1. Demographic Trends and Prospects Presented by: Eduard Bos Health, Nutrition, and Population The World Bank John Bongaarts, Population Council, contributed slides

2. Demographic Trends and Prospects 1)Past trends in population size 2)Projections 3) Determinants of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration 4) Impact of AIDS epidemic 5) Changing age structures 6) Population policy options

5. China 1,2621,50519% India 1,0161,56154% Indonesia 21032052% Brazil 17024544% Pakistan 138292112% Bangladesh 13023077% Nigeria 127261106% 200020502000-2050 Population size (millions) Increase Country Projections of Population Size Selected Countries:2000-2050 Russia146114-22% Japan127105-21% Germany8267-17%

6. How Reliable are Demographic Projections Cohort component methodology: trends in vital rates projected separately Baseline data: accurate data determine short- term accuracy Assumptions about the future: past trends; no “unusual” events Longer term: increasing uncertainty Global, regional, country, subnational

7. The Next Billion

8. 2) Determinants of population change: fertility and mortality

12. Why Population Growth in LDCs Continues Fertility remains above the replacement level Declining mortality Population momentum due to a young age structure

14. 3) Impact of AIDS epidemic

15. Global Estimates of HIV Prevalence Number infected with HIV 936 million Percent of adults infected 0.31.2 % 1990 2000

20. Demographic impact of AIDS

21. How does HIV/AIDS affect demographic trends Mortality of adults (mostly 20-50) increases death rates Mortality of adults reduces number of women of childbearing age: fewer births Mortality of children increases death rates, reduces future size of adult population  Mortality indicators much worse  Dependency ratios not greatly affected

22. 4) Changing age structure Population Council

23. Age Structures

26. 5) Population policy options

27. 1)Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion u Strengthen family planning programs u Improve fertility regulation technology Causes of Population Growth Policy Options

31. 2) High desired Family size u Emphasize human development 1)Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion u Strengthen family planning programs u Improve fertility regulation technology Causes of Population Growth Policy Options

33. Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Demand for Births u Level of education u Status of women u Infant Mortality

37. 1) Unwanted fertility and unmet need for contraception and abortion u Strengthen family planning programs u Improve fertility regulation technology Causes of Population Growth Policy Options 2)High desired family size u Emphasize human development 3)Momentum of population growth u Delay childbearing