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Presentation on theme: "Disclaimer The information in this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in George Wimpey Plc or any other."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Disclaimer The information in this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in George Wimpey Plc or any other invitation or inducement to engage in investment activities. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance 2

3 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2005 Tuesday 21 February 2006

4 Welcome and introduction John Robinson Chairman

5 Agenda  Key messagesPeter Johnson  2005 financial reviewAndrew Carr-Locke  US business reviewPeter Johnson  UK business reviewPete Redfern  Group outlookPete Redfern 5

6 Key messages Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive

7 2005: US growth strategy paid off, offset by disappointing UK result  Weak market exposed challenges of short term landbank as well as weaknesses within our business  Bulk of UK business remains sound; those weaknesses have been addressed  UK soundly based to rebuild margins in stable and improved market  Morrison Homes has outperformed in a strong market  Management team is strong; internal succession ensures continuity of strategy 7

8 2005 financial review Andrew Carr-Locke Group Finance Director

9 2005 results £m Tax Profit before tax Dividend cover DPS NAV per share EPS 366.5437.6- 16% 17.6p16.0p+ 10% 3.7x4.9x- 64.3p78.4p- 18% 389p340p+ 14% 31% - 9 * restated for IFRS and land sales Interest (71.0)(59.9)+ 19% Operating profit 437.5497.5- 12% Turnover 3,003.22,976.0+ 1% 20052004*Change

10 2005 completions 10,678- 5%£188,600- 2%UK private 1,422+ 48%£98,600+ 10%UK affordable 12,100- 1%£178,000- 4%UK total 4,921+ 11%$312,700+ 8%US total 17,021+ 2%GROUP TOTAL NoChange£ / $Change CompletionsAve selling price 10

11 Turnover £m Operating profit Operating margin* Change £m Change 20052004 UK US Other TOTAL 2,157.6- 5%278.0- 32%12.9% 845.5+ 21%169.4+ 65% 18.0% 14.7% 20.0% 0.1-(9.9)- 33% 3,003.2+ 1%437.5- 12% Segmental analysis *Exchange rate in 2005 $/£=1.82, 2004 $/£=1.83 *UK operating profits stated after charging £5m of restructuring costs 11

12 Interest charge 12 £m Loans Pensions Derivatives Other TOTAL 50.048.0+ 4% 8.58.1+ 5% 5.3- 7.23.8+ 89% 71.059.9+ 19% 20052004Change

13 Yr to Dec 2004 Yr to Dec 2005 £m Cash flow summary Operating profit Land spend Land realisations Other working capital movements CASH INFLOW FROM OPERATIONS 497.5437.5 (935.1)(839.0) 702.1737.4 (88.3)(49.0) 176.2286.9 Interest Tax Dividends Other movements REDUCTION / (INCREASE) IN NET DEBT (49.2)(53.6) (91.3)(117.7) (33.7)(53.7) 20.8(38.8) 8.3(1.0) 13 Exchange rate effects (14.5)(24.1)

14 Balance sheet net assets Dec 2004* Dec 2005 Fixed assets and joint ventures Land Land creditors Other net operating assets Tax and provisions Net pension deficit TOTAL NET ASSETS EMPLOYED 36.457.6 1,932.32,153.4 (274.7)(380.5) 403.0469.9 (114.4)(104.9) (130.3)(129.2) 1,852.32,066.3 £m * restated for IFRS 14

15 Balance sheet financing 15 Shareholders’ funds £m Net debt £m Capital employed £m Gearing Interest cover - reported Interest cover - underlying ROACE 1,544.41,331.4 521.9520.9 2,066.31,852.3 34%39% 6.2x8.3x 8.8x10.4x 22.3%28.9% Dec 2005 Dec 2004 * restated for IFRS

16 5 year review 16 Group completions PBT £m Net worth £m Dividends per share Gearing 17,02116,654 16,57016,91714,437 366.5437.6 1,544.41,331.4 17.6p16.0p 34%39% 450.7378.2285.9152.0 1,439.11,168.4944.6783.3 16.0p 36% 12.25p 45% 9.1p 40% 8.25p 49% 20052004 200320022001 IASUK GAAP  Profits increased by 141%  Dividends annual growth rate 21%  Balance sheet strengthened

