April 2008

39. “Who is doing a better job of addressing global warming?
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40. “I am going to read you a list of actions that the US government is currently doing to address climate change. For each one I would like you to tell me whether it is important.”
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41. “On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not at all certain and 10 is completely certain, how certain do you think the science of global warming is?”
Mean = 5.8
Median = 6.0
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April 2008

42. “On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not very urgent and 10 is extremely urgent, how urgent is it that we address global warming?”
Mean = 6.5
Median = 7.0
* self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush had medians of 10 and 9

43. “On that same scale, if you knew that efforts by the government to reduce global warming would result in the loss of some jobs nationwide, how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those job losses to be justifiable?”
Mean = 7.4
Median = 8.0
* The means among females, self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush in 2004 were above 8.0.
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April 2008

44. “On that same scale, if efforts by the government to reduce global warming resulted in higher prices for things like gasoline, electricity, and natural gas, how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those higher prices to be justifiable?”
Mean = 7.6
Median = 8.0
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April 2008

45. Version A “Which of the following is most likely to lead towards solutions to global warming and other environmental challenges?”
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46. Version B “Which of the following is most likely to lead to the technological improvements we need to address global warming?”
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47. Version B “Which of the following is most likely to lead to the technological improvements we need to address global warming?”
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April 2008

48. Solutions “And which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution? (from February 2007)
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49. Solutions “Which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution? (from January 2006)
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50. “The US should show leadership on global warming, even if nations like China and India do not follow our example.”
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51. “To help reduce carbon emissions, which of the following would you prefer?”
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April 2008