17 US business review Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive

18 2005 financial summary 18 * restated for IFRS and land sales Legal completions Comps excluding Atlanta Ave selling price Turnover Operating profit Operating margin 4,9214,422+ 11% 4,7974,110+ 17% $312,700$288,900+ 8% $1,538.8m$1,277.3m+ 20% $308.3m$188.3m+ 64% 20.0%14.7%+ 5.3pp 20052004*Change

19 Five year review Completions Operating margin % Operating profit* $m Turnover* $m ASP $ 2004 2005 2001 2002 2003 1,277.3188.314.7%4,422289,000 1,538.8308.320.0%4,921313,000 687.766.49.7%2,900238,000 804.780.710.0%3,197252,000 988.3118.612.0%3,661270,000 CAGR 22.3%46.8%--7.1% 19 * restated for IFRS and land sales

20 Margin  Gross margin up from 25% to 30%  average selling prices +8% but big mix changes  underlying house price inflation >10% in Florida, Phoenix, North California; <5% in Texas, Denver  increase in land costs offset by change in regional mix  impact of build cost inflation on margin ~4.5% - 5%  Overhead to sales stable at 10%  increased bonuses offset by scale efficiencies 20

21 Some industry comparisons : Company Est PBT margins 2005 asp 2005 increase % US GAAP $000 % Toll Brothers 21.6 654 13 NVR 21.0 376 13 Morrison 18.5 313 8 Standard Pacific 17.6 352 -6 DR Horton 17.0263 9 Hovnanian 16.7319 14 Pulte 15.8 316 10 Ryland 15.6274 9 Centex 14.4 297 10 Beazer 12.227117 Estimates from broker reports 21

22 Successful growth strategy  Focus on growth markets  Growth through satellites  Growth through product development  Addressing underperforming businesses  Landbank 22

23 Successful growth strategy  Focus on growth markets  Morrison markets account for 45% of job growth 49% of population growth 38% of 2005 H2 SF permits  Growth through satellites  Growth through product development  Addressing underperforming businesses  Landbank 23

24 Morrison Homes markets major beneficiaries of underlying trends 209 151 166 81 40 647 1,681 38% 1 3 2 6 12 SF Permits H2 2005 Rank Florida California Texas Arizona Colorado TOTAL Total US Morrison Markets 297 278 154 117 55 901 2,010 45% 1 2 3 4 18 Job Growth last 12 mths Rank 000s 24 404 290 388 199 63 1.344m 2.753m 49% 1 3 2 4 11 Population Growth Rank

25 Successful growth strategy  Focus on growth markets  Growth through satellites  2001new satellites in Jacksonville, Sarasota, Central Valley  2005 these satellites accounted for 20% completions  2005 new satellites in Daytona Beach, Fort Myers and Reno  Growth through product development  Addressing underperforming businesses  Landbank 25

26 Successful growth strategy  Focus on growth markets  Growth through satellites  Growth through product development  townhomes were >12% of Florida completions in 2005  townhome volumes expected to grow 2.5 times in 2006  Addressing underperforming businesses  Land bank 26

27 Successful growth strategy  Focus on growth markets  Growth through satellites  Growth through product development  Addressing underperforming businesses  Atlanta exited  Texas 2005 completions +47%  Texas order book at 31 December +55%  net reservations weeks 1-6 2006 +14%  Landbank 27

28 Successful growth strategy  Focus on growth markets  Growth through satellites  Growth through product development  Addressing underperforming businesses  Landbank  total plots at end 2005 23,514  % of plots used during the year 140  % of land for 2006 targeted completions 100  % of land for 2007 targeted completions 90 28

29 Landbank in place to deliver growth 29

30 Focus on growth markets balanced landbank to support growth 30 West Southeast Southwest 1,187 2,253 1,481 4,093 12,040 7,381 2005 compslandcompsland 1,130 2,092 1,200 3,997 10,573 7,009 compsland 832 1,684 1,145 3,125 8,816 5,886 20042003

31 Focus on growth markets growth in completions and landbank 31 West Southeast Southwest 5% 8% 23% 2% 14% 5% 2005/4 compslandcompsland 43% 34% 29% 31% 37% 25% compsland 832 1,684 1,145 3,125 8,816 5,886 2005/32003

32 Outlook economy, housing market - macro picture remains healthy  US economy remains strong  600,000 jobs created in last three months  consumer confidence at highest since June 2002  unemployment rate down to 4.7%  30 year fixed rate mortgage at 6.22%  Housing industry projected to remain at high levels  NAHB projects SF new home sales down 8.1% to 1.19m  that matches 2004 and is 10%> average 2002-2004  1.28m new owner households created to grow home ownership rate from 69% in 2004 to 70% in 2010 32

33 Outlook Morrison Homes - too early to call full year outlook  Outlets*+10%  Order book at 1 Jan 06*+20% in volume +36% in value  at margins and prices ahead of 2005 full year  Order book at end week 6*+19% in volume +36% in value  Sales  weeks 1-6-3% on 2005  sales rate0.93 vs 1.05  West down, Southeast flat, Southwest up * excluding Atlanta 33

34 UK business review Pete Redfern Deputy Group Chief Executive

35 Two key questions  Why have UK margins fallen in 2005?  What have we done to address these issues? 35

36 Two key questions  Why have UK margins fallen in 2005?  What have we done to address these issues? 36

37 Causes of margin reduction  Impact of tough market and mix on selling prices  affordable housing  smaller private product – houses and apartments  southern market significantly weaker  Habitual second half volume weighting reduced business flexibility  Impact of rising costs – mostly land, due to short term landbank  Underperforming businesses and sites affected overall margin performance 37

38 Margin movement Mix / volume impact Net operating expenses impact 2005 margin Build cost impact Land cost impact 2004 margin Sales pricing impact 12.9% 2005 18.0% (1.8%) (0.3%) (0.4%) (2.6%) 0.0% 38

39 2005 financial summary * restated for IFRS and land sales 39 Total completions Private completions Affordable completions Private ASP Total turnover £m Gross margin % Operating profit £m Operating margin % 12,100 10,678 12,232 11,274 1,422958 £188,600£193,400 2,157.62,277.9 21.5%26.1% 278.0409.4 12.9%18.0% 20052004*

40 2 key questions  Why have UK margins fallen significantly in 2005?  What have we done to address these issues? 40

41 Actions to improve margin performance  Put sales on front foot  improve quality of sales processes and performance  ensure sales are moving on all sites  lengthen order book to create urgency for customers  Improve H1/H2 volume balance  through sales catch up and focus on next six months  through build planning  Continue to improve land processes, culture and people  Drive down build and overhead costs  £20m of cost savings achieved (£2m in 2006)  further overhead reductions to come through  more to go on build costs in 2006 41

42 Actions to improve margin performance  Addressing underperforming businesses  challenging management, changing where necessary  new Management Team established - experienced housebuilding team  structure simplified, central drive and control, not more overhead  Laing business structure rationalised and absorbed  all UK businesses run on same model  two smallest subscale businesses closed  strong underlying Laing businesses and people retained  two brands nationally available to allow local differentiation for growth  Decision to withdraw from high rise City business  strong skills within business retained  releases £100m of cash over two years for reinvestment 42

43 2006 business structure 43  New business structure  North8  Midlands8  South9  TOTAL25  + 3 new satellites  Completions from 350 – 700 per business  Overheads before restructuring costs (£m) Bristol Manchester Liverpool Newcastle Edinburgh Glasgow Birmingham Leeds London Plymouth Aberdeen 200520042003 109118117

44 2005 market  Market has been difficult since mid 2004  total market volumes down 17.2% (source: Land Registry)  second hand market very slow  price sensitive and incentive led  In H1, North was strongest and South weakest  H2 started to show slow improvement  particularly in the last two months  particularly in South  Apartment market has been particularly price and product sensitive  impact c. 2.5% margin difference to average 44

45 Ave weekly sales rates GW 2003 – 2005 45 H2 sales create 32% growth in order book Nov/Dec sales remain strong due to focussed pressure

46 Net prices on reservations GW 2003 – 2005 46 Sales growth driven by performance not just price – cost 1% of net price Building order book will allow reduction in incentives

47 Product mix  Managing our apartment mix  2005 land approvals 30% apartments  margin hurdles increased on apartments in 2004  size down 5% and still being reduced  preferred range 10 - 15% more efficient in size/plotting PD completions Apartments 2 / 3 bed houses 4 / 5 bed houses 2005 36% 32% 100% 2004 31% 32% 37% 100% 47

48 Cost reduction  2005 cost saving programme  sub-contractor savings  replans of high cost sites/products  More potential for 2006  standard build detail eg floor systems  rationalisation of doors/fittings  option cost efficiencies  Preferred housetype range designed and in place  adopted first in new and underperforming businesses  cost per square foot 5% below average product 48  rationalisation of brick supply chain  rationalisation of site overheads  loading scaffolding/joist hangers  kerb remedials  sales and showhome costs

49 Landbank North Midlands 16,447 13,878 5,112 4,662 2005200420052004 Owned and controlled plots Strategic acres 18,615 11,882 4,934 5,529 TOTAL 50,98514,16951,11917,571 49 Landbank broadly maintained, North land prices still inflating until late 2005 Strategic landbank and process challenged – sifting sand, finding some nuggets South 20,66020,6227,1084,395

50 Owned land cost and value Opening landbank Acquired net* Completions* Closing landbank 2005 45.6 51.0 (47.3) 47.2 2004 44.6 46.8 (44.3) 45.6 Cost Per Plot (£000) *Plot cost high in year, driven by South/North mix ASP £000s Cost per plot £000s 2005 completions Landbank Land value % ASP 178.0181.2 47.347.2 26.6%26.0% Closing plot cost marginally lower than 2005 completions Landbank average selling price higher than completions due to South mix 50

51 Example sites acquired in 2005 51 Newton Leys Lawley, Telford Masterton, Dunfermline 695 1,167 1,650 No of plots 66 71 90 No of acres 17.3% 19.6% 20.7% Cost per plot as % of ASP

52 UK objectives  Margin improvement objective for H2 2006  move net prices forward having strengthened sales position  continuous cost reduction plan to hold inflation or better  show improvements from underperforming businesses  Medium term volume growth  2006 volumes will be less H2 weighted – foundation for housebuilder growth culture  existing structure has ability for growth -undersize businesses -three new satellites -improvements in land buying structure and people 52

53 Outlook  Market recovery seen in Nov/Dec continues  RICS survey shows completions up 15% year on year  more confident, committed visitors  outlets below last years peak at 292 (2005: 320)  sales rate still maintained at 0.96  order book at lower margins, starting to move net prices on new reservations  Opportunities in both material supply and subcontract costs, despite energy pressures 53

54 Group outlook Pete Redfern Deputy Group Chief Executive

55 Group outlook  US  economy and housing market projected to remain healthy  although too early to call full year outlook  strong forward order book  sales remaining sound  UK  market recovery seen in Nov/Dec continues  further cost saving opportunities identified and in place  strong forward order book starting to reduce use of incentives 55

56 Forthcoming events  AGM statement and trading update20 April  Pre-close trading updateW/C 3 July  Management dinnerW/C 3 July  Interim results1 August  Site visitOctober 56

57 George Wimpey Plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2005 APPENDIX

58 Pensions  UK defined benefit scheme closed to new members in 2002  Investment position  68% fixed interest  32% equities  Mortality assumptions fully updated following detailed study of recent mortality experience of the Scheme  March 2005 Actuarial Valuation  gross deficit £148m  net £104m  IAS 19 valuation 2005  gross £185m(2004 £186m)  net £129m(2004 £130m)  Deficit funding contributions paid for 2004 and 2005, agreed contributions for 2006 of £15m  Total contribution (including deficit funding) £21m (2004 £23m) 57

59 Undeveloped land disposals 58 Land sales UK US TOTAL Profit (loss) UK US TOTAL 24.322.7 13.27.0 37.529.7 15.49.3 1.6(0.1) 17.09.2 20052004 £m  Revenue from land disposals is no longer included in turnover  There is no impact on reported operating profits

60 Group reservations UK private UK affordable 11,318 1,881 10,640 1,278 3072950.710.69 US TOTAL GROUP TOTAL 5,211 18,410 UK TOTAL13,19911,918 4,822 16,740 951001.050.93 20052004 ReservationsAve sites Per outlet / per week 2005200420052004 59

61 UK – turnover analysis 2004 YearH2H1 11,2746,6314,643 193.4192.4194.9 2,1811,276905 958508450 89.892.585.9 864739 Private - volume turnover £m Affordable - volume ave price £000s turnover £m Other turnover £m 1192 60 2005 YearH2H1 10,6786,5244,154 188.6184.8194.5 2,0141,206808 1,4221,000422 98.6103.387.7 14010337 422 12,2327,1395,093 185.3 Total - volume ave price £000s turnover £m 2,2781,332946 12,1007,5244,576 178.0174.0184.6 2,1581,311847 ave price £000s

62 UK - margin analysis 61 * restated for IFRS and land sales 20042005 Year*H2*H1*YearH2H1 595.4348.0247.4464.2265.6198.6 26.1% 26.2%21.5%20.3%23.4% (75.9)(39.7)(36.2)(86.2)(45.7)(40.5) (119.4)(61.4)(58.0)(115.4)(58.4)(57.0) 409.4253.6155.8278.0171.3106.7 18.0%19.1%16.5%12.9%13.1%12.6% Gross profit £m Operating profit £m Overheads / JVs £m Operating margin % Gross profit % Direct selling £m Land profits £m 2.615.49.85.69.36.7

63 UK - PD product mix 2005 YearH2H1 Apartments 36%37%34% 2 / 3 bed houses 32% 4 / 5 bed houses 32%31%34% 100 2004 YearH2H1 31%29%32% 29%35% 37%42%33% 100 Completions 62

64 UK – PD activity analysis 20042005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave house size sqft 1,0331,0081,0699949801,015 Ave selling price £ / sqft 187190182189188192 63

65 UK - PD price mix % £0 – 50k £51 – 100k £101 – 150k £151 – 200k £201 – 250k £251 – 300k £301 – 500k £500k + TOTAL 64 20042005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 000 674 303130 32 181719 768 666 111 100 000 777 29 31 30 181918 777 768 111 100 % completions by price band £000s

66 Legals 2004 2005 Legals Size sqft ASP £000 North 4,1821,084167.5 3,8131,043167.0 Midlands 3,1971,018177.9 3,079965170.2 South 3,6061,012232.9 3,599989225.6 TOTAL 11,2741,033193.410,678994188.6 Size sqft ASP £000 City 289729249.0 187766273.4 65 UK - PD geographic mix

67 UK - landbank by region Owned and controlled plots 20052004 Strategic acres 20052004 North Midlands South 16,44718,615 13,87811,882 20,66020,622 5,1124,934 4,6625,529 4,3957,108 TOTAL50,98551,11914,16917,571 66

68 UK - short term land (private & affordable) 20042005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period 33,55934,19133,55937,22239,78437,222 Net acquired 15,89510,1705,72514,3197,1817,138 Legal completions (12,232)(7,139)(5,093)(12,100)(7,524)(4,576) End of period 37,222 34,19139,441 39,784 CONTROLLED 13,897 16,71011,544 14,596 TOTAL LANDBANK 51,119 50,90150,985 54,380 Plots OWNED 67

69 UK - owned land (private & affordable) Plots 2004 2005 Plots Cost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank 33,55944.61,496 37,22245.61,698 Additions 15,89546.8744 14,31951.0733 Completions (12,232)(44.3)(542) (12,100)(47.3)(572) End of period 37,22245.61,698 39,44147.21,859 Short term Cost per plot £k Value £m Strategic AcresValue £m AcresValue £m End of period 17,57185 14,16971 68

70 Morrison Homes - turnover analysis 2005 YearH2H1 Volume 4,9212,9251,996 ASP $000s 313320302 Turnover $m 1,539936603 2004* YearH2H1 4,4222,7081,714 289296278 1,277801476 69 * restated for land sales

71 Morrison Homes - margin analysis 2004*2005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross profit $m316.9200.7116.2456.5288.2168.3 Gross profit %24.6%24.9%24.0%29.2%30.6%27.1% Selling expenses $m(64.0)(37.3)(26.7)(72.8)(41.2)(31.6) Overhead costs $m(64.5)(35.0)(29.5)(77.0)(40.6)(36.4) Operating profit $m188.3128.260.1308.3206.4101.9 Operating margin %14.7%16.0%12.7%20.0%22.0%16.9% 70 * restated for IFRS and land sales Land profits $m(0.1)(0.2)0.11.6-

72 Morrison Homes - activity analysis 20042005 YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave house size sqft 2,3862,3712,4092,2992,2632,355 Ave selling price $ / sqft 121.1124.8115.3136.0141.0128.2 71

73 Morrison Homes - price mix 171519 2019 $0 - <200k 171420242624 $201 – 250k 17 1916 $251 – 300k 161913141613 $301 – 350k 121311 12 $351 – 400k 9998410 $401 – 450k 666314 $451 – 500k 665333 $500k + 100 TOTAL YearH2H1YearH2H1 20052004 % completions by price band $000s 72

74 Morrison Homes - regional performance TOTAL 1,2771,539188.314.7308.320.0 73 - Corporate (20.1)-(23.7)- * restated for IFRS and land sales Turnover 2005 $m 2004 $m 453517 553681 284365 West Southeast Southwest 2005 $m 2004* $m 74.2 26.0 Operating profitOperating margin 2005 % 2004 % 23.9 13.4 9.1 139.7 141.3 51.0 27.0 20.7 14.0 108.2 Exclude land sales (13)(24)----

75 Morrison Homes - completions 2005 YearH2H1 West 1,187727460 Southeast 2,2531,321932 Southwest 1,481877604 TOTAL 4,9212,9251,996 2004 YearH2H1* 1,130728402 2,0921,276816 1,200704496 4,4222,7081,714 *restated to reflect new regional profile 74

76 Morrison Homes - average selling price 2005Change West Southeast Southwest TOTAL $436,000 $302,000 $246,000 $313,000 9.6% 15.7% 5.6% 8.3% 2004 $398,000 $261,000 $233,000 $289,000 75

77 Morrison Homes - landbank by region Owned and controlled plots 20052004 West Southeast Southwest 4,0933,997 12,04010,573 7,3817,009 TOTAL23,51421,579 76

78 Morrison Homes - short term land 2005 YearH2H1 End of period 2,702 3,058 TOTAL LANDBANK 23,514 22,719 LAND SPEND $m 303152151 OWNED AND OPTIONS 2004 YearH2H1 Start of period 18,89219,66118,892 Additions 6,8414,0762,765 Legal completions (4,921)(2,925)(1,996) End of period 20,812 19,661 15,30417,45615,304 8,0104,1443,866 (4,422)(2,708)(1,714) 18,892 17,456 2,687 2,606 21,579 20,062 282174108 CONTROLLED 77

79 Impact of dollar Morrison $ op profit Ave exchange rate Morrison £ turnover 20052004Change $188.3m$308.3m+ 63.7% $/£ = 1.83$/£ = 1.82 £698.0m£845.5m+ 21.1% Morrison $ turnover$1,277.3m$1,538.8m+ 20.5% Morrison £ op profit£102.9m£169.4m+ 64.6% 78


